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Műhelytanulmányok

2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

Szerkesztő: Hajdu Tamás

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

FDI, technological progress and inequality

RITA PETŐ – BALÁZS REIZER

2025/10

How does foreign direct investment impact wages and the task content of jobs? Using linked employer-employee data from Hungary and an event study approach we show that FDI increases the returns to abstract tasks, while it does not affect the returns to routine and face-to-face tasks. This finding appears to be driven by skill-biased changes in technology, as acquired firms innovate more with their foreign partners, import more machines and improve product quality. These suggest that FDI-induced technological change is an important driver of growing inequality in developing countries.

2025

Foreign-owned firms and the gender wage gap: Does cultural transmission matter?

RITA PETŐ

2025/9

This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences the gender wage gap, using matched employer-employee data from Hungary between 2003 and 2017. I find that foreign-owned firms exhibit a 4 percentage points larger within-firm gender wage gap compared to domestic firms, even after accounting for worker- and firm-level selection. This gap persists even after foreign capital withdraws, suggesting a lasting structural imprint. Furthermore, the results highlight the role of cultural norms: subsidiaries of companies from countries with more favorable economic opportunities for women show significantly smaller gender disparities. Greater wage-setting flexibility is also associated with a wider gender wage gap, especially among new hires. Overall, the study demonstrates that foreign ownership not only affects wage structures through economic channels but also transmits cultural norms that shape gender inequality in the labor market.

2025

The role of firms in the wage penalty for chronic health conditions

MÁRTA BISZTRAY – BALÁZS MURAKÖZY – RITA PETŐ

2025/8

More than one-third of people in the EU report having a chronic health condition (CHC), and their share in the workforce is expected to rise. Using unique linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary—combining detailed healthcare utilization with wage records—we identify workers with CHCs and analyze their labor market outcomes with a focus on the role of firms. Men and women with CHCs are 7 and 14 percentage points less likely to be employed, respectively. Among the employed, we find wage penalties of 5.8% for men and 13.9% for women. Differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for 12% of the penalty for men and 23% for women. Event-study models with worker fixed effects show persistent wage losses following CHC onset—4% for men and 1.5% for women—of which 0.2–0.5 percentage points are due to moving to lower-paying firms, with the rest likely reflecting missed promotions and raises. We then look at the role of firm ownership, foreign ownership being a strong proxy for technology, and find that 20% of the penalty is accounted for by this firm characteristic, 60-70% of which results from worker sorting and the remaining from CHC workers benefiting less from the higher wage premium of foreign-owned firms. These numbers imply that the fall in wages between the ages 40 and 60 would be 10-20% lower had there been no CHC penalty, about 20% of which is attributable to the presence of foreign-owned firms.

2025

Anyasági keresetkülönbözet Magyarországon

BOZA ISTVÁN – SZABÓ-MORVAI ÁGNES

2025/7

Tanulmányunkban a gyermekvállalás hatását vizsgáljuk a nők munkaerőpiaci kimeneteire, különös tekintettel a foglalkoztatottságukra és munkajövedelmekre. Elemzésünkhöz adminisztratív paneladatokat és oksági hatásokat becslő eseményelemzési módszereket alkalmazunk, az anyák mellett kontrollcsoportként gyermektelen nőket is bevonva az elemzésbe. Eredményeink alapján a szülést követően az anyák foglalkoztatási rátája és bére jelentősen visszaesik. A szülés után hat évvel a munkajövedelmük átlagosan 31%-kal, foglalkoztatási valószínűségük pedig 32%-kal alacsonyabb, mint azoké, akik folyamatosan jelen voltak a munkaerőpiacon. A foglalkoztatásba visszatérő nők körében kimutatható a heti ledolgozott munkaórák 7%-os csökkenése, míg az átlagos relatív órabér 12%-kal marad el a szülés előtti szinttől. Eredményeink rámutatnak, hogy a hosszú szülési szabadság jelentős munkaerőpiaci hátrányokat eredményez.

