We investigate how a large-scale outflow of workers affect the reaming workforce. We use Hungarian administrative social security data on the opening of the Austrian labor market to Hungarian workers as a natural experiment. We find that the opening of the Austrian border increased wages by 1 percent and decreased employment by 5 percent in the close neighborhood of the Hungarian side of the border. We also show that the outflow of workers slightly decreased the quality of the remaining workforce in Hungary. Furthermore, we show that Austrian labor demand shocks have a positive impact on Hungarian wages as the increase of vacancies in Austria increases the wages on the Hungarian side of the border.

This paper investigates whether adolescents’ core self-evaluation (CSE), a broad personality construct capturing individuals’ appraisal of their self-worth and capabilities, predicts interpersonal trust decades later. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we construct CSE measures from self-esteem, locus of control, and emotional stability at age 16 and examine their relationship with trust reported at ages 34, 42, 46, and 50. We find that higher adolescent CSE is consistently and positively associated with greater trust in others later in life. Each component of CSE independently predicts trust, and the composite index shows robust associations even after controlling for demographic background, cognitive skills, and early mental health. The estimated associations are comparable in magnitude to those between trust and cognitive ability. They are stable over time and are not explained by selection to the sample, educational attainment, labour market success, or family formation. Importantly, we find that the relative importance of CSE components varies by adolescent mental health: locus of control is more predictive among individuals with better mental health, while emotional stability plays a stronger role among those with elevated depressive symptoms. These findings underscore the long-term social relevance of core self-evaluation and highlight its importance as a psychological antecedent of trust.

We test whether a single, neutral sentence reduces present-focused intertemporal choices. In a pre-registered classroom experiment (N=210) at Corvinus University of Budapest, first-year students made eight incentivized choices between a smaller immediate amount and larger amounts in two weeks. The treatment added a one-line, non-directive prompt—“Think carefully about all the possibilities that money would provide you”—intended to shift attention from when money arrives to what it enables. Descriptively and in OLS regressions, treated participants switch to the later–larger option at lower premia (effect size ≈ 0.1–0.2 SD), as hypothesized, but effects are not statistically significant. We interpret this as evidence that the prompt was too weak at the stakes and two-week horizon studied.

This paper analyzes the effects of temperatures on mortality and life expectancy using data on 40 million deaths across 73 geographic regions in 28 European countries between 2015 and 2024. The findings indicate that both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, with cold having a stronger overall effect. Heat-related mortality tends to be immediate, whereas cold-related effects are more delayed and prolonged. Climate emerges as a key moderator of these effects: cold-related mortality is higher in warmer regions, whereas heat-related mortality is higher in colder regions. The study also shows that recent shifts in the temperature distribution increased the number of deaths during the summer months but reduced mortality during spring, autumn, and winter, resulting in a net decrease of 869,000 deaths over the 2015–2024 period. This reduction corresponds to an average increase in life expectancy at birth of 0.20 years.

How does foreign direct investment impact wages and the task content of jobs? Using linked employer-employee data from Hungary and an event study approach we show that FDI increases the returns to abstract tasks, while it does not affect the returns to routine and face-to-face tasks. This finding appears to be driven by skill-biased changes in technology, as acquired firms innovate more with their foreign partners, import more machines and improve product quality. These suggest that FDI-induced technological change is an important driver of growing inequality in developing countries.

This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences the gender wage gap, using matched employer-employee data from Hungary between 2003 and 2017. I find that foreign-owned firms exhibit a 4 percentage points larger within-firm gender wage gap compared to domestic firms, even after accounting for worker- and firm-level selection. This gap persists even after foreign capital withdraws, suggesting a lasting structural imprint. Furthermore, the results highlight the role of cultural norms: subsidiaries of companies from countries with more favorable economic opportunities for women show significantly smaller gender disparities. Greater wage-setting flexibility is also associated with a wider gender wage gap, especially among new hires. Overall, the study demonstrates that foreign ownership not only affects wage structures through economic channels but also transmits cultural norms that shape gender inequality in the labor market.

More than one-third of people in the EU report having a chronic health condition (CHC), and their share in the workforce is expected to rise. Using unique linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary—combining detailed healthcare utilization with wage records—we identify workers with CHCs and analyze their labor market outcomes with a focus on the role of firms. Men and women with CHCs are 7 and 14 percentage points less likely to be employed, respectively. Among the employed, we find wage penalties of 5.8% for men and 13.9% for women. Differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for 12% of the penalty for men and 23% for women. Event-study models with worker fixed effects show persistent wage losses following CHC onset—4% for men and 1.5% for women—of which 0.2–0.5 percentage points are due to moving to lower-paying firms, with the rest likely reflecting missed promotions and raises. We then look at the role of firm ownership, foreign ownership being a strong proxy for technology, and find that 20% of the penalty is accounted for by this firm characteristic, 60-70% of which results from worker sorting and the remaining from CHC workers benefiting less from the higher wage premium of foreign-owned firms. These numbers imply that the fall in wages between the ages 40 and 60 would be 10-20% lower had there been no CHC penalty, about 20% of which is attributable to the presence of foreign-owned firms.

