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Műhelytanulmányok

2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

Szerkesztő: Hajdu Tamás

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Payroll Taxes

ANIKÓ BÍRÓ – RÉKA BRANYICZKI – ATTILA LINDNER – LILI MÁRK – DÁNIEL PRINZ

2022/23

We study the impact of a large payroll tax cut for older workers in Hungary. Motivated by the predictions of a standard equilibrium job search model, we examine the heterogeneous impact of the policy. Employment increases most at low-productivity firms offering low-wage jobs, which tend to hire from unemployment, while the effects are more muted for high-productivity firms offering high-wage jobs. At the same time, wages only increase at high-productivity firms. These results point to important heterogeneity in the incidence of payroll tax cuts across firms and highlight that payroll taxes have a significant impact on the composition of jobs in the labor market.

2022

A job trial subsidy for youth: cheap labour or a screening device?

JUDIT KREKÓ – BALÁZS MUNKÁCSY – MÁRTON CSILLAG – ÁGOTA SCHARLE

2022/22

This paper evaluates a 90-day hiring subsidy designed for young jobseekers aged below 25, introduced in Hungary in 2015 as part of the Youth Guarantee programme. The subsidy covers the total wage cost with no obligation to retain the new hire when the subsidy expires. The analysis is based on linked administrative data taken from the unemployment register, cognitive skills measured at age 15, health and social security records. The causal impact of the subsidy on subsequent employment is identified in comparison to participants of a large-scale public works programme, using propensity score matching with exceptionally rich controls. The estimates indicate significant positive effects: participants spent 14-20 days more in employment within six months after the programme ended on the whole sample. The impact is weaker on the 12-month horizon. We find that the subsidy works well as a screening device: the programme has the highest impact on those workers who have very low levels of schooling (eight years of primary school or less), but demonstrated high skill levels on standardised competence tests. One potential explanation is that employers tend to retain those with better cognitive skills, irrespective of their formal qualifications. We also find some indication that the subsidy is (mis)used by some employers to hire short term, seasonal workers.

2022

Vállalkozóvá váló munkanélküliek jellemzői

BAKÓ TAMÁS – KÁLMÁN JUDIT–KÁROLYI RÓBERT

2022/21

Jelen tanulmányban azt vizsgáltuk, hogy a 2014-2015 között legalább egy napig regisztrált munkanélküliek milyen tulajdonságok mentén vesznek részt a vállalkozóvá válást elősegítő programokban Magyarországon. Az adatok azt mutatják, hogy némileg hátrányosabb helyzetűek azok a munkanélküliek, akik támogatást vettek igénybe a vállalkozásuk beindításához – magasabb a pályakezdők, nők, alacsonyabb a felsőfokú végzettségűek aránya, kisebb az átlagos járadék átlaga. Eredményeink szerint nagyon erős az iskolai végzettség, valamint az értelmiségi foglalkozás, korábbi vezetői pozíció összefüggése a vállalkozóvá válás és a támogató programban való részvétel esélyeivel is. Tehát támogató programmal és támogató program nélküli is a felsőfokú végzettséggel rendelkezők, szaktudással bírók esélyei a legnagyobbak a vállalkozóvá válásra, ugyanakkor ők azok is, akik ehhez nagyobb eséllyel élnek támogatással. Egyértelműen látszik az is, hogy mivel az EU támogatások miatt a konvergencia régiókban több ilyen képzéssel, mentorálással és alaptőke-biztosítással kombinált komplex program futott, mindenütt nagyobb volt az esélye a támogatásba kerülésnek, mint Közép-Magyarországon, ám a program térbeli eloszlása meglehetősen egyenlőtlen.

2022

The impact of childcare on maternal employment

BENCE SZABÓ – JUDIT BEREI – MÁRTON CSILLAG – HANNA ERŐS – JUDIT KREKÓ –ÁGOTA SCHARLE

2022/20

This paper examines the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment in Hungary based on 2016 Microcensus data. We exploit the exogenous variation in access to childcare due to informal admission practices based on the date of birth, to identify the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment and the children’s enrolment. We find that on average, expanding the coverage of nurseries to the same level as kindergartens would lead to around 7.3 percentage points higher maternal employment, an around 25% higher employment rate compared to the baseline of mothers with a child aged 2-2.5 years. At the same time, the decomposition of the link between childcare availability and employment shows that enrolment would increase by 17.7 percentage points due to the higher coverage, close to 40% compared to the baseline. Enrolment in childcare would increase maternal employment probability by around 41 percentage points, around two-thirds of the employment rate of mothers. We also examine the heterogeneities of the effect along demographic characteristics using causal forests, and the economic cycle by expanding the analysis to the 2011 Census. We find that in 2016 the childcare availability effect is higher for mothers with 3 children, living in villages, or municipalities without nurseries. The employment effect is lower in the 2011 Census, while the effect on enrolment in formal childcare remains similar, suggesting the importance of weaker labour demand in 2011.

2022

The gender gap in top jobs – the role of overconfidence

ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI – NIKKI SHURE

2022/19

There is a large gender gap in the probability of being in a “top job” in mid-career. Top jobs bring higher earnings, and also have more job security and better career trajectories. Recent literature has raised the possibility that some of this gap may be attributable to women not “leaning in” while men are more overconfident in their abilities. We use longitudinal data from childhood into mid-career and construct a measure of overconfidence using multiple measures of objective cognitive ability and subjective estimated ability. Our measure confirms previous findings that men are more overconfident than women. We then use linear regression and decomposition techniques to account for the gender gap in top jobs including our measure of overconfidence. Our results show that men being more overconfident explains 5-11 percent of the gender gap in top job employment. This indicates that while overconfidence matters for gender inequality in the labor market and has implications for how firms recruit and promote workers, other individual, structural, and societal factors play a larger role.

2022