Megjelent Lengyel Balázs és szerzőtársai cikke az Economic Geography folyóiratban

Understanding Regional Branching: Knowledge Diversification via Inventor and Firm Collaboration Networks

Dieter F. Kogler, Adam Whittle, Keungoui Kim, Balázs Lengyel

Abstract

The diversification of regions into new technologies is driven by the degree of relatedness to existing capabilities already present in the region. In cases where opportunities for diversification are rather limited, external knowledge that spills over from neighboring regions or from farther away might become an important driver of regional diversification. Despite the relative importance of interregional knowledge flows via collaborative work, we still have a very limited understanding of how collaboration networks across regions might facilitate diversification processes. The present study investigates the diversification patterns of European metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions into new knowledge domains via technology classes reported in patent applications to the European Patent Office. The findings indicate that externally oriented inventor collaboration networks increase the likelihood that a new technology specialization enters a region, but this external orientation is less important for related diversification than for unrelated diversification. Further, the results demonstrate that interregional collaboration networks help diversification into unrelated technologies if external knowledge sourcing is based on a diverse set of regions and if collaboration is intense within companies located in distinct regions. Within-firm collaborations across regions can compensate for missing related skills in metropolitan and in nonmetropolitan regions alike but are especially important in nonmetropolitan regions. These results provide new evidence about the importance of knowledge flows within multilocation firms in the technological knowledge diversification of regions.

1970

Megjelent Hajdu Tamás tanulmánya a Population and Environment folyóiratban

The effect of temperature on birth rates in Europe

Hajdu Tamás

Abstract

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run.

1970

Megjelent Bareith Tibor és szerzőtársai cikke a Risks folyóiratban

Navigating Inflation Challenges: AI-Based Portfolio Management Insights

Tibor Bareith, Tibor Tatay, László Vancsura

Abstract

After 2010, the consumer price index fell to a low level in the EU. In the euro area, it remained low between 2010 and 2020. The European Central Bank has even had to take action against the emergence of deflation. The situation changed significantly in 2021. Inflation jumped to levels not seen for 40 years in the EU. Our study aims to use artificial intelligence to forecast inflation. We also use artificial intelligence to forecast stock index changes. Based on the forecasts, we propose portfolio reallocation decisions to protect against inflation. The forecasting literature does not address the importance of structural breaks in the time series, which, among other things, can affect both the pattern recognition and prediction capabilities of various machine learning models. The novelty of our study is that we used the Zivot–Andrews unit root test to determine the breakpoints and partitioned the time series into training and testing datasets along these points. We then examined which database partition gives the most accurate prediction. This information can be used to re-balance the portfolio. Two different AI-based prediction algorithms were used (GRU and LSTM), and a hybrid model (LSTM–GRU) was also included to investigate the predictability of inflation. Our results suggest that the average error of the inflation forecast is a quarter of that of the stock market index forecast. Inflation developments have a fundamental impact on equity and government bond returns. If we obtain a reliable estimate of the inflation forecast, we have time to rebalance the portfolio until the inflation shock is incorporated into government bond returns. Our results not only support investment decisions at the national economy level but are also useful in the process of rebalancing international portfolios.

Keywords: portfolio management; inflation; time series forecast; neural networks; deep learning; Zivot–Andrews unit root test

1970

Megjelent Gáspár Attila és szerzőtársai cikke a Plos One folyóiratban

Why are some countries rich and others poor? development and validation of the attributions for Cross-Country Inequality Scale (ACIS)

Michela Vezzoli, Roberta Rosa Valtorta, Attila Gáspár, Carmen Cervone, Federica Durante, Anne Maass, Caterina Suitner

