Beyond the degree : fertility outcomes of ‘first in family’ graduates
Anna Adamecz - Anna Lovász - Sunčica Vujić
2025
International Journal Articles
Immigrant-native pay gap driven by lack of access to high-paying jobs
Are Skeie Hermansen - Andrew Penner - István Boza [et al.]
Are Skeie Hermansen – Andrew Penner – István Boza [et al.]
Nature (2025)
Abstract
Immigrants to high-income countries often face considerable and persistent difficulties in the labour market, whereas their native-born children typically experience economic progress. However, little is known about the extent to which these immigrant–native earnings differences stem from unequal pay when doing the same work for the same employer versus labour market processes that sort immigrants into lower-paid jobs. Here, using data from nine European and North American countries, we show that the segregation of workers with immigrant backgrounds into lower-paying jobs accounts for about three-quarters of overall immigrant–native earnings differences. Although within-job pay inequality remains notable for immigrants in several countries, our results demonstrate that unequal access to higher-paying jobs is the primary driver of the immigrant–native pay gap across a range of institutionally and demographically diverse contexts. These findings highlight the importance of policies aimed at reducing between-job segregation, such as language training, job training, job search assistance programmes, improving access to domestic education, recognizing foreign qualifications, and settlement programmes aimed at enhancing access to job-relevant information and networks. Policies that target employer bias in hiring and promotion decisions are also likely to be effective, whereas measures aimed at ensuring equal pay for equal work may have more limited scope for further progress in closing the immigrant–native pay gap.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09259-6
2025
Navigating AI-Driven Financial Forecasting: A Systematic Review of Current Status and Critical Research Gaps
László Vancsura - Tibor Tatay - Tibor Bareith
László Vancsura – Tibor Tatay – Tibor Bareith
Forecasting, Vol. 7. No. 3. 49 p. (2025)
Abstract
This systematic literature review explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in financial market forecasting, with a focus on four asset classes: equities, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange markets. Guided by the PRISMA methodology, the study identifies the most widely used predictive models, particularly LSTM, GRU, XGBoost, and hybrid deep learning architectures, as well as key evaluation metrics, such as RMSE and MAPE. The findings confirm that AI-based approaches, especially neural networks, outperform traditional statistical methods in capturing non-linear and high-dimensional dynamics. However, the analysis also reveals several critical research gaps. Most notably, current models are rarely embedded into real or simulated trading strategies, limiting their practical applicability. Furthermore, the sensitivity of widely used metrics like MAPE to volatility remains underexplored, particularly in highly unstable environments such as crypto markets. Temporal robustness is also a concern, as many studies fail to validate their models across different market regimes. While data covering one to ten years is most common, few studies assess performance stability over time. By highlighting these limitations, this review not only synthesizes the current state of the art but also outlines essential directions for future research. Specifically, it calls for greater emphasis on model interpretability, strategy-level evaluation, and volatility-aware validation frameworks, thereby contributing to the advancement of AI’s real-world utility in financial forecasting.
Keywords:
systematic literature review; machine learning; equities; cryptocurrencies; commodities; foreign exchange markets; research gaps
https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7030036
2025
Do diversity and context collapse kill an online social network?
Júlia Koltai - László Lőrincz - Johannes Wachs - Károly Takács
Júlia Koltai – László Lőrincz – Johannes Wachs – Károly Takács
Applied Network Science, Vol. 10. Art. No. 26. 20 p. (2025)
Abstract
Our social lives consist of various circles, such as family, friends, and colleagues. Differences in norms and expectations among these circles can create tension in large online social networks (OSNs) due to blurred boundaries. It is unclear whether this phenomenon, known as context collapse, outweighs the convenience of having diverse communities in one place for OSN users. To explore this trade-off, we examined if ego network characteristics indicating context collapse could explain users’ decisions to leave iWiW, a defunct Hungarian OSN with over 3.5 million active users at its peak. We assessed context collapse based on two conditions: the absence of overlapping communities measured by network modularity and social differences between those communities. We find that users with fragmented social networks indeed leave the platform earlier if these distinct communities differ significantly in their age profiles and urban-rural composition. However, the highest probability of leaving was among those with non-fragmented networks and similar communities. These seemingly contradicting results are caused by the process that network fragmentation itself decreases the probability of leaving. Thus, our results demonstrate simultaneously how brokerage can be valuable and context collapse stressful for users of OSNs.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-025-00719-6
2025
Artificial Intelligence for Agricultural Extension: Supporting Transformative Learning Among Smallholder Farmers
Chris High - Namita Singh - Gusztáv Nemes
Chris High – Namita Singh – Gusztáv Nemes
Journal of Development Policy and Practice, Online First
First published online July 4, 2025
Abstract
Small and marginal farmers face intersecting challenges related to food security, environmental risk and structural disadvantage. Agricultural extension has historically played a central role in supporting these farmers, with evolving approaches that increasingly emphasise participatory learning, farmer agency and ethical knowledge exchange. As artificial intelligence (AI) technologies begin to enter the agricultural advisory landscape, their potential to support smallholder learning remains both promising and contested. This article explores the intersection of AI and agricultural extension by proposing a typology of learning based on two key dimensions: the locus of knowledge production and the orientation of agricultural knowledge and innovation systems (AKIS). Using this framework, we assess the extent to which current AI applications in agriculture align with ethical and participatory extension goals. Our analysis is grounded in a detailed case study of Farmer.Chat, a generative AI-powered advisory tool developed by Digital Green and Microsoft Research, and deployed in four countries. Drawing on mixed-methods data, we examine how AI can support or limit different types of learning, trust-building and knowledge co-creation. We find that while Farmer.Chat enhances access and personalisation, it still leans towards individualised, one-way communication. Its full potential depends on embedding it within trusted social infrastructures, enabling feedback loops and aligning with double-loop learning and participatory extension ethics. We conclude with a research agenda to guide the development of AI tools that support more inclusive, adaptive and democratic agricultural knowledge systems.
