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Műhelytanulmányok

2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

Szerkesztő: Hajdu Tamás

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

Vállalkozóvá váló munkanélküliek jellemzői

BAKÓ TAMÁS – KÁLMÁN JUDIT–KÁROLYI RÓBERT

2022/21

Jelen tanulmányban azt vizsgáltuk, hogy a 2014-2015 között legalább egy napig regisztrált munkanélküliek milyen tulajdonságok mentén vesznek részt a vállalkozóvá válást elősegítő programokban Magyarországon. Az adatok azt mutatják, hogy némileg hátrányosabb helyzetűek azok a munkanélküliek, akik támogatást vettek igénybe a vállalkozásuk beindításához – magasabb a pályakezdők, nők, alacsonyabb a felsőfokú végzettségűek aránya, kisebb az átlagos járadék átlaga. Eredményeink szerint nagyon erős az iskolai végzettség, valamint az értelmiségi foglalkozás, korábbi vezetői pozíció összefüggése a vállalkozóvá válás és a támogató programban való részvétel esélyeivel is. Tehát támogató programmal és támogató program nélküli is a felsőfokú végzettséggel rendelkezők, szaktudással bírók esélyei a legnagyobbak a vállalkozóvá válásra, ugyanakkor ők azok is, akik ehhez nagyobb eséllyel élnek támogatással. Egyértelműen látszik az is, hogy mivel az EU támogatások miatt a konvergencia régiókban több ilyen képzéssel, mentorálással és alaptőke-biztosítással kombinált komplex program futott, mindenütt nagyobb volt az esélye a támogatásba kerülésnek, mint Közép-Magyarországon, ám a program térbeli eloszlása meglehetősen egyenlőtlen.

2023

The impact of childcare on maternal employment

BENCE SZABÓ – JUDIT BEREI – MÁRTON CSILLAG – HANNA ERŐS – JUDIT KREKÓ –ÁGOTA SCHARLE

2022/20

This paper examines the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment in Hungary based on 2016 Microcensus data. We exploit the exogenous variation in access to childcare due to informal admission practices based on the date of birth, to identify the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment and the children’s enrolment. We find that on average, expanding the coverage of nurseries to the same level as kindergartens would lead to around 7.3 percentage points higher maternal employment, an around 25% higher employment rate compared to the baseline of mothers with a child aged 2-2.5 years. At the same time, the decomposition of the link between childcare availability and employment shows that enrolment would increase by 17.7 percentage points due to the higher coverage, close to 40% compared to the baseline. Enrolment in childcare would increase maternal employment probability by around 41 percentage points, around two-thirds of the employment rate of mothers. We also examine the heterogeneities of the effect along demographic characteristics using causal forests, and the economic cycle by expanding the analysis to the 2011 Census. We find that in 2016 the childcare availability effect is higher for mothers with 3 children, living in villages, or municipalities without nurseries. The employment effect is lower in the 2011 Census, while the effect on enrolment in formal childcare remains similar, suggesting the importance of weaker labour demand in 2011.

2023

The gender gap in top jobs – the role of overconfidence

ANNA ADAMECZ-VÖLGYI – NIKKI SHURE

2022/19

There is a large gender gap in the probability of being in a “top job” in mid-career. Top jobs bring higher earnings, and also have more job security and better career trajectories. Recent literature has raised the possibility that some of this gap may be attributable to women not “leaning in” while men are more overconfident in their abilities. We use longitudinal data from childhood into mid-career and construct a measure of overconfidence using multiple measures of objective cognitive ability and subjective estimated ability. Our measure confirms previous findings that men are more overconfident than women. We then use linear regression and decomposition techniques to account for the gender gap in top jobs including our measure of overconfidence. Our results show that men being more overconfident explains 5-11 percent of the gender gap in top job employment. This indicates that while overconfidence matters for gender inequality in the labor market and has implications for how firms recruit and promote workers, other individual, structural, and societal factors play a larger role.

2023

No evidence of direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice—Evidence from Hungary

TAMÁS KELLER

2022/18

This paper investigates direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice in the stratified and selective Hungarian educational system and makes two contributions to the literature. First, it tests both peer-contrasting and peer-conforming influences by considering peers’ GPA and endogenous educational choices. Second, the paper investigates mechanisms behind peer-conforming educational choices (such as peers’ normative pressure and information potential), with a focus on two structurally different peer relationships: self-selected friends and randomly assigned deskmates. The study uses a unique dataset that merges administrative data with randomized field experiment data. The results show no evidence of peer influence, after accounting for unobserved classroom homogeneity. Within the classroom, peers’ ability did not decrease, and peers’ ambitious endogenous educational choices did not increase students’ own choice of the academic upper-secondary track. Concerning the mechanisms of peer-conforming educational choices, the results reveal that peers’ informational potential (but not their normative pressure) might be the mechanism that drives students to conform to peers’ choices. This paper interprets the absence of peer influence in upper-secondary track choices as evidence that peer influence cannot derail students’ socially determined educational choices.

2023

Longevity gap, indexation and age-specific average pensions

ANDRÁS SIMONOVITS

2022/17

Studying the age-dimension of the probability distribution of pensions while assuming steadily rising real wages and time-invariant benefit-rules, two factors play important roles: (i) the weight of the wages in indexation of benefits in progress; (ii) the longevity gap. Factor (i) acts against relative depreciation of older benefits, while factor (ii) raises the share of higher benefits among older cohorts. Using an example and a model we show how the shape of the average benefit–age-curve depends on the relation between these two factors.

2023