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Műhelytanulmányok

2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

Szerkesztő: Hajdu Tamás

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

Centralized Clearing Mechanisms in Financial Networks: A Programming Approach

PÉTER CSÓKA – P. JEAN-JACQUES HERINGS

2022/08

We consider financial networks where agents are linked to each other with financial contracts. A centralized clearing mechanism collects the initial endowments, the liabilities and the division rules of the agents and determines the payments to be made. A division rule specifies how the assets of the agents should be rationed, the four most common ones being the proportional, the priority, the constrained equal awards, and the constrained equal losses division rules. Since payments made depend on payments received, we are looking for solutions to a system of equations. The set of solutions is known to have a lattice structure, leading to the existence of a least and a greatest clearing payment matrix. Previous research has shown how decentralized clearing selects the least clearing payment matrix. We present a centralized approach towards clearing in order to select the greatest clearing payment matrix. To do so, we formulate the determination of the greatest clearing payment matrix as a programming problem. When agents use proportional division rules, this programming problem corresponds to a linear programming problem. We show that for the other common division rules, it can be written as an integer linear programming problem.

2022

Understanding hesitancy with revealed preferences across COVID-19 vaccine types

KUTASI KRISTÓF – KOLTAI JÚLIA – SZABÓ-MORVAI ÁGNES – RÖST GERGELY – KARSAI MÁRTON – BIRÓ PÉTER – LENGYEL BALÁZS

2022/07

Many countries have secured larger quantities of COVID-19 vaccines than their populace is willing to take. This abundance and variety of vaccines created a historical moment to understand vaccine hesitancy better. Never before were more types of vaccines available for an illness and the intensity of vaccine-related public discourse is unprecedented. Yet, the heterogeneity of hesitancy by vaccine types in certain segments of society has been neglected so far, even though factual or believed vaccine characteristics and patient attributes are known to influence acceptance. In this paper, we address this problem by analysing acceptance and assessment of five vaccine types using information collected with a nationally representative survey (N=1000) at the end of the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary, where a unique portfolio of vaccines were available to the public in large quantities. Our special case enables us to quantify revealed preferences across vaccine types since one could evaluate a vaccine unacceptable and even could reject an assigned vaccine to wait for another type. We find that the source of information that respondents trust characterizes their attitudes towards vaccine types differently and leads to divergent vaccine hesitancy. Believers of conspiracy theories were significantly more likely to evaluate the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) unacceptable while those who follow the advice of politicians evaluate vector-based (AstraZeneca and Sputnik) or whole-virus vaccines (Sinopharm) acceptable with higher likelihood. We illustrate that the rejection of non-desired and re-selection of preferred vaccines fragments the population by the mRNA versus other type of vaccines while it generally improves the assessment of the received vaccine. These results highlight that greater variance of available vaccine types and individual free choice are desirable conditions that can widen the acceptance of vaccines in societies.

2022

The impact of spatial clustering of occupation on commuting time and employment status

TAMÁS BAKÓ – JUDIT KÁLMÁN

2022/06

In this study we reveal the impact of spatial clustering of occupations on the probability of employment and commuting time, with particular emphasis on differences between genders and household types. Based on Hungarian 2011 census data our research confirmed previous results of some USA studies according to which women work in less spatially clustered occupations compared to men. Our most important result is that more clustered the occupation, the longer the commuting time, and the lower the probability of employment. The effect of occupational clustering on commuting time is larger for women regardless of household type and for those living in a relationship compared to singles. Our further result is that the greater the occupational diversity of the place of residence, the shorter the commuting time and higher the probability of employment, and the occupational diversity of the place of residence modifies the effect of occupational clustering on commuting time.

2022

Return to skills and urban size: Evidence from the skill requirements of Hungarian firms

LÁSZLÓ CZALLER – ZOLTÁN HERMANN

2022/5

While most empirical studies document that cognitive and social skills are strong predictors of individual earnings, their impact is not homogenous in space. We argue that dense urban settings utilize cognitive and social skills more intensively than rural areas, therefore the labour market return to these skills is higher in cities. Using data from a representative survey recording the skills requirements of Hungarian firms, we show that social skills are rewarded more in dense urban areas. Surprisingly, this pattern is not observed for cognitive skills. We use instrumental variables strategy to correct for measurement errors in skills, and to deal with the endogeneity of agglomeration. Our results are robust to alternative agglomeration measures and a large set of controls, however, returns to skills vary considerably across worker groups and industries.

2022

Másfél év pandémia Magyarországon: Mérséklődő különbségek a regionális és korspecifikus többlethalandóságban

TÓTH G. CSABA

2022/4

A koronavírus-járvány első másfél évében 28,4 ezer fővel többen haltak meg Magyarországon, mint ahányan elhunytak volna ebben az időszakban a járvány nélkül. Az így mért többlethalandóság 1,7 ezerrel alacsonyabb, mint a koronavírus áldozataira vonatkozó hivatalos statisztika. Ez részben azzal magyarázható, hogy a koronavírus elleni védekezésnek köszönhetően elmaradt az influenzajárvány, ami korábban átlagosan évente 3 ezer ember halálát okozta. A második hullámhoz képest a harmadik hullámban csökkentek a többlethalandóságban mért különbségek mind a korcsoportok, mind a régiók között. Az előbbi esetében részben az oltási sorrendnek, illetve az elmaradt influenzának köszönhető, hogy jelentősen csökkent a 75 éves és annál idősebbek többlethalálozási rátája, miközben a 40-74 éves korosztályé kissé emelkedett. A régiók közül Észak-Magyarországon és Nyugat-Dunántúlon volt a legnagyobb a többlethalandóság, a fővárost is magában foglaló Közép-Magyarországon pedig a legalacsonyabb az országban. A férfiak többlethalandósági rátája a vizsgált másfél év egészében majdnem minden korcsoportban közel kétszer nagyobb volt mint a nőké.

2022