The Role of Flexible Wage Components in Gender Wage Differences



A main driver of the gender wage gap is that women earn a lower firm-specific wage premium than men. We document the role of flexible wage components in driving both within-firm and between-firm gender differences in firm premia. For this purpose, we link wage survey data on performance payments and overtime to an administrative linked employer-employee dataset from Hungary. We find that the gender gap in firm premia is negligible at firms that do not pay either performance payments or overtime, while it is more than 11 percent at firms where all employees receive performance- and overtime payments. These patterns are also present when we control for differences in the labor productivity of firms or after composition differences are accounted for using AKM models. Finally, a decomposition exercise shows that performance payments and overtime payments contribute 60 percent to the gender gap in firm premia and 25 percent to the overall gender gap.

Heterogeneity of Economic Expectations – Dissecting the Role of Socioeconomic Status



Economic decisions depend on economic expectations. Using Hungarian monthly survey data between 2000 and 2009, we show that the relationship between expectations (both at the macroeconomic and household levels) and socioeconomic status (SES), as represented by income rank and education level, is non-linear. In many instances, there is no significant difference in expectations between the two lower quintiles. However, individuals in the upper (fourth and top) quintiles exhibit significantly more positive expectations than those in the lower quintiles. There is also a clear difference in expectations between the fourth and the top quintiles. In terms of education level, individuals with a high-school degree have significantly more positive expectations compared to their peers without one. Significant differences in economic expectations are also observed between high-school graduates and individuals with a university diploma, particularly regarding inflation, savings expectations, and the assessment of the household’s future financial situation. Disparities in household-level expectations based on SES are more pronounced than those in macroeconomic expectations. Past experiences and household-level optimism seem to be key factors influencing macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we document that both macroeconomic and household-level expectations predict the intention for significant expenditures, even after controlling for SES variables.

Health Shocks, Social Insurance, and Firms



We study the role that firms play in social insurance benefit uptake after their workers experience health shocks. Social insurance in our setting, Hungary, is universal and comprehensive, thus allowing us to quantify the impact of firms on benefit uptake and labor market outcomes on top of the social safety net. Using matched employer-employee administrative data linked to individual-level health records, we find that firm responses to worker health shocks are heterogeneous: workers hit by a health shock at high-quality firms are less likely to take up disability insurance or exit the labor force than those at low-quality firms.

Regional resilience and the network structure of inter-industry labour flows



This paper explores how the network structure of local inter-industry labour flows relates to regional economic resilience across 72 local labour markets in Sweden. Drawing on recent advancements in network science, we stress-test these networks against the sequential elimination of their nodes, finding substantial heterogeneity in network robustness across regions. Regression analysis with LASSO selection in the context of the 2008 financial crisis indicates that labour flow network robustness is a prominent structural predictor of employment change during crisis. These findings elaborate on how variation in the self-organisation of regional economies as complex systems makes for more or less resilient regions.

A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2023

A közoktatás indikáttorendszere 2023 Budapest, 2024. Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia A kötet szerzői A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás Hermann Zoltán Horn Dániel Hőnich Heléna Varga Júlia Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid Olvasószerkesztő: Székács István Copyright © HUN-REN Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2024. május 6. Technikai útmutató "A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2023" című kiadványhoz Budapest, 2024. Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia (KRTK KTI) A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás (KRTK KTI) Hermann Zoltán (KRTK KTI) Hőnich Heléna (KRTK Adatbank) Horn Dániel (KRTK KTI) Varga Júlia (KRTK KTI) Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid Copyright © HUN-REN Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2024 Szemelvények "A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2023" című kiadványhoz Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás Hermann Zoltán Horn Dániel Hőnich Heléna Varga Júlia Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid A kiadvány megjelenését támogatta a Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Copyright © HUN-REN Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2024.  

What makes a new doctor better? Effects of new primary care physicians on healthcare provision



Using individual-level administrative panel data of all diabetic patients in Hungary for years 2010-2017, we analyze the effects of primary care characteristics on healthcare provision in rural areas by exploiting the change of the person of the general practitioner (GP), be it a temporary substitution or a permanent new doctor. We estimate event study models and focus on three mechanisms: (1) discontinuity of care itself, (2) changes in physician’s practice style and (3) changes in local healthcare supply conditions. We find that discontinuity of primary care has a significant positive effect on treatment (as measured by the quarterly probability of outpatient care use, glycated hemoglobin testing and statin use), but only if the new doctor is a permanent one. Treatment style matters: while male or older GPs have close to zero impact on most of the healthcare variables listed above, the effect of the new GP being female and being younger is 2-4 %points; we also find some evidence of the interaction of the gender of the doctor and the patient affecting treatment. Finally, local healthcare supply conditions such as practice size do not influence significantly the variables in our case.