Abstract

Understanding lay theories on the causes of economic inequality is the first step to comprehending why people tolerate, justify, or react against it. Accordingly, this paper aims to develop and validate with two cross-sectional studies the Attributions for Cross-Country Inequality Scale (ACIS), which assesses how people explain cross-country economic inequality–namely, the uneven distribution of income and wealth between poor and rich countries. After selecting and adapting items from existing scales of attributions for poverty and wealth, in Study 1, we tested the factorial structure of this initial pool of items in three countries with different levels of economic development and inequality, namely, Italy (n = 246), the UK (n = 248), and South Africa (n = 228). Three causal dimensions emerged from the Exploratory Factor Analysis: “rich countries” (blaming the systematic advantage of and exploitation by rich countries), “poor countries” (blaming the dispositional inadequacy and faults of poor countries), and “fate” (blaming destiny and luck). The retained items were administered in Study 2 to three new samples from Italy (n = 239), the UK (n = 249), and South Africa (n = 248). Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) corroborated the factorial structure of the ACIS, and Multi-Group CFA supported configural and metric invariances of the scale across countries. In addition, we show internal consistency and construct validity of the scale: the scale correlates with relevant constructs (e.g., beliefs about cross-country inequality and ideological orientation) and attitudes toward relevant policies related to international redistribution and migration. Overall, the scale is a valid instrument to assess causal attribution for cross-national inequality and is reliable across countries. By focusing on resource distribution from an international perspective, this scale will allow researchers to broaden the discussion on economic inequality to a global level.

1970

Megjelent Nemes Gusztáv cikke a Parola folyóiratban

Megfizetjük? – a fenntartható élet tudásgazdasága I.

Nemes Gusztáv

Parola – Közösségfejlesztők Egyesülete – 2023/4 szám

Az alternatív, fenntarthatóbb, a civilizációs ártalmakra és az ökológiai lábnyomra jobban figyelő életmód iránti érdeklődés világszerte gyorsan nő. A lehetséges ökológiai katasztrófa árnyékában egyre több egyén, család és közösség szeretne változtatni fogyasztási szokásain, életvitelén. Erre a trendre építve talán esély van mélyreható társadalmi, kulturális változások elérésére, illetve arra, hogy a jelenleg uralkodó, növekedésre és technológiai megoldásokra építő, mechanisztikus rendszertől egy új, ökológiai paradigma felé mozduljunk el, ami a természeti erőforrások kiaknázása helyett a bolygó ökológiai rendszereinek fenntarthatóságára összpontosít.

Az éghajlatváltozás sürgető globális kihívás, az emberekben kortól, társadalmi státusztól függetlenül növekvő aggodalmat vált ki. Egy nemrégiben végzett nemzetközi felmérés szerint a fiatalok 65%-a aggódik az éghajlatváltozás miatt, és 45%-uk szenved az ezzel kapcsolatos szorongástól. A fenyegetettség érzése növeli a közösségek ellenálló készségét (resilience), és ösztönöz a változtatásra.

Cikkünk bevezetője egy négyrészes sorozatnak, mely a fenntartható élethez kapcsolódó tudást járja körül, tudásgazdasági szempontból. A cikk hangsúlyozza az alternatív, fenntartható életmód iránti növekvő érdeklődést, kitér az éghajlatváltozás globális kihívásaira, valamint az alternatív élelmiszerrendszerek fontosságára. Rávilágítunk a tudás és innováció szerepére a fenntarthatóság terén, különféle tudásrendszerek közötti különbségekre, és az ökológiai tudatosság terjedésének kihívásaira. A cikksorozat tervezett további részei bemutatják (1) Hideghegyi Menedék tudásgazdasági tevékenységét; (2) a fenntartható tudásgazdaság hazai jövőképeit és az odavezető utakat; (3) valamint egy a témában tervezett akciókutatás vázlatát. A sorozat célja, hogy mélyebb betekintést nyújtson és hozzájáruljon a fenntartható élet és tudásgazdaság alakulásának megértéséhez.

