This paper examines how temperature affects emergency department (ED) visits, using administrative data covering 50% of the Hungarian population and comprising 3.52 million outpatient visits from 2009 to 2017. Days with an average temperature above 25°C increase the ED visit rate by 4.65 visits per 100,000 people over an 11-day period (1.60% increase), compared to days with a mean temperature of 5–10°C. The effects of other warmer temperature categories are similarly positive, while colder temperatures show no significant impact. Higher humidity intensifies the heat effect, which is also stronger following consecutive hot days. Between 2009 and 2017, 46,800 ED visits (0.66% of total visits) were attributed to changes in the temperature distribution relative to 1950–1989. Furthermore, by the 2050s, compared to the early decades of the 21st century, the annual ED visit rate is projected to increase by 1.24%–1.70%, depending on the climate scenario. The future impacts of climate change are 30–40% stronger in low-income districts and disproportionately affect younger adults aged 18–44, who face over four times the impact compared to individuals aged 65 and older.
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