The impact of heat and cold on excess mortality and life expectancy in Europe, 2015–2024

This paper analyzes the effects of temperatures on mortality and life expectancy using data on 40 million deaths across 73 geographic regions in 28 European countries between 2015 and 2024. The findings indicate that both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, with cold having a stronger overall effect. Heat-related mortality tends to be immediate, whereas cold-related effects are more delayed and prolonged. Climate emerges as a key moderator of these effects: cold-related mortality is higher in warmer regions, whereas heat-related mortality is higher in colder regions. The study also shows that recent shifts in the temperature distribution increased the number of deaths during the summer months but reduced mortality during spring, autumn, and winter, resulting in a net decrease of 869,000 deaths over the 2015–2024 period. This reduction corresponds to an average increase in life expectancy at birth of 0.20 years.