2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

2021

2021/35 STEPHANIE DAIMER, ATTILA HAVAS, KERSTIN CUHLS, MERVE YORULMAZ, PETAR VRGOVIC Multiple futures for society, research, and innovation in the European Union: Jumping ahead to 2038 KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/35 Multiple futures for society, research, and innovation in the European Union: Jumping ahead to 2038 STEPHANIE DAIMER, ATTILA HAVAS, KERSTIN CUHLS, MERVE YORULMAZ, PETAR VRGOVIC

We contribute to the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) literature in two ways: (i) we consider how societal aspects are taken into account in research and innovation activities in four fundamentally different futures, as opposed to analysing current practices; and (ii) put the emphasis on the framework conditions, as opposed to focussing on RRI principles and instruments. In the Kingdom of RRI citizens participate directly in decision-making processes; Fortress Europe depicts a libertarian system; Failed Democracy is a populist regime; while Benevolent Green Eurocrats describes a technocratically coordinated strong state. The RRI concept is ignored, manipulated, or rather selectively applied in the latter three scenarios. The scenarios offer novel insights into the nature and repercussions of possible policy problems. We discuss issues related to efficacy and efficiency of policy-making; legitimacy of research and innovation activities; societal involvement; equity; and freedom of research in each scenario. We also posit that there is room for safeguarding meaningful interactions between the societal and professional actors in an innovation system even in the harshest framework conditions.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/37 ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI - MORAG HENDERSON - NIKKI SHURE Intergenerational educational mobility – the role of non-cognitive skills KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/37 Intergenerational educational mobility – the role of non-cognitive skills ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI - MORAG HENDERSON - NIKKI SHURE

 

While it has been shown that university attendance is strongly predicted by parental education, we know very little about why some potential ‘first in family’ or first-generation students make it to university and others do not. This paper looks at the role of non-cognitive skills in the university participation of this disadvantaged group in England. We find that conditional on national, high-stakes exam scores and various measures of socioeconomic background, having higher levels of non-cognitive skills, specifically locus of control, academic self-concept, work ethic, and self-esteem, in adolescence is positively related to intergenerational educational mobility to university. Our results indicate that having higher non-cognitive skills helps potential first in family university students to compensate for their relative disadvantage, and they are especially crucial for boys. The most important channel of this relationship seems to be through educational attainment at the end of compulsory schooling.

 

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/33 LÁSZLÓ LŐRINCZ Do co-worker networks increase or decrease productivity differences? An agent-based model KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/33 Do co-worker networks increase or decrease productivity differences? An agent-based model LÁSZLÓ LŐRINCZ

Do labor mobility, and co-worker networks contribute to convergence or divergence between regions? Based on the previous literature, labor mobility contributes to knowledge transfer between firms. Therefore, mobility may contribute to decreasing productivity differences, while limited mobility to sustaining higher differences. The effect of co-worker networks, however, can be twofold in this process. They transmit information about potential jobs, which may enhance mobility of workers, even between regions, and this enhanced mobility may contribute to levelling differences. But if mobility between regions involves movement costs, co-worker networks may concentrate locally that may contribute to persistence of regional differences. In this paper we build an agent-based model of labor mobility across firms and regions with knowledge spillovers that reflects key empirical observations on labor markets. We analyze the impact of network information provided about potential employers in this model and find that it contributes to increasing inter-regional mobility, and subsequently to decreasing regional differences. We also find that density of co-worker networks, and also their regional concentration decrease, if network information is available.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/34 PÉTER CSÓKA – P. JEAN-JACQUES HERINGS Uniqueness of Clearing Payment Matrices in Financial Networks KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/34 Uniqueness of Clearing Payment Matrices in Financial Networks PÉTER CSÓKA – P. JEAN-JACQUES HERINGS

We study bankruptcy problems in financial networks in the presence of general bankruptcy laws. The set of clearing payment matrices is shown to be a lattice, which guarantees the existence of a greatest and a least clearing payment. Multiplicity of clearing payment matrices is both a theoretical and a practical concern. We present a new condition for uniqueness that generalizes all the existing conditions proposed in the literature. Our condition depends on the decomposition of the financial network into strongly connected components. A strongly connected component which contains more than one agent is called a cycle and the involved agents are called cyclical agents. If there is a cycle without successors, then one of the agents in such a cycle should have a positive endowment. The division rule used by a cyclical agent with a positive endowment should be positive monotonic and the rule used by a cyclical agent with a zero endowment should be strictly monotonic. Since division rules involving priorities are not positive monotonic, uniqueness of the clearing payment matrix is a much bigger concern for such division rules than for proportional ones. We also show how uniqueness of clearing payment matrices is related to continuity of bankruptcy rules.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/32 ISTVÁN KÓNYA Financial crisis and inequality in Hungary KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/32 Financial crisis and inequality in Hungary ISTVÁN KÓNYA