https://doi.org/10.1177/24551333251345224
2025
Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts
Hannah Schuster - Axel Polleres - Amin Anjomshoaa - Johannes Wachs
Hannah Schuster – Axel Polleres – Amin Anjomshoaa – Johannes Wachs
Scientific Reports, Vol. 15. Art. No. 22812. 12 p. (2025)
Abstract
The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in the coming decades. Here, we measure the relationship between weekly all-cause mortality and heat days in Austrian districts using a panel data set covering . An additional day reaching is associated with a increase in mortality per 1, 000 inhabitants during summer. This association is increased by approximately in districts with a two standard deviation above average share of the population over 65. Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projections of heat days and demographics in 2050, we observe that districts will have elderly populations and heat days standard deviations above the current mean in just 25 years. This predicts a drastic increase in heat-related mortality. At the same time, district green scores, measured using meter resolution satellite images of residential areas, significantly moderate the relationship between heat and mortality. Thus, although local policies likely cannot reverse warming or demographic trends, they can take measures to mediate the health consequences of these growing risks, which are highly heterogeneous across regions, even in Austria.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-05676-9
2025
Supply-demand price decoupling in European-type day-ahead electricity markets
Anita Varga - Botond Feczkó - Marianna E.-Nagy - Dávid Csercsik
Anita Varga – Botond Feczkó – Marianna E.-Nagy – Dávid Csercsik
International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems,
Vol. 169. Paper No. 110788 (2025)
Abstract
In this paper, we consider the possibility of supply–demand price decoupling in European-type day-ahead electricity markets, considering also the possibility of the supply price exceeding the demand price for some periods. Using a simple market model and an illustrative example, we show that this approach can resolve the paradoxical rejection of block orders and thus potentially increase the total social welfare and surplus of bidders. However, it has additional implications, which must be considered in a potential application. The first is the non-uniqueness of the decoupled market-clearing prices, while the second is that price decoupling affects the relation between the sum of individual bid surpluses and the total social welfare, as these values may no longer be equal, and the approach may imply a nonzero income for the auctioneer. To tackle the issue of non-uniqueness of market-clearing prices, we propose an iterative three-step clearing method. In the second part of the paper, we consider realistic-sized examples, analyze how the proposed approach affects the market outcome. We show that the proposed method reduces the number of paradoxically rejected block bids by 34%–42% and slightly increases the total welfare. In addition, we define a measure (opportunity cost of paradox rejection) to characterize the level of paradox rejection in a clearing solution. We show that the proposed price decoupling-based clearing method may significantly (34%–44%) decrease the value of this measure compared to the conventional clearing approach. We also study the computational demand of the proposed method.
Keywords
OR in energy, Day-ahead electricity markets, Non-convexities, Market design, Paradox rejection, Clearing approach, Computational demand
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2025.110788
2025
Round-Tripping Foreign Direct Investments: What are the Main Factors?
Magdolna Sass - Imre Fertő
Magdolna Sass – Imre Fertő
Global Policy, Early View
First published: 28 May 2025
Abstract
FDI round-tripping has become an increasingly important issue in the world economy, with significant implications for tax revenues, regulatory frameworks, and economic policy. Little is known about its importance and characteristics from a country of origin perspective, and thus economic policies are ill-prepared to address it. This study analyzes the determinants of round-tripping in OECD countries and highlights the urgency of addressing it. Key findings reveal that factors such as economic development, tax burdens, institutional quality, and globalization levels significantly influence round-tripping. The results emphasize the need for coordinated international policy efforts to curb the distortions caused by round-tripping and promote transparent investment flows. Addressing round-tripping FDI is essential for ensuring equitable taxation and strengthening the integrity of global financial systems.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70014
2025
Value chains for sustainable mountain development: a qualitative understanding of 23 European cases
Kirsty Blackstock - Rachel Creaney - Mar del Mar Delgado-Serrano - Sharon Flanigan - Corrado Ievoli - Michele Moretti - Gusztáv Nemes et al.
Kirsty Blackstock – Rachel Creaney – Mar del Mar Delgado-Serrano – Sharon Flanigan – Corrado Ievoli – Michele Moretti – Gusztáv Nemes et al.