1970

Megjelent Cseh Ágnes és szerzőtársa publikációja a Games and Economic Behavior folyóiratban

Popular matchings with weighted voters

Klaus Heeger, Ágnes Cseh

Abstract

We consider a natural generalization of the well-known POPULAR MATCHING problem where every vertex has a weight. We call a matching 𝑀 more popular than matching 𝑀′ if the weight of vertices preferring 𝑀 to 𝑀′ is larger than the weight of vertices preferring 𝑀′ to 𝑀. For this case, we show that it is NP-hard to find a popular matching. Our main result is a polynomial-time algorithm that delivers a popular matching or a proof for its non-existence in instances where all vertices on one side have weight 𝑐 for some 𝑐 > 3 and all vertices on the other side have weight 1.

Keywords: Popular matching, Stable matching, Complexity, Algorithm

1970

Megjelent Hajdu Tamás, Krekó Judit és Tóth G. Csaba közös tanulmánya a Scientific Reports folyóiratban

Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Hajdu Tamás, Krekó Judit, Tóth G. Csaba

Abstract

Using data for 201 regions (NUTS 2) in Europe, we examine the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the mortality inequalities between regions changed between 2020 and 2022. We show that over the three years of the pandemic, not only did the level of excess mortality rate change considerably, but also its geographical distribution. Focusing on life expectancy as a summary measure of mortality conditions, we find that the variance of regional life expectancy increased sharply in 2021 but returned to the pre-pandemic level in 2022. The 2021 increase was due to a much higher-than-average excess mortality in regions with lower pre-pandemic life expectancy. While the life expectancy inequality has returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, the observed life expectancy in almost all regions is far below that expected without the pandemic.

1970

Megjelent Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter és szerzőtársuk tanulmánya a The Econometrics of Multi-dimensional Panels folyóiratban

Multi-dimensional Panels in Health Economics with an Application on Antibiotic Consumption

Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter, Kungl Nóra

Abstract

Variation in healthcare use and health outcomes is a major concern for health policy. The availability of multi-dimensional administrative panel data sets has facilitated the study of the sources of variations. This chapter reviews the health economics literature using multi-dimensional panel data, focusing primarily on applications that decompose the variation in healthcare use into demand-side and supply-side (place- or provider-related) factors. Following the literature review, these methods are illustrated through the analysis of place- and patient-specific determinants of antibiotic consumption in Hungary. Finally, multi-dimensional panel data is applied to study the association between primary care availability and the use of antibiotics.

1970

Megjelent Biró Péter és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Cenral European Journal of Operations Research folyóiratban

Optimization methods and algorithms

Péter Biró, Sándor Bozóki, Tamás Király, Alexandru Kristály

Abstract

Recent results of three areas, pickup and delivery, optimal mass transportation, matching under preferences are highlighted. The topics themselves have been selected from the active research fields of Hungarian Operations Research. We also provide a short summary of selected research results from the 34th Hungarian Operations Research Conference, held in Cegléd, Hungary, August 31–September 2, 2021.

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1970

Megjelent Fertő Imre és szerzőtársai a Water Recources Management folyóiratban

Combined Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Ground-Level Impacts of Management Transfer to Poor Farmers in Developing Countries

Éva Pék, Imre Fertő, Stefania Giusti, Maher Salman

Abstract

The responsibility transfer of irrigation management from the state to farmers emerged as a mutually beneficial strategy to enhance food production while reducing pressure on central budgets. Yet the impacts of participatory approaches are not sufficiently investigated to understand the real-term gains of farmers. A systematic review combined with meta-analysis is undertaken to array what has been learned on the success of management transfer at the ground level. Based on the findings collated from 42 case studies in developing countries, the impact indicators of management transfer show an overall positive contribution to productivity, system efficiency, profitability, and cost of service, as direct proxies of farmers’ benefits. However, such impacts require the analysis of the research shortcomings. The existing literature fails to rebalance the geographical concentration of research interest, position management transfer in pro-poor contexts, explore the critical influence of water availability and craft a robust methodology for assessments. The paper revealed three key features of the assessments affecting the reported impacts. The assessments conducted long after the management transfer and the more recent assessments have a positive and significant relationship with the measured impacts. Conversely, the rigour of applied methodology has a negative and significant relationship with the impacts. The paper suggests research pathways to better understand the farmers-related impacts of management transfer, including the involvement of subsistence farms, application of pro-poor indicators, investigation of the implications of water scarcity, and the development of a framework for more rigorous assessments.