Tanulmányunkban a gyermekvállalás hatását vizsgáljuk a nők munkaerőpiaci kimeneteire, különös tekintettel a foglalkoztatottságukra és munkajövedelmekre. Elemzésünkhöz adminisztratív paneladatokat és oksági hatásokat becslő eseményelemzési módszereket alkalmazunk, az anyák mellett kontrollcsoportként gyermektelen nőket is bevonva az elemzésbe. Eredményeink alapján a szülést követően az anyák foglalkoztatási rátája és bére jelentősen visszaesik. A szülés után hat évvel a munkajövedelmük átlagosan 31%-kal, foglalkoztatási valószínűségük pedig 32%-kal alacsonyabb, mint azoké, akik folyamatosan jelen voltak a munkaerőpiacon. A foglalkoztatásba visszatérő nők körében kimutatható a heti ledolgozott munkaórák 7%-os csökkenése, míg az átlagos relatív órabér 12%-kal marad el a szülés előtti szinttől. Eredményeink rámutatnak, hogy a hosszú szülési szabadság jelentős munkaerőpiaci hátrányokat eredményez.

This paper examines the link between higher education and fertility, with particular attention to the role of intergenerational educational mobility in shaping this relationship. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate differences in completed fertility across three groups: first-in-family university graduates (FiF), graduates with at least one university-educated parent (non-FiF graduates), and individuals who did not attend university (non-graduates). Our findings show that although graduate women generally have fewer children than non-graduates, this gap is primarily driven by FiF graduates. FiF women have lower fertility than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility patterns. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an average number of children similar to non-FiF graduates. Similar patterns are observed for men, however, the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and exposure to maternal employment during childhood as potential drivers of the relationship between FiF status and fertility. In contrast, labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnership status, and health outcomes do not appear to contribute to the FiF fertility gap. These findings highlight key considerations for policies aimed at supporting both intergenerational mobility and fertility.

This study uses a large, individual-level, linked administrative panel dataset (Admin3) to examine the early labour market success of Hungarian higher education graduates who graduated between 2011 and 214, compared to their peers who graduated with incomplete degrees (only ‘absolutorium’ and no degree). We focus on the first 36 months of the early labour market careers of the two groups. The analyses provide further evidence for the few studies on the economic value of incomplete diplomas in a European context. The results confirm the role of the diploma signal early in the labour market career. Those without a degree take longer to find a full-time job and earn less than those with a degree at the beginning of their career, and in their first job, they are working at a somewhat lower skill level job than degree holders. There is no difference in the probability of occupational mobility between the two groups, with the likelihood of mobility within a given occupation being slightly lower for those with a degree. The results on wage and skill level changes due to occupational mobility are consistent with the U-shaped theory of occupational mobility.

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja egyszerű leíró statisztikai módszerekkel (alapvetően vonaldiagramok segítségével) nemzetközi szervezetek (OECD, Világbank) nyilvános adatbázisai alapján, hogy a magyar állam az emberi tőke előállítására (oktatás) és fenntartására (egészségügy) fordított kiadásai más európai országokéhoz képest mennyire adekvátak, illetve alacsonyak, és hogyan változnak az utóbbi 1-2 évtizedben. A kérdésre az oktatás esetében számos mutató, így pl. a GDP-hez, illetve az államháztartási kiadásokhoz képesti közkiadási arányok segítségével keressük a választ, de megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy vásárlóerőparitáson amerikai dollárra átszámítva az egy tanulóra fordított kiadások tekintetében mi a helyzet. Az egészségügyi kiadások esetében a kiadások GDP-n belüli aránya mellett összehasonlítjuk az egy főre jutó kiadások abszolút nagyságát is (változatlan áron, vásárlóerőparitáson euróban).  Mind az oktatási, mind az egészségügy esetében elmondható, hogy a fejlett európai országokhoz képest Magyarország a GDP arányában és abszolút mértékben is keveset költ az emberi tőkére, ami hosszabb távon feltehetően kedvezőtlenül érinti az ország versenyképességét. Ugyanakkor egyes dél-európai országokban a magyarhoz hasonlóan alacsony kiadási arányok is előfordulnak. A többi európai rendszerváltó országhoz képest a középmezőnybe tartozunk, de hosszabb távon nézve relatív helyzetünk ebben a mezőnyben fokozatosan romlik.

This study investigates the patterns and determinants of occupation mobility among young workers with medium-level qualifications in Hungary during their first 4-8 years in the labor market. Utilizing linked employer-employee panel data augmented with standardized test scores from grade 10, we examine the relationship between occupation mobility, wages, and skills. Our findings indicate that wages are generally negatively associated with occupation mobility, both within broad occupation categories and specific occupations. However, occupation mobility shows little correlation with test scores. High-wage workers are less likely to change occupations, but when they do, they tend to move to higher positions within the occupational hierarchy, similar to high-skill workers. These results suggest that while wages and occupation mobility are interconnected, the role of direct skill measures in explaining mobility patterns is limited. The study contributes to the understanding of early career dynamics and the factors influencing occupational transitions.