Economic Preferences across Generations and Family Clusters: A Comment



Chowdhury, Sutter and Zimmermann (2022) assessed the risk, time, and social preferences of family members in rural Bangladesh, presenting two main findings. First, there is a strong and positive association between family members’ preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and family background. Second, families can be grouped into two clusters: approximately 20% of the families are characterized by relatively impatient, risk-averse, and spiteful members, while the rest of the families have relatively patient, risk-tolerant, and prosocial members. Recognizing the pivotal role of cluster analysis in deriving the second result, we first successfully computationally reproduced the results, and then we conducted two types of robustness checks. The first examines the transformation of variables (continuous or categorical), affecting the proximity measure that is crucial to cluster analysis. The second assesses the effect of varying the number of clusters on the findings. Some results are robust, as we consistently find the small cluster of families identified by Chowdhury et al. (2022). However, divergent outcomes emerge with categorical variables (a logical choice given their nature) and a larger number of clusters (3 or 4). We conclude that, although the cluster analysis by Chowdhury et al. (2022) is valid, its outcomes significantly depend on the researcher’s assumptions and choices. Careful consideration of several alternatives is essential in exploratory cluster analysis to identify stable groups.

Endogenous language use and patience



The linguistic-savings hypothesis posits that the grammatical marking of future events in languages is linked to future-oriented behavior. Recent experimental studies have suggested patience as a possible mechanism connecting language use and future-oriented behavior by exogenously manipulating what language is used. Our paper explores the association between patience and the language that people naturally use, thereby building on endogenous (as opposed to exogenously manipulated) language use. To capture natural language usage, we utilized a novel sentence-completion task designed for native speakers of the Hungarian language. This language allows for referencing future events through both present and future tenses. We hypothesized a positive correlation between being patient and using the present tense to refer to future events. We conducted incentivized and non-incentivized experiments with four independent samples of high school and university students, involving nearly 3,500 students in total. We find no consistent evidence that patience is correlated with endogenous future-time reference. Our null finding is further supported by a robustness check that leverages specific randomness in our data.

Family foster care or residential care: the impact of home environment on children raised in state care



This paper investigates how the type of home environment – family foster care or residential care – affects the adult outcomes of individuals who were raised in state care during adolescence. While it is established in the literature that living in residential care is detrimental for babies, the effect of living in different types of care as an older child is underexplored. We use Hungarian individual-level administrative panel data and follow the children from age 13 until age 19. We show that the adult outcomes of adolescents who grew up in a foster family are substantially better even after controlling for a rich set of variables, including indicators of cognitive and non-cognitive skills, and mental problems observed at age 13. Young adults who grew up in family foster care are 8 percentage points more likely to complete secondary education, and 11 percentage points less likely to spend at least 6 months without either working or studying at age 19, than comparable peers raised in residential care. Using mental health medication is 5 percentage points less likely. For girls, the probability of teenage birth and abortion are smaller by 12 percentage points each. IV estimations using local foster mother capacity as an instrument reinforce the beneficial effect of family foster care.

Statistical overstatement of average wages and its impact on pensions: the case of Hungary



In Hungary, initial pensions are indexed to average net wages, reported by official earnings statistics (ES), which does not cover the economy as whole. However, there is alternative statistical source on labour income, the national accounts (NA), intended to cover the total economy. The latter indicate a markedly lower rate of growth in wages than the ES for the period between 2010 and 2020 (4.9 vs. 1.9 percent increase in real gross wages per year). Relying on feasibility tests, we show that the rapid increase reported by the ES cannot, while the milder growth shown by the NA can be reconciled with relevant macroeconomic developments, e.g., changes in productivity and household consumption. We, therefore, claim that the ES overstated the actual increase in wages at the national level during the 2010s, and make our own calculations regarding the path of net wages and implied (hypothetical) initial pensions. The main implications of this exercise are the following: (i) the actual increase in initial benefits (linked to net wages, as reported by the ES) was excessive; (ii) in our estimate, the ratio of average benefits to average net wages did not fall by the extent shown by official statistics (the former is linked to the increase in prices, rather than that of wages). Moreover, (iii) the accumulation of major tensions between cohorts retiring in subsequent years might have been reduced by relying on the more plausible wage statistics reported by the NA, and by taking into account the impact of the dramatically reduced social contribution rate (paid by employers) in calculating initial benefits.

John von Neumann’s game-theoretic legacy



John von Neumann (Budapest, 1903–Washington D.C., 1957) was an exceptional polymath, who made fundamental contributions to mathematical logics, functional analysis, quantum mechanics, game theory, computer architecture and automata theory. In this brief paper, I shall review the game-theoretic results of von Neumann and their legacy in an informal way.

