We evaluate the effect of a drastic cut in potential benefit duration, reducing the maximum length of UI benefits from 9 to 3 months in Hungary at the end of 2011. We rely on rich longitudinal matched administrative data, which allows us to obtain information on a large sample of UI benefit claimants, and we use matching methods to evaluate the effect of the benefit cut. While UI claimants found jobs more rapidly as a result of the reform, this is a relatively small change, and we find only negligible negative effects of reemployment wages overall. The notion that changes are due to the reform is reinforced by the result that the effect on employment is largest for the group where the ‘bite’ of the reform was the largest. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the drastic cut seems to have reduced moral hazard for the most employable (those with tertiary education) and forced them to be ‘less picky’. This means that they took up lower wage jobs, but this effect was only temporary. Overall, the reform led to significantly lower income for over 60 percent of jobseekers, since the increase in labour income did not compensate for the large reduction in UI benefits paid; while only benefiting less than 10 percent of jobseekers, over a two-year horizon.

The Earth’s climate is projected to warm significantly in the 21st century, and this will affect human societies in many ways. Since sleep is a basic human need and part of everyone’s life, the question of how temperature affects human sleep naturally arises. This paper examines the effect of daily mean temperature on sleep duration using nationally representative Hungarian time use surveys between 1976 and 2010. Compared to a mild temperature (5-10 °C), colder temperatures do not influence sleep duration. However, as daily mean temperatures rise, sleep duration starts to strongly decline. The effect of a hot (>25 °C) day is −12.4 minutes. The estimated sleep loss is especially large on weekends and public holidays, for older individuals, and for men. Combining the estimated effects with temperature projections of twenty-four climate models under four climate change scenarios shows that the warming climate will substantially decrease sleep duration. The projected impacts are especially large when taking into account of the effects of heatwave days. This study also shows that different groups in society are likely to be affected in significantly different ways by a warming climate.

As part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP, 2023), the Hungarian government pledged to reform the pension system. The main themes are sustainability and adequacy. The pension plan is to be discussed publicly and put into law by March 2025. The last detailed official pension study was the 2016-discussion paper of the Hungarian National Bank which should be updated. The present study is a private work which may contribute to the improvement of the current pension system. The current and the projected states of the Hungarian pension system are outlined, and then simple and complex reforms are formulated. Naming just two reform steps, I start with the simplest step: the return to public discussion steered by a revitalized Fiscal Council and end with the most complex: the introduction of the flexible (variable) retirement age.

The working paper examines the role and development of the Central and Eastern European venture capital sector in the five years between 2016 and 2020. This period includes both the end of the recovery after the economic crisis in 2008 and the downturn due to the coronavirus crisis in 2019. A statistical analysis of venture capital funds and investments in the CEE region confirms that, while the overall position of the region in Europe did not change over the period under review, the differences between countries in the region increased sharply. The northern part of the region rivals the most developed countries in Europe, the central part is driven by an abundance of public resources, while the venture capital sector in the south is only in its infancy. The size of the venture capital funds in the region is far below the European average, so the start-ups only have a chance to become successful if they are involved in the international flow of venture capital. The role of the government in the funds in the region is extremely high, but the selection between companies is therefore not based solely on market considerations. Rent-seeking behaviour goes against the essence of venture capital. As a result of the deterioration of the global political and economic situation, the entire Central and Eastern European region is losing its ability to attract capital.

How do temporary spells of absence from work affect individuals’ labor trajectory? To answer this question, we augment a `wage ladder’ model, in which individuals receive alternative take-it-or-leave-it wage offers from firms and potentially suffer accidents which may push them into temporary absence. In such an environment, during absence, individuals do not have the opportunity to receive alternative wage offers that they would have received had they remained present. To test our model’s predictions and to quantify the importance of foregone opportunities to climb the wage ladder, we use linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary, that is linked to rich individual-level administrative health records. We use unexpected and mild accidents with arguably no permanent labor productivity losses, as exogenous drivers of short periods of absence. Difference-in-Differences results show that, relative to counterfactual outcomes in the case of no accidents, (i) even short (3-12-months long) periods of absence due to accidents decrease individuals’ wages for up to two years, by around 2.5 percent; and that (ii) individuals reallocate to lower-paying employers. The share of wage loss due to missed opportunities to switch employers is between 7-20 percent over a two-year period after returning to work, whereas at most 2 percent is due to occupation switches. Our results are robust to (a) instrumenting absence with having suffered an accident, (b) exploiting the random nature of the time of the accident, and (c) within-firm matching of individuals with and without an accident and subsequent absence spell.