hu / en

Műhelytanulmányok

2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

Szerkesztő: Hajdu Tamás

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

Corruption Risk and Education at Regional Level

ISTVÁN JÁNOS TÓTH – MIKLÓS HAJDU

2023/35

In this study, we investigate the correlation between corruption risk and the level of education in European sub-national regions (NUTS2 level) between 2006 and 2020 in 16 member countries. We use the data of Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) covering the parameters of 6,766,274 public procurement contracts in total and NUTS2 level Eurostat data. We found that higher educational attainment is associated with lower corruption risk and a higher level of control of corruption, indicating that better-educated locals may force authorities to limit corruption risk as they have less tolerance for corrupt behavior. In addition, the results point out that the increasing level of education is associated with a decreasing level of corruption risk. Our study contributes to corruption research by using objective indicators characterizing the NUTS2 regions of some European countries.

2024

A területi béregyenlőtlenségek összetevői

CZALLER LÁSZLÓ – NEMES-NAGY JÓZSEF

2023/34

Ebben a tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a munkavállalók és a járások szintjén megfigyelt béregyenlőtlenségeknek mekkora hányadát magyarázzák a munkavállalói és munkáltatói jellemzők, illetve a térségek eltérő adottságai. Ehhez a Pénzügyminisztérium bértarifa-felvételét használjuk fel, ami részletes adatokkal szolgál a munkavállalók keresetéről, egyéni jellemzőiről, illetve a munkáltatókról. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy az egyének szintjén megfigyelt bérkülönbségek magyarázatában a munkavállalók jellemzői, ezen belül is főként a betöltött munkakör jellege, illetve az iskolai végzettség játssza a vezető szerepet. A munkáltatói szintű ismérvek magyarázóereje másodlagos, de még így is jelentősen meghaladja a térségi adottságok együttes hozzájárulását, ami legfeljebb 1-3%-ra tehető. A járási szintű átlagbér-különbségek vizsgálata során azt kapjuk, hogy a járások munkavállalói és munkáltatói összetétele a béregyenlőtlenségek háromnegyedéért felelős, az összetételhatás kiszűrésével a bruttó havi átlagbérek szórása harmadára csökken. Ezek az eredmények elsősorban a humán tőke fejlesztésére irányuló szakpolitikai beavatkozások szerepét húzzák alá a hátrányos helyzetű térségek jövedelmi felzárkóztatásában.

2024

Testing Corruption Indicators: Statistical Analysis of a Hungarian Cartel

ISTVÁN JÁNOS TÓTH – MIKLÓS HAJDU – MÁRTON VIDA

2023/33

The study analyzes the reliability of corruption risk indicators using Hungarian public procurement data, specifically focusing on EU-funded contracts associated with a cartel case revealed by the Hungarian Competition Authority (HCA) in 2016. The investigation aims to determine whether corruption risk indicators for public procurement contracts related to the identified cartel case (214 contracts) are significantly higher than those for similar contracts in different submarkets. The analysis utilizes data from the Corruption Research Center Budapest database, encompassing Hungarian public procurement information from January 1998 to July 2023, totaling around 340,000 contracts or contract lots. Since the cartel case detected by the HCA was part of the EU-funded KEOP program, covering contracts from 2015 to 2016 in the manufacturing sector, our analysis is limited to EU-subsidized contracts in the manufacturing sector awarded in 2015 and 2016.

Our findings highlight that the corruption risk indicator (single bid), endorsed by the EU Single Market Scoreboard, provides valuable insights for identifying anomalies in public procurement. For the identified cartel contracts, the likelihood of a contract being awarded to a single bidder (without competition) was significantly higher compared to contracts not associated with a cartel case. A similarly robust outcome was observed for the indicator measuring contracts concluded with more than three bids. The probability of contracts with more than three bids was significantly lower for cartel contracts than for others.

The indicator assessing the occurrence of rounded winner prices yielded a significant result for one of the three subsamples, and in another, it was significant only at the 10% level. These results affirm the significance of conducting statistical analyses on contracts and the calculation, as well as in-depth examination, of corruption indicators (single bid, more than three bids, and rounded winner price) to identify anomalies in public procurement.

2024

The effect of temperature on birth rates in Europe

TAMÁS HAJDU

2023/32

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat can only be expected in the long run, which suggests that climate change may have a negative impact on the number of live births in the twenty-first century.

2024

The Aftermaths of Lowering the School Leaving Age – Effects on Roma Youth

JÁNOS KÖLLŐ – ANNA SEBŐK

2023/31

In 2013, the Hungarian government cut the school leaving age from 18 to 16. We study the impact of this unique reform on the country’s sizeable Roma minority using census data on the universe of 17-year-olds in 2011 and a 10 percent random sample in 2016. School attendance fell by more than 20 percentage points among Roma youth as opposed to less than 6 points with their non-Roma counterparts. Roma’s post-reform drawbacks in school enrolment were predominantly explained by their family background, neighborhood characteristics, and, much less importantly, below-average school performance. Changes in local employment prospects had no remarkable impact on the post-reform ethnic gap. More stringent selection and self-selection by social status and school performance (rather than ethnicity) nevertheless affected the Roma minority disproportionally, with close to 30 percent of their 17-year-old children being out of education, training, and employment three years after the reform.

2024