Comparative analysis of the evolution of the CE4 countries’ national innovation systems and their innovation performance in 2000–2020



This paper compares the evolution of CE4 countries’ (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) national innovation systems, as well as their innovation performance. Its analytical framework draws on evolutionary (and institutional) economics of innovation. Given the structural features and the level of socio-economic development in the CE4 countries, as well as the dominant way of thinking since the cold war, Western politicians, business people, analysts and journalists tend to share a ‘block’ view of these countries. Further, there is a noticeable – and certainly understandable – ‘drive’ also from the academic community to produce findings that can be generalised across the new EU member states, but at least for the CE4 countries, that is, to focus on identifying shared or similar features. Yet a closer look at the structure of the national innovation systems in these countries, as well as at their innovation performance, points to a different direction. While the structural composition of the research sub-systems of the CE4 countries showed a great diversity already in 2000, fairly significant changes have occurred since then almost in all countries, adding more colours to the observed diversity. Neither a similar structural composition of the research sub-system can be observed, nor a move towards a similar structure. Their innovation performance is also diverse. Given the diversity among innovation systems, one should be very careful when trying to draw policy lessons from the ‘rank’ of a country as ‘measured’ by a composite indicator. The CE4 countries, therefore, need to avoid the trap of paying too much attention to simplifying ranking exercises. Instead, it is of utmost importance to conduct detailed, thorough comparative analyses, identifying the reasons for a reasonable or disappointing performance.

Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy implications



Policy-makers – working on various domains, notably regulations, home affairs, security, science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies – need to pay close attention to possible new ways and methods for the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. This paper is aimed at assisting these policy-makers by presenting four possible futures (scenarios) on the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities and considering their implications. These scenarios assume that the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities – just as most other types of crime – cannot be fully eradicated. There are two competing groups of actors whose capacities, activities, and efficiency largely determine the possibilities for, and repercussions of, the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: criminal actors and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). The scenarios, therefore, are shaped by two main dimensions: i) whether LEAs are well-resourced, strong, and effective or not, and ii) whether large criminal organisations or small-scale ones are the dominant criminal actors. Hence, the four scenarios consider various types of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors that influence actors to commit – or not – criminal economic activities; the main types of these activities; features of regulations; research, technological development, and innovation activities by the criminal actors vs LEAs; as well as the activities, capabilities, and resources of LEAs. By considering the nature of the criminal activities that aim at penetrating lawful economic activities, and the options to prevent, monitor, and fight these crimes, the report explores a range of policy implications, especially for STI policies and regulations. Further, it stresses the multi-level nature of policy-making in the EU, as well as the need for collaboration with the willing countries outside the EU. Criminal actors can penetrate lawful economic activities in the EU when commissioned by hostile (‘rogue’) states that aim to weaken and/or undermine the EU and its Member States as part of their geopolitical power games.

Does cutting the value of unemployment insurance benefits affect take-up? Evidence from Hungary



Does a drastic cut in in potential benefit duration affect the take-up of unemployment insurance benefits among those eligible? We evaluate a policy change reducing the maximum length of UI benefits from 9 to 3 months in Hungary at the end of 2011. We rely on rich longitudinal matched administrative data, which allows us to obtain information on a large sample of job losers, and precisely estimate eligibility for UI benefits. We find that slightly less than 60 percent of UI eligible individuals claim benefits, and that while the length of benefit entitlement is only slightly positively correlated with taking up benefits, UI claiming rate tends to increase with previous earnings. We show that the proportion of UI benefit claims fell only slightly (by 1.5 – 2 percentage points), but this effect was more pronounced for those with the largest potential losses in UI value. This moderate effect might be related to the fact that the reform essentially got rid of the period of flat-rate UI benefits, while keeping the period when UI benefits were proportional to previous earnings roughly unchanged.  At the same time, UI take-up decreased among those with low earnings (around the minimum wage) but stable employment, a group with likely little savings, which is alarming from a social policy perspective.

Corruption Risk and Education at Regional Level



In this study, we investigate the correlation between corruption risk and the level of education in European sub-national regions (NUTS2 level) between 2006 and 2020 in 16 member countries. We use the data of Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) covering the parameters of 6,766,274 public procurement contracts in total and NUTS2 level Eurostat data. We found that higher educational attainment is associated with lower corruption risk and a higher level of control of corruption, indicating that better-educated locals may force authorities to limit corruption risk as they have less tolerance for corrupt behavior. In addition, the results point out that the increasing level of education is associated with a decreasing level of corruption risk. Our study contributes to corruption research by using objective indicators characterizing the NUTS2 regions of some European countries.