2025

Beyond the Degree: Fertility Outcomes of ‘First in Family’ Graduates

ANNA ADAMECZ – ANNA LOVÁSZ – SUNČICA VUJIĆ

2025/6

This paper examines the link between higher education and fertility, with particular attention to the role of intergenerational educational mobility in shaping this relationship. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate differences in completed fertility across three groups: first-in-family university graduates (FiF), graduates with at least one university-educated parent (non-FiF graduates), and individuals who did not attend university (non-graduates). Our findings show that although graduate women generally have fewer children than non-graduates, this gap is primarily driven by FiF graduates. FiF women have lower fertility than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility patterns. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an average number of children similar to non-FiF graduates. Similar patterns are observed for men, however, the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and exposure to maternal employment during childhood as potential drivers of the relationship between FiF status and fertility. In contrast, labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnership status, and health outcomes do not appear to contribute to the FiF fertility gap. These findings highlight key considerations for policies aimed at supporting both intergenerational mobility and fertility.

2025

Labour market success of non-completer higher education students and higher education degree-holders

MÁRTON CSILLAG – JÚLIA VARGA

2025/5

This study uses a large, individual-level, linked administrative panel dataset (Admin3) to examine the early labour market success of Hungarian higher education graduates who graduated between 2011 and 214, compared to their peers who graduated with incomplete degrees (only ‘absolutorium’ and no degree). We focus on the first 36 months of the early labour market careers of the two groups. The analyses provide further evidence for the few studies on the economic value of incomplete diplomas in a European context. The results confirm the role of the diploma signal early in the labour market career. Those without a degree take longer to find a full-time job and earn less than those with a degree at the beginning of their career, and in their first job, they are working at a somewhat lower skill level job than degree holders. There is no difference in the probability of occupational mobility between the two groups, with the likelihood of mobility within a given occupation being slightly lower for those with a degree. The results on wage and skill level changes due to occupational mobility are consistent with the U-shaped theory of occupational mobility.

2025

Állami oktatási és egészségügyi ráfordítások Magyarországon nemzetközi összehasonlításban

SEMJÉN ANDRÁS

2025/4

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja egyszerű leíró statisztikai módszerekkel (alapvetően vonaldiagramok segítségével) nemzetközi szervezetek (OECD, Világbank) nyilvános adatbázisai alapján, hogy a magyar állam az emberi tőke előállítására (oktatás) és fenntartására (egészségügy) fordított kiadásai más európai országokéhoz képest mennyire adekvátak, illetve alacsonyak, és hogyan változnak az utóbbi 1-2 évtizedben. A kérdésre az oktatás esetében számos mutató, így pl. a GDP-hez, illetve az államháztartási kiadásokhoz képesti közkiadási arányok segítségével keressük a választ, de megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy vásárlóerőparitáson amerikai dollárra átszámítva az egy tanulóra fordított kiadások tekintetében mi a helyzet. Az egészségügyi kiadások esetében a kiadások GDP-n belüli aránya mellett összehasonlítjuk az egy főre jutó kiadások abszolút nagyságát is (változatlan áron, vásárlóerőparitáson euróban).  Mind az oktatási, mind az egészségügy esetében elmondható, hogy a fejlett európai országokhoz képest Magyarország a GDP arányában és abszolút mértékben is keveset költ az emberi tőkére, ami hosszabb távon feltehetően kedvezőtlenül érinti az ország versenyképességét. Ugyanakkor egyes dél-európai országokban a magyarhoz hasonlóan alacsony kiadási arányok is előfordulnak. A többi európai rendszerváltó országhoz képest a középmezőnybe tartozunk, de hosszabb távon nézve relatív helyzetünk ebben a mezőnyben fokozatosan romlik.

2025

The Role of Skills and Wages in Early Career Occupation Mobility: Evidence from Hungary

MÁRTON CSILLAG – ZOLTÁN HERMANN

2025/3

This study investigates the patterns and determinants of occupation mobility among young workers with medium-level qualifications in Hungary during their first 4-8 years in the labor market. Utilizing linked employer-employee panel data augmented with standardized test scores from grade 10, we examine the relationship between occupation mobility, wages, and skills. Our findings indicate that wages are generally negatively associated with occupation mobility, both within broad occupation categories and specific occupations. However, occupation mobility shows little correlation with test scores. High-wage workers are less likely to change occupations, but when they do, they tend to move to higher positions within the occupational hierarchy, similar to high-skill workers. These results suggest that while wages and occupation mobility are interconnected, the role of direct skill measures in explaining mobility patterns is limited. The study contributes to the understanding of early career dynamics and the factors influencing occupational transitions.