1970

Megjelent Schlotter Ildikó és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Proceedings of the 2024 Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA) kiadványban

Arborescences, Colorful Forests, and Popularity

Telikepalli Kavitha, Kazuhisa Makino, Ildikó Schlotter, and Yu Yokoi

Abstract

Our input is a directed, rooted graph G = (V ∪ {r}, E) where each vertex in V has a partial order preference over its incoming edges. The preferences of a vertex extend naturally to preferences over arborescences rooted at r. We seek a popular arborescence in G, i.e., one for which there is no “more popular” arborescence. Popular arborescences have applications in liquid democracy or collective decision making; however, they need not exist in every input instance. The popular arborescence problem is to decide if a given input instance admits a popular arborescence or not. We show a polynomial-time algorithm for this problem, whose computational complexity was not known previously.

Our algorithm is combinatorial, and can be regarded as a primal-dual algorithm. It searches for an arborescence along with its dual certificate, a chain of subsets of E, witnessing its popularity. In fact, our algorithm solves the more general popular common base problem in the intersection of two matroids, where one matroid is the partition matroid defined by any partition and the other is an arbitrary matroid M = (E, I) of rank |V|, with each v ∈ V having a partial order over elements in δ(ν). We extend our algorithm to the case with forced or forbidden edges.

We also study the related popular colorful forest (or more generally, the popular common independent set) problem where edges are partitioned into color classes, and the task is to find a colorful forest that is popular within the set of all colorful forests. For the case with weak rankings, we formulate the popular colorful forest polytope, and thus show that a minimum-cost popular colorful forest can be computed efficiently. By contrast, we prove that it is NP-hard to compute a minimum-cost popular arborescence, even when rankings are strict.

1970

Megjelent Cseh Ágnes és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports folyóiratban

Improving ranking quality and fairness in Swiss-system chess tournaments,

Pascal Sauer, Ágnes Cseh, Pascal Lenzner

Abstract

The International Chess Federation (FIDE) imposes a voluminous and complex set of player pairing criteria in Swiss-system chess tournaments and endorses computer programs that are able to calculate the prescribed pairings. The purpose of these formalities is to ensure that players are paired fairly during the tournament and that the final ranking corresponds to the players’ true strength order. We contest the official FIDE player pairing routine by presenting alternative pairing rules. These can be enforced by computing maximum weight matchings in a carefully designed graph. We demonstrate by extensive experiments that a tournament format using our mechanism (1) yields fairer pairings in the rounds of the tournament and (2) produces a final ranking that reflects the players’ true strengths better than the state-of-the-art FIDE pairing system.

Keywords: swiss system; tournaments; fairness; ranking; matching; chess

1970

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Megjelent Lengyel Balázs és szerzőtársai cikke az Economic Geography folyóiratban

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Megjelent Hajdu Tamás tanulmánya a Population and Environment folyóiratban

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Megjelent Bareith Tibor és szerzőtársai cikke a Risks folyóiratban

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Megjelent Gáspár Attila és szerzőtársai cikke a Plos One folyóiratban

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Megjelent Nemes Gusztáv cikke a Parola folyóiratban

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Megjelent Cseh Ágnes és szerzőtársa publikációja a Games and Economic Behavior folyóiratban

Abstract

Megjelent Hajdu Tamás, Krekó Judit és Tóth G. Csaba közös tanulmánya a Scientific Reports folyóiratban

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Megjelent Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter és szerzőtársuk tanulmánya a The Econometrics of Multi-dimensional Panels folyóiratban

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Megjelent Biró Péter és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Cenral European Journal of Operations Research folyóiratban

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Megjelent Fertő Imre és szerzőtársai a Water Recources Management folyóiratban

Abstract

Megjelent Schlotter Ildikó és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Proceedings of the 2024 Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA) kiadványban

Abstract

Megjelent Cseh Ágnes és szerzőtársai tanulmánya a Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports folyóiratban

Abstract

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