A területi béregyenlőtlenségek összetevői



Ebben a tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a munkavállalók és a járások szintjén megfigyelt béregyenlőtlenségeknek mekkora hányadát magyarázzák a munkavállalói és munkáltatói jellemzők, illetve a térségek eltérő adottságai. Ehhez a Pénzügyminisztérium bértarifa-felvételét használjuk fel, ami részletes adatokkal szolgál a munkavállalók keresetéről, egyéni jellemzőiről, illetve a munkáltatókról. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy az egyének szintjén megfigyelt bérkülönbségek magyarázatában a munkavállalók jellemzői, ezen belül is főként a betöltött munkakör jellege, illetve az iskolai végzettség játssza a vezető szerepet. A munkáltatói szintű ismérvek magyarázóereje másodlagos, de még így is jelentősen meghaladja a térségi adottságok együttes hozzájárulását, ami legfeljebb 1-3%-ra tehető. A járási szintű átlagbér-különbségek vizsgálata során azt kapjuk, hogy a járások munkavállalói és munkáltatói összetétele a béregyenlőtlenségek háromnegyedéért felelős, az összetételhatás kiszűrésével a bruttó havi átlagbérek szórása harmadára csökken. Ezek az eredmények elsősorban a humán tőke fejlesztésére irányuló szakpolitikai beavatkozások szerepét húzzák alá a hátrányos helyzetű térségek jövedelmi felzárkóztatásában.

Testing Corruption Indicators: Statistical Analysis of a Hungarian Cartel



The study analyzes the reliability of corruption risk indicators using Hungarian public procurement data, specifically focusing on EU-funded contracts associated with a cartel case revealed by the Hungarian Competition Authority (HCA) in 2016. The investigation aims to determine whether corruption risk indicators for public procurement contracts related to the identified cartel case (214 contracts) are significantly higher than those for similar contracts in different submarkets. The analysis utilizes data from the Corruption Research Center Budapest database, encompassing Hungarian public procurement information from January 1998 to July 2023, totaling around 340,000 contracts or contract lots. Since the cartel case detected by the HCA was part of the EU-funded KEOP program, covering contracts from 2015 to 2016 in the manufacturing sector, our analysis is limited to EU-subsidized contracts in the manufacturing sector awarded in 2015 and 2016. Our findings highlight that the corruption risk indicator (single bid), endorsed by the EU Single Market Scoreboard, provides valuable insights for identifying anomalies in public procurement. For the identified cartel contracts, the likelihood of a contract being awarded to a single bidder (without competition) was significantly higher compared to contracts not associated with a cartel case. A similarly robust outcome was observed for the indicator measuring contracts concluded with more than three bids. The probability of contracts with more than three bids was significantly lower for cartel contracts than for others. The indicator assessing the occurrence of rounded winner prices yielded a significant result for one of the three subsamples, and in another, it was significant only at the 10% level. These results affirm the significance of conducting statistical analyses on contracts and the calculation, as well as in-depth examination, of corruption indicators (single bid, more than three bids, and rounded winner price) to identify anomalies in public procurement.