2025

The Rise of Linked Employer-Employee Panel Data: Where Are We Now?

ISTVÁN BOZA – RITA PETŐ

2025/2

In recent decades, one of the most significant advancements in empirical labor economics was the emergence of longitudinal linked employer-employee datasets. This paper aims to provide a snapshot of this data revolution. With LEE panels now available in over 30 countries, we survey their general availability and key characteristics. Beyond common features, we highlight the more complex aspects of these datasets, which enable rigorous, large-scale research across diverse subfields. Finally, we explore emerging directions in LEE-based research, with the goal of engaging researchers, policymakers, and data providers.

2025

Revisiting the Dunning-Kruger effect: composite measures and heterogeneity by gender

ANNA ADAMECZ – RADINA ILIEVA – NIKKI SHURE

2025/1

The Dunning-Kruger effect (DKE) states that people with lower levels of the ability tend to self-assess their ability less accurately than people with relatively higher levels of the ability. Thus, the correlation between one’s objective cognitive abilities and self-assessed abilities is higher at higher levels of objective cognitive abilities. There has been much debate as to whether this effect actually exists or is a statistical artefact. This paper replicates and extends Gignac and Zajenkowski (2020) and Dunkel, Nedelec, and van der Linden (2023) to test whether the DKE exists using several measures of ability and nationally representative data from a British birth cohort study. To do this, we construct a measure of objective cognitive abilities using 18 tests conducted at ages 5, 10, and 16, and a measure of subjective self-assessed abilities using estimates of school performance and being clever at ages 10 and 16. We replicate their models and show that the DKE exists in our secondary data. Importantly, we are the first to look at whether this relationship is heterogeneous by gender and find that while the self-assessment bias is gender specific, the DKE is not. The DKE comes from men relatively overestimating and women relatively underestimating their abilities.

2025

Shortcomings of social innovation definitions and a proposed new definition

ATTILA HAVAS

2024/30

Social innovation (SI) research still struggles with problems of definition (Edwards-Schachter and Wallace 2017) and lacks a shared analytical framework and measurement methods. This lack of coherence is reflected in two bold, diametrically opposing views on SI research. „SI is an eclectic area, since differences still prevail also within the same research communities, revealing some intra-group fragmentation.” (van der Have and Rubalcaba 2016: 1932) In contrast, other authors propose that SI can – and should – be the main building block of a new, comprehensive innovation paradigm. (Howaldt 2019) The sheer number of SI definitions tends to confirm the former view: 252 definitions are identified in Edwards-Schachter and Wallace (2017). This paper argues that despite this plethora of SI definitions there is a need for a new SI definition for two major reasons. First, most of the extant definitions suffer from at least one of the following conceptual flaws: (i) the purpose and the nature of innovation are conflated; (ii) diffusion of SI is ‘required’; (iii) positive impacts of SI is stipulated; and (iv) different levels of change (unit of analysis) are specified in the definitions. Second, SI definitions seek to capture the essential features of SI. However, there are as many types of ‘essence’ as angles to analyse SI purposes, processes, and impacts. The abundance of SI definitions forcefully illustrates that it is impossible to construct a generic and essentialist SI definition. Therefore, the paper proposes a generic and nominal (non-essentialist) SI definition and discusses its analytical, policy, and practical relevance.

2025

Comparative analysis of the CE4 countries’ economic performance

ATTILA HAVAS

2024/29

This report compares the economic performance of four Central European countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (henceforth: CE4 countries). Many authors emphasise the similarities between the V4 countries – sometimes even the former planned economies of CEE –, i.e., the former ‘bloc approach’ is still dominant. However, key economic indicators – GDP, productivity, unemployment, inflation, budget deficit, trade balance, and the structure of export – paint a different picture. From a Hungarian perspective, the better performance of the other three countries – also reflected in their ranking in international scoreboards – is particularly noteworthy.

2025