Project number: FK145991
Population change in a given period depends on four components. These are the number of birth per woman (fertility), the length of life span (mortality), the balance of migration (net migration) and the share of the different age groups in the population (age structure). These factors also shape population ageing, often measured by the change in median age. The research aim is to identify the role of these components in population change and population ageing from 1990 to 2020 in the Central and Eastern Europe countries that joined the European Union after 2000. This region experienced the most significant population decline in the last decades globally, so it is crucial to explore the driving forces behind this process and reveal the common features as well as the factors that cause the differences between the countries of CEE.
In the second part of my research, I present how these factors define the population prospects of the surveyed countries. I make a population projection for 2070 by which I show the impact of the change in a specific component on the population outlook. I introduce the limits of the different population scenarios defined by the age structure of the given population. In addition, I present population projections for a longer term to indicate the population size to which the countries are converging. As a part of my research, I can identify the fertility, mortality and net migration level that could have stabilised the given population in the last decades and the future. On the other hand, my results provide useful information to policymakers on issues related to demography and support decision-making on demographic targets.