Társadalmi egyenlőtlenség és mobilitás

Szabó-Morvai Ágnes - Pető Rita


Kötetünk ebben az évben a társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek és a társadalmi mobilitás témakörét járja körül. Széles áttekintést nyújt a témában elérhető közgazdasági és szociológiai elemzésekből, amelyek segítségével végig veszi az emberi élet szakaszait a születéstől az időskorig. Minden életszakaszban a jellemző társadalmi egyenlőtlenségi dimenziókat elemzi, gyermekkorban például az oktatásban, felnőttkorban a munkaerőpiacon, időskorban pedig a nyugdíjrendszerben megfigyelhető társadalmi egyenlőtlenségekre mutat rá. A kötet letölthető egy file-ként pdf-ben vagy fejezetenként: Címnegyed és tartalom Szerzők Előszó Magyarországi munkapiac, 2022 (Bakó Tamás & Lakatos Judit) Közelkép. Társadalmi egyenlőtlenség és mobilitás Bevezetés (Pető Rita) 1. Szubjektív gazdasági egyenlőtlenségek és univerzalizmus Magyarországon (Gáspár Attila) 2. Társadalmi különbségek a gyermekek egészségi állapotában Magyarországon a 21. század második évtizedében (Hajdu Tamás & Kertesi Gábor) 3. Társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek az oktatásban 3.1. Oktatási és társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek Magyarországon (Varga Júlia) 3.2. A teszteredmények társadalmi egyenlőtlensége és az általános iskolai szegregáció (Hermann Zoltán, Kertesi Gábor & Varga Júlia) 3.3. Iskolai szegregáció, tanulói teljesítmény és iskolai továbbhaladás Magyarországon (Hermann Zoltán & Kisfalusi Dorottya) K3.1. A kompenzációs előny szerepe az elérni kívánt legmagasabb iskolai végzettség egyenlőtlenségeiben (Drucker Luca Flóra) 3.4. A hatosztályos gimnáziumi szelekció és eredményesség (Horn Dániel) 3.5. Az iskolák heterogenitásának hozzájárulása a későbbi béregyenlőtlenségekhez a fiatal munkavállalók esetében (Boza István & Horn Dániel) 3.6. A koronavírus-járvány és az iskolai teszteredmények egyenlőtlensége (Boza István & Hermann Zoltán) 3.7. Az oktatásirányítás és -finanszírozás központosításának hatása az oktatási egyenlőtlenségekre (Hermann Zoltán & Semjén András) 3.8. A kötelező iskolalátogatási korhatár csökkentésének munkapiaci és gyermekvállalási hatásai (Adamecz Anna, Prinz Dániel & Szabó-Morvai Ágnes) K3.2. 20 év alatti várandósok: mennyire jellemző és mi befolyásolja a hátrányos helyzetet? (Szabó Laura & Makay Zsuzsanna) K3.3. Az iskolalátogatási korhatár csökkentése – hatása a roma fiatalokra (Köllő János & Sebők Anna) 4. Felnőttkorban megjelenő társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek 4.1. A személyi tőkejövedelmek jellemzői és a jövedelemeloszlásban betöltött szerepük 2007 és 2021 között (Krekó Judit & Tóth G. Csaba) K4.1. A nemek közti különbség a tőkejövedelmek eloszlásában (Krekó Judit & Tóth G. Csaba) 4.2. Hogyan lesz az etnikai előítéletből foglalkoztatási diszkrimináció? A kisvállalatok szerepe (Kertesi Gábor, Köllő János, Károlyi Róbert & Szabó Lajos Tamás) 4.3. A szegénység helyzete Magyarországon (Gábos András & Tátrai Annamária) K4.2. Jövedelmi szegénység a közfoglalkoztatottak körében (Gábos András & Claudia Colombarolli) 4.4. Szegénység és kapcsolati tőke (Albert Fruzsina & Hajdu Gábor) 4.5. Kapcsolathálózatok és jövedelemegyenlőtlenség a magyar városokban (Lengyel Balázs, Tóth Gergő & Johannes Wachs) 4.6. Az egészségi állapot egyenlőtlenségei Magyarországon (Kollányi Zsófia) K4.3. Roma nők várandósgondozási és szülészeti ellátási hátránya (Szabó Laura & Veroszta Zsuzsanna) 4.7. Földrajzi és szocioökonómiai tényezők szerepe az egészségügyben – becslések országon belüli költözések alapján (Elek Péter, Győrfi Anita, Kungl Nóra & Prinz Dániel) 4.8. Generációk közötti transzferek és lakásmobilitás – fiatalok lakásszerzési lehetőségei és korlátai (Kőszeghy Lea, Győri Ágnes & Csizmady Adrienne) 5. Időskori társadalmi egyenlőtlenség – nyugdíj-egyenlőtlenségek Magyarországon (Reiff Ádám & Simonovits András) 6. Társadalmi mobilitás 6.1. Mit mondanak az egyetemi évkönyvek a társadalmi mobilitásról? (Gáspár Attila & Pető Rita) 6.2. A társadalmi mobilitás nemek közötti egyenlőtlenségei Magyarországon (Huszár Ákos, Győri Ágnes & Balogh Karolina) 6.3. Kapott vagyontranszferek és ezek hatása a háztartás vagyonára (Medgyesi Márton) 6.4. A társadalom felső és alsó csoportjaiba irányuló iskolai mobilitási folyamatok Magyarországon (Huszár Ákos, Balogh Karolina & Győri Ágnes) 6.5. Első generációs diplomások Magyarországon (Adamecz Anna) 6.6. Szülői háttér és az oktatás munkaerőpiaci megtérülése, 2005–2019-ben Magyarországon – becslési kísérlet az EU–SILC-adatok alapján (Tóth István György & Csathó Ábel) A munkapiaci szakpolitika eszközei (Hajdu Miklós, Makó Ágnes, Nábelek Fruzsina & Nyírő Zsanna) Statisztikai adatok (Czethoffer Éva) Munkapiaci kutatások, válogatott bibliográfia, 2022 (Bálint Éva) Függelék. Táblázatok és ábrák jegyzéke

The effect of temperature on birth rates in Europe



Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat can only be expected in the long run, which suggests that climate change may have a negative impact on the number of live births in the twenty-first century.

The Aftermaths of Lowering the School Leaving Age – Effects on Roma Youth



In 2013, the Hungarian government cut the school leaving age from 18 to 16. We study the impact of this unique reform on the country's sizeable Roma minority using census data on the universe of 17-year-olds in 2011 and a 10 percent random sample in 2016. School attendance fell by more than 20 percentage points among Roma youth as opposed to less than 6 points with their non-Roma counterparts. Roma's post-reform drawbacks in school enrolment were predominantly explained by their family background, neighborhood characteristics, and, much less importantly, below-average school performance. Changes in local employment prospects had no remarkable impact on the post-reform ethnic gap. More stringent selection and self-selection by social status and school performance (rather than ethnicity) nevertheless affected the Roma minority disproportionally, with close to 30 percent of their 17-year-old children being out of education, training, and employment three years after the reform.