The goal of this paper is to analyze the connections Hungarian income and wealth distribution on the one hand, and the macroeconomics impacts of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on the other hand. To do this, I build a heterogenous agent, dynamic, general equilibrium model, which I calibrate using Hungarian income distribution data before the crisis. The model is then used to study both the impact of the financial crisis on income and wealth inequality, and the role of income and wealth inequality in the macroeconomic developments after the crisis. Results indicate that (i) the long-run capital stock rises, and the interest rate falls, but the effect is quantitatively small; (ii) the long-run income and wealth distributions only change moderately; and (iii) the short-run consumption response of low-wealth household is very strong, and drives a sizable aggregate consumption drop as well.

Legfrissebb változat (2021.08.19.)
2021/31 Boza István Wage Structure and Inequality: The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/31 Wage Structure and Inequality: The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity Boza István

This study aims to contribute to the literature of firms and occupations as prominent drivers of wage-inequality in multiple ways. First, we synthesize novel modelling approaches of recent studies in the field and use administrative linked employer-employee panel data from an Eastern European country, Hungary, to assess the contribution of individual, firm and job heterogeneity – and their interactions – to overall wage inequality. Consistent with earlier findings from Western Europe, Scandinavia, the US and Brazil, we show that firm heterogeneity provides around 22%, individual heterogeneity 50%, and occupational heterogeneity 8% of overall wage dispersion, with wage sorting between firms and individuals in itself explaining around 9%. Notably, around half of this contribution is accountable to observable sub-components of individual and firm wage effects. Also, the same magnitude of assortativity can be found between individuals and occupations. Utilizing unique features of our data, we compare mathematics and literature test score records of 10th grade students to their future labor market outcomes, finding a positive correlation between test scores and future firm value added, a direct evidence for assortative matching in productivity. Finally we assess sorting along observable characteristics, such as gender, education, occupation or age of workers, and the ownership of employers.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/30 ANDRÁS SIMONOVITS Longevity gap and public pensions: a minimal model KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/30 Longevity gap and public pensions: a minimal model ANDRÁS SIMONOVITS

The strong and increasing positive correlation between lifetime income and life expectancy (the longevity gap) has recently been widely studied. In this paper we employ the simplest, minimal model to demonstrate the impact of this long-neglected fact on the various types of public pension systems, especially on the issue of progressivity and neutrality.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/29 ZSOLT BIHARY – PÉTER CSÓKA – PÉTER KERÉNYI – ALEXANDER SZIMAYER Self-respecting worker in the gig economy: A dynamic principal-agent model KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/29 Self-respecting worker in the gig economy: A dynamic principal-agent model ZSOLT BIHARY – PÉTER CSÓKA – PÉTER KERÉNYI – ALEXANDER SZIMAYER

We introduce a dynamic principal-agent model to understand the nature of contracts between an employer and an independent gig worker. We model the worker’s self-respect with an endogenous participation constraint; he accepts a job offer if and only if its utility is at least as large as his reference value, which is based on the average of previously realized wages. If the dynamically changing reference value capturing the worker’s demand is too high, then no contract is struck until the reference value hits a threshold. Below the threshold, contracts are offered and accepted, and the worker’s wage demand follows a stochastic process. We apply our model to different labor market structures and investigate first-best and second-best solutions. We show that a far-sighted employer may sacrifice instantaneous profit to regulate the agent’s demand. Employers who can afford to stall production due to a lower subjective discount rate will obtain higher profits. Our model captures the worker’s bargaining power by a vulnerability parameter that measures the rate at which his wage demand decreases when unemployed. With a low vulnerability parameter, the worker can afford to go unemployed and need not take a job at all costs. Conversely, a worker with high vulnerability can be exploited by the employer, and in this case our model also exhibits self-exploitation.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/28 PAWEL BUKOWSKI – GREGORY CLARK – ATTILA GÁSPÁR – RITA PETŐ Social Mobility and Political Regimes: Intergenerational Mobility in Hungary, 1949-2017 KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/28 Social Mobility and Political Regimes: Intergenerational Mobility in Hungary, 1949-2017 PAWEL BUKOWSKI – GREGORY CLARK – ATTILA GÁSPÁR – RITA PETŐ

This paper measures social mobility rates in Hungary 1949-2017, for upper class and underclass families, using surnames to measure social status. In these years there were two very different social regimes. The first was the Hungarian People’s Republic, 1949-1989, a Communist regime with an avowed aim of favouring the working class. Then the modern liberal democracy, 1989-2020, a free-market economy. We find five surprising things. First, social mobility rates were low for both upper- and lower-class families 1949-2017, with an underlying intergenerational status correlation of 0.6-0.8. Second, social mobility rates under communism were the same as in the subsequent capitalist regime. Third, the Romani minority throughout both periods showed even lower social mobility rates. Fourth, the descendants of the noble class in Hungary in the eighteenth century were still significantly privileged in 1949 and later. And fifth, while social mobility rates did not change measurably during the transition, the composition of the political elite changed fast and sharply.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/27 ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI - MORAG HENDERSON - NIKKI SHURE The labor market returns to ‘first in family’ university graduates KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/27 The labor market returns to ‘first in family’ university graduates ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI - MORAG HENDERSON - NIKKI SHURE