Journal of Rural Studies, Vol. 118. Paper No. 103640 (2025)
Abstract
This paper presents findings using a novel, qualitative and interpretative approach to value chain assessment. The approach was used to further understand sustainable mountain development. The findings result from 23 diverse cases across 16 European countries, including value chains that focus on animal production for meat and dairy products, arable, horticultural and alcohol production as well as tourism and public goods. The paper focuses on three types of value (economic, socio-cultural and environmental) that are developed along the four stages of each value chain (Production, Processing, Distribution/Marketing and Consumption). It addresses how and why value chain actors perceived changes to these three types of values, including how the value chain is tele-coupled with other sending or receiving systems; and how the focal value chains intertwine with other mountain value chains. In general, the value chains actors’ perceived that positive values were added, supporting sustainable mountain development in our cases, but the findings were most positive for economic issues and least positive for environmental issues. Findings support neo-endogenous rural development arguments. Local cooperation and certification of sustainable practices seem to support valorisation and retain these values in the mountains. We contend that using a value chain lens for mountain development has helped improve the breadth of analysis and highlights the need to consider non-mountain actors and processes within sustainable development processes.
Keywords
Value chains, Sustainable development, Multi-actor, Perceptions, Neo-endogenous, Transdisciplinary approach, Mountains
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103640
2025
Mobilizing Rural Support: Targeted Government Spending and Democratic Backsliding in Hungary
Krisztina Szabó - Ádám Reiff
Krisztina Szabó – Ádám Reiff
Politics and Governance, Vol. 13. Art. No. 9542 (2025)
Abstract
The spread of democratic backsliding has drawn scholarly attention to the strategies and approaches characteristic of these regimes. However, our understanding of targeted government spending programs designed to favor specific segments of society to build and reinforce a loyal support base remains largely limited. We explore a major targeted government spending initiative directed at rural settlements in Hungary, one of the most notable cases of democratic backsliding today. In particular, we analyze the electoral and mobilization effects of targeted policies and the government’s resource allocation strategy, focusing on two initiatives: the Rural Family Housing Allowance Program (Rural CSOK), which provides housing subsidies to individuals in eligible settlements, and the Hungarian Village Program, which funds local governments in eligible settlements to invest in essential infrastructure, public services, and community spaces. Using highly detailed observational data and leveraging the quasi-random assignment of program eligibility, we show that the government directs Hungarian Village Program funds to reward electorally strong core settlements. We also find that both eligibility and subsidy amounts increase government vote share by mobilizing core and inactive voters while discouraging opposition participation.
Keywords
democratic backsliding; electoral mobilization; Hungary; targeted spending; voting behavior
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.9542
2025
Reducing Food Loss: Post-harvest Strategies at the Small Scale
Zsófia Benedek - Katalin Kujáni - Judith Molnár
Zsófia Benedek – Katalin Kujáni – Judith Molnár
Eurochoices, Early View, First published: 19 May 2025
Summary
This article examines post-harvest technologies and practices tailored to small-scale operations, highlighting their potential to reduce food loss. A comprehensive approach to conceptualising post-harvest technologies is proposed across various stages of the value chain. By categorising solutions into three clusters – traditional practices, technology-driven approaches, and collaborative, community-centred strategies – the article provides practical examples. The specific characteristics of short food supply chains are considered throughout, recognising both the opportunities and challenges these systems present for small-scale producers. While many post-harvest technologies are designed for larger market actors, smaller producers often rely on alternative strategies, drawing on direct relationships with consumers to achieve greater flexibility and sustainability. Balancing cost-efficiency with sustainability requires prioritising traditional and community-driven practices, despite the time and collaboration these approaches may demand to succeed. However, these efforts can yield additional benefits, fostering knowledge-sharing, strengthening community ties, and ultimately contributing to more resilient and efficient food systems. Policy recommendations are also presented including tailored training programmes, regulatory adaptations, and the promotion of digital platforms to improve market access and reduce administrative burdens. Overall, the article demonstrates how targeted post-harvest strategies can help small-scale producers reduce food loss, contributing to broader sustainability, economic resilience, and food security goals across Europe.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12466
2025
Corruption and extremism
Attila Gáspár - Tommaso Giommoni - Massimo Morelli - Antonio Nicolò
Attila Gáspár – Tommaso Giommoni – Massimo Morelli – Antonio Nicolò
Journal of Development Economics, In Press, Journal Pre-proof, 103526
Available online 15 May 2025
Abstract
This paper shows that corruption generates extremism, but mainly on the opposition side. While corruption hurts all citizens, only voters on the minority side may desire to switch to a more extreme representative when they perceive a more corrupt political system. In our model, campaigning on a corruption scandal against the incumbent gives a higher winning probability for the opposition politician but simultaneously reduces expected future rents from office. As extremist politicians normally are less likely to win against a moderate opponent, they have a stronger incentive to take a stand against corruption. Given that the side of the political minority has a lower chance of having their representative elected to office, they face a smaller opportunity cost of voting for extremists. Our main result is that minorities are more likely to react to corruption with more extremism. We provide causal evidence for this novel asymmetric prediction from Indonesia and Brazil.
Keywords:
Corruption, Extremism, Elections
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103526
2025