Contribution of High School Heterogeneity to the Wage Variation of Young Workers



The aim of this paper is to quantify how much of the initial wage differentials of young workers is explained by the secondary school they attended, and to disentangle the (descriptive) channels contributing to these differences. The analysis is based on the HUN-REN CERS Admin3 database, taking advantage of the fact that for some cohorts, young people’s secondary schooling (and students’ school standardized mathematics test scores) and wage outcomes at their early career can be observed simultaneously. Using wage decomposition methods, we separate the channels of firm and occupational selection from the direct returns to further education. Our analysis suggests that about 10 percent of the total wage dispersion of young people aged 18-25 (and already working) is generated at the school level. This also implies that the correlation between the wages of any two students of the same school is 0.1. Another novelty of the paper is that we show that a substantial part of these correlations are due to occupational and workplace selection (e.g. students from a given school type are systematically more likely to go on to well-paid jobs). If we remove these selection effects, the effect of schools on wage dispersion, the correlation between the latent skills of students, shrinks to 4 percent. Finally, we also compare schools of different quality based on different school characteristics (e.g. average test scores), which allows us to further stress the importance of the selection channels.


A startupokat finanszírozó intézmények működése Kelet-Közép Európában

Karsai Judit


A könyv a startupokat világszerte segítő és finanszírozó intézmények működését tekinti át. Így bemutatja az üzleti inkubátorok, akcelelrátorok, üzleti angyalok, startupstúdiók, sajáttőke-alapú közösségi finanszírozási platformok, valamint a kockázatitőke-alapok nemzetközileg jellemző működését, majd ennek a kelet-közép-európai régióban tapasztalható jellegzetességeit. Az elemzés nagyszámú konkrét példa és statisztikai adat alapján azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hat egymásra az üzleti inkubációs szakaszban elérhető értékteremtő szolgáltatásokat nyújtó, valamint a tőkeellátást biztosító intézmények tevékenysége. A könyv egyúttal arra is választ keres, hogy az említett intézmények e régióban mennyire képesek érdemi segítséget nyújtani az itt megszülető ígéretes technológiaalapú, induló vállalkozások megerősödéséhez, nemzetközi sikereihez, hogyan képesek csökkenteni a régióból induló cégek azon tudásbeli és finanszírozási hátrányát, amely a piacgazdaság megkésett kiépüléséből, a vállalkozási tudás generációs átadásának nehézségeiből s a kockázatitőke-ágazat fejletlenségéből adódik. Kiadja a  KRTK Közgazdaságtudományi Intézet, Budapest, 2023. A könyv a Nemzeti Kutatási, Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal – NKFIH támogatásával, a K 128682. számú szerződés keretében valósult meg.  

The Macroeconomics of Managers: Supply, Selection, and Competition



Good management practices are important determinants of firm success. It is unclear, however, to what extent pro-management policies can shape aggregate outcomes. We use data on corporations and their top managers in Hungary during and after its post-communist transition to document a number of salient patterns. First, the number of managers is low under communism when most employment is in large conglomerates. After the transition to capitalism, the number of managers increased sharply. Second, economics and business degrees became more popular with capitalist transition. Third, newly entering managers tended to run smaller firms than incumbent managers. We build a dynamic equilibrium model to explain these facts. In the model, the number and average quality of managers react to schooling and career choice. We use the model to evaluate hypothetical policies aiming to improve aggregate productivity through management education and corporate liberalization. Our results suggest that variations in the supply of good managers are important to understand the success of management interventions.

Poor housing quality and the health of newborns and young children



This study uses linked administrative data on live births, hospital stays, and census records for children born in Hungary between 2006 and 2011 to examine the relationship between poor housing quality and the health of newborns and children aged 1-2 years. We show that poor housing quality, defined as lack of access to basic sanitation and exposure to polluting heating, is not a negligible problem even in a high-income EU country like Hungary. This is particularly the case for disadvantaged children, 20-25% of whom live in extremely poor-quality homes. Next, we provide evidence that poor housing quality is strongly associated with lower health at birth and a higher number of days spent in inpatient care at the age of 1-2 years. These results indicate that lack of access to basic sanitation, hygiene, and non-polluting heating and their health impacts cannot be considered as the exclusive problem for low- and middle-income countries. In high-income countries, there is also a need for public policy programs that identify those affected by poor housing quality and offer them potential solutions to reduce the adverse effects on their health.