We examine how first in family (FiF) graduates (those whose parents do not have university degrees) fare on the labor market in England. We find that among women, FiF graduates earn 7.4% less on average than graduate women whose parents have a university degree. For men, we do not find a FiF wage penalty. A decomposition of the wage difference between FiF and non-FiF graduates reveals that FiF men earn higher returns on their endowments than non-FiF men and thus compensate for their relative social disadvantage, while FiF women do not. We also show that a substantial share of the graduate gender wage gap is due to, on the one hand, women being more likely to be FiF than men and, on the other hand, that the FiF wage gap is gendered. We provide some context, offer explanations, and suggest implications of these findings.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/26 ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI – ÁGNES SZABÓ-MORVAI Confidence in public institutions is critical in containing the COVID-19 pandemic KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/26 Confidence in public institutions is critical in containing the COVID-19 pandemic ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI – ÁGNES SZABÓ-MORVAI

This paper investigates the relative importance of confidence in public institutions in explaining cross-country differences in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We extend the related literature by employing regression and machine learning methods to identify the most critical predictors of deaths attributed to the pandemic. We find that a one standard deviation increase (e.g., the actual difference between the US and Finland) in confidence is associated with 350.9 (95% CI -531.922 – -169.831, p=0.000) fewer predicted deaths per million inhabitants. Confidence in public institutions is one of the most important predictors of deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared to country-level measures of individual health risks, the health system, demographics, economic and political development, and social capital. Our results suggest that effective policy implementation requires citizens to cooperate with their governments, and willingness to cooperate relies on confidence in public institutions.

 

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2021/25 Tamás Keller – Károly Takács – Felix Elwert Yes, You Can! Effects of Transparent Admission Standards on High School Track Choice: A Randomized Field Experiment KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2021/25 Yes, You Can! Effects of Transparent Admission Standards on High School Track Choice: A Randomized Field Experiment Tamás Keller – Károly Takács – Felix Elwert

High school track choice determines college access in many countries. We hypothesize that some qualified students avoid the college-bound track simply because they overestimate admission requirements. To test this hypothesis, we designed a randomized field experiment that communicated the admission standards of local secondary schools on the academic track to students in Hungary before the application deadline. We targeted the subset of students (“seeds”) who occupied the most central position in the classroom-social networks, aiming to detect both direct effects on the track choice of targeted seeds and spillover effects on their untreated peers. We found neither a direct effect nor a spillover effect on students’ applications or admissions on average. Further analyses, however, revealed theoretically plausible heterogeneity in the direct causal effect of the intervention on the track choice of targeted seeds. Providing information about admission standards increased applications and admissions to secondary schools on the academic track among seeds who had a pre-existing interest in the academic track but were unsure of their chances of admission. This demonstrates that publicizing admissions standards can set students on a more ambitious educational trajectory. We discuss implications for theory and policy.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
  • Események

    • KTI szeminárium : Drucker Luca (CEU) -Meritocracy and Persistent Luck

      2021.09.30.
      09:00 - 11:00

      Helyszín: Az előadást hibrid formában tartjuk meg : a személyes részvétel mellett (helyszín : KRTK Közgazdaságtudományi Intézet, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4., K13-K14 terem) zoomon keresztül is be lehet kapcsolódni. Az ehhez tartozó link külső érdeklődők számára a kti.titkarsag@krtk.hu e-mail címen igényelhető és csütörtök délután válik elérhetővé. Abstract: In a meritocratic society inequality in economic outcomes that reflects differences in individual achievements is considered fair. However, a particular achievement is not equally ...   Read More »

    • KTI szeminárium : Győrfi Anita (Vienna Graduate School of Economics ) – Estimating gender differences in returns to elite schools

      2021.10.07.
      13:00 - 15:00

      Helyszín: Az előadást hibrid formában tartjuk meg : a személyes részvétel mellett (helyszín : KRTK Közgazdaságtudományi Intézet, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4., K11-K12 terem) zoomon keresztül is be lehet kapcsolódni. Az ehhez tartozó link külső érdeklődők számára a kti.titkarsag@krtk.hu e-mail címen igényelhető és csütörtök délután válik elérhetővé. Abstract: The paper examines gender differences in standardized test scores in an elite school environment by using Hungarian data. Raw test score averages suggest ...   Read More »

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