Competition, confidence and gender: shifting the focus from the overconfident to the realistic



The gender gap in competitiveness is argued to explain gender differences in later life outcomes, including career choices and the gender wage gap. In experimental settings, a prevalent explanation attributes this gap to males being more (over)confident than females (we call this the compositional channel). While our lab-in-the-field study using data from students in 53 classrooms (N$>$1000) reproduces this finding, it also uncovers a second, potentially more impactful channel of confidence contributing to the gender gap in competitiveness (the preference channel). To disentangle the two channels, we propose a more precise measure of confidence based on whether the subjects’ believed performance rank exceeds, coincides with or falls short of their actual performance in a real-effort task. We label categories of this Guessed - Actual Performance (GAP) difference as overconfident, realistic or underconfident, respectively. Surprisingly, there is no gender difference in competitiveness within the over- and underconfident subgroups, while a significant gender gap exists among the realistic. So, even if both genders had the same level of confidence, a persistent gender gap in preference (or taste) for competition would remain in the realistic group. This finding is robust across all specifications, challenging previous theories about the overconfidence of men being the sole driver of the relationship between confidence and the gender gap in competition.

Evaluating the effect of a drastic cut in unemployment benefit duration on re-employment and wages of jobseekers



We evaluate the effect of a drastic cut in potential benefit duration, reducing the maximum length of UI benefits from 9 to 3 months in Hungary at the end of 2011. We rely on rich longitudinal matched administrative data, which allows us to obtain information on a large sample of UI benefit claimants, and we use matching methods to evaluate the effect of the benefit cut. While UI claimants found jobs more rapidly as a result of the reform, this is a relatively small change, and we find only negligible negative effects of reemployment wages overall. The notion that changes are due to the reform is reinforced by the result that the effect on employment is largest for the group where the ‘bite’ of the reform was the largest. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the drastic cut seems to have reduced moral hazard for the most employable (those with tertiary education) and forced them to be ‘less picky’. This means that they took up lower wage jobs, but this effect was only temporary. Overall, the reform led to significantly lower income for over 60 percent of jobseekers, since the increase in labour income did not compensate for the large reduction in UI benefits paid; while only benefiting less than 10 percent of jobseekers, over a two-year horizon.

Temperature exposure and sleep duration: evidence from time use surveys



The Earth’s climate is projected to warm significantly in the 21st century, and this will affect human societies in many ways. Since sleep is a basic human need and part of everyone's life, the question of how temperature affects human sleep naturally arises. This paper examines the effect of daily mean temperature on sleep duration using nationally representative Hungarian time use surveys between 1976 and 2010. Compared to a mild temperature (5-10 °C), colder temperatures do not influence sleep duration. However, as daily mean temperatures rise, sleep duration starts to strongly decline. The effect of a hot (>25 °C) day is −12.4 minutes, but if preceded by a few other hot days, the effect is even stronger, −22.7 minutes. The estimated sleep loss is especially large on weekends and public holidays, for older individuals, and men. Combining the estimated effects with temperature projections of twenty-four climate models shows that the warming climate will substantially decrease sleep duration. The projected impacts are especially large when taking into account the effects of heatwave days. This study also shows that different groups in society are likely to be affected in significantly different ways by a warming climate.

A rational pension reform package: Hungary, 2025



As part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP, 2023), the Hungarian government pledged to reform the pension system. The main themes are sustainability and adequacy. The pension plan is to be discussed publicly and put into law by March 2025. The last detailed official pension study was the 2016-discussion paper of the Hungarian National Bank which should be updated. The present study is a private work which may contribute to the improvement of the current pension system. The current and the projected states of the Hungarian pension system are outlined, and then simple and complex reforms are formulated. Naming just two reform steps, I start with the simplest step: the return to public discussion steered by a revitalized Fiscal Council and end with the most complex: the introduction of the flexible (variable) retirement age.

The development of the Central and Eastern European venture capital market in Europe



The working paper examines the role and development of the Central and Eastern European venture capital sector in the five years between 2016 and 2020. This period includes both the end of the recovery after the economic crisis in 2008 and the downturn due to the coronavirus crisis in 2019. A statistical analysis of venture capital funds and investments in the CEE region confirms that, while the overall position of the region in Europe did not change over the period under review, the differences between countries in the region increased sharply. The northern part of the region rivals the most developed countries in Europe, the central part is driven by an abundance of public resources, while the venture capital sector in the south is only in its infancy. The size of the venture capital funds in the region is far below the European average, so the start-ups only have a chance to become successful if they are involved in the international flow of venture capital. The role of the government in the funds in the region is extremely high, but the selection between companies is therefore not based solely on market considerations. Rent-seeking behaviour goes against the essence of venture capital. As a result of the deterioration of the global political and economic situation, the entire Central and Eastern European region is losing its ability to attract capital.

Egy észszerű nyugdíjreform csomag: Magyarország, 2025



Egy EU kezdeményezés miatt a magyar kormányzatnak szoros ütemterv szerint ki kell dolgoznia egy cselekvési tervet, amelynek része egy nyugdíjreform is. A tervet nyilvánosan meg kell vitatni, majd törvénybe iktatni. Az utolsó nyilvános és részletes nyugdíjtanulmány MNB műhelytanulmányként 2016-ban jelent meg, amely az azóta bekövetkezett változások miatt szükségképpen felfrissítésre vár. Addig is érdemesnek láttam egy észszerű nyugdíjreform-csomagot felvázolni, amely a jelenlegi rendszert hatékonyabbá és méltányosabbá tenné. Először a mai helyzetet körvonalazom, majd az egyszerűbb és a bonyolultabb reformok irányait mutatom be. Itt csak azt említem meg, hogy vissza kellene térni a 2008 és 2010 közti Költségvetési Tanács gyakorlatához, amelynek Titkárságán kiváló szakemberek serege dolgozott a nyugdíjreformhoz hasonló kérdéseken. A megvalósíthatóság politikai feltételeivel nem foglalkozom.

Accident-Induced Absence from Work and Wage Ladders



How do temporary spells of absence from work affect individuals’ labor trajectory? To answer this question, we augment a `wage ladder' model, in which individuals receive alternative take-it-or-leave-it wage offers from firms and potentially suffer accidents which may push them into temporary absence. In such an environment, during absence, individuals do not have the opportunity to receive alternative wage offers that they would have received had they remained present. To test our model's predictions and to quantify the importance of foregone opportunities to climb the wage ladder, we use linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary, that is linked to rich individual-level administrative health records. We use unexpected and mild accidents with arguably no permanent labor productivity losses, as exogenous drivers of short periods of absence. Difference-in-Differences results show that, relative to counterfactual outcomes in the case of no accidents, (i) even short (3-12-months long) periods of absence due to accidents decrease individuals' wages for up to two years, by around 2.5 percent; and that (ii) individuals reallocate to lower-paying employers. The share of wage loss due to missed opportunities to switch employers is between 7-20 percent over a two-year period after returning to work, whereas at most 2 percent is due to occupation switches. Our results are robust to (a) instrumenting absence with having suffered an accident, (b) exploiting the random nature of the time of the accident, and (c) within-firm matching of individuals with and without an accident and subsequent absence spell.

In utero shocks and health at birth: the distorting effect of fetal losses



Research on the effect of in utero shocks on health at birth may be influenced by in utero selection. This study outlines a conceptual framework and shows that the results of the standard empirical approach are biased if (i) the exposure changes the probability of fetal death and (ii) health differences exist between deceased and surviving fetuses. Furthermore, an empirical example is provided to illustrate, the potential importance of fetal selection. Examining the impact of heat on birth weight, I find that accounting for fetal selection substantially increases the heat effect compared to the standard approach. These results suggest that incorporating the distorting effect of fetal losses into the estimations may be critical in some cases to provide more informed guidance for public policy.


The Labor Market Effects of Disability Benefit Loss



Disability benefits are costly and tend to reduce labor supply.  While costs can be reduced by careful targeting, correcting past eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. We study a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries. Leveraging age and health cutoffs in the reassessment, we estimate employment responses to loss or reduction of benefits. We find that among those who left disability insurance due to the reform, 57% were employed in the primary labor market and 38% had neither employment nor benefit income. The consequences of leaving disability insurance sharply differed by pre-reform employment status. 62% of those without pre-reform employment did not work after exiting disability insurance, whereas this ratio was only 14% for those who had some employment in the pre-reform year. The gains of the reform in activating beneficiaries were small and strongly driven by pre-reform employment status. This points to the importance of combining financial incentives with broader labor market programs that increase employability.

Geographic and Socioeconomic Variation in Healthcare: Evidence from Migration



We study variation in healthcare utilization across geographies and socioeconomic groups in Hungary. Exploiting migration across geographic regions and relying on high-quality administrative data on healthcare use and income we show that the role of place-specific supply factors is heterogeneous across types of care and across socioeconomic groups. Overall, place-specific factors account for 68% of the variation in outpatient spending and 35% of the variation in drug spending, but almost none of the variation in inpatient spending. Place effects explain four-fifth of outpatient spending variation for non-employed working-age individuals, but less than two-fifth for individuals with above-median wage incomes. There is a positive association between place effects and outpatient capacity, especially for low-income individuals. These results suggest that access to healthcare varies especially for low-income people even in a context with universal coverage.

The Incentive Effects of Sickness Benefit for the Unemployed – Analysis of a Reduction in Potential Benefit Duration



In Hungary, employees could claim sickness insurance benefit within 3 days of job-loss, which would enable them to extend their benefit duration by up to 90 days. The maximum number of days of this ‘passive sickness benefit’ was halved in 2007. We first investigate whether claiming passive sickness benefit was related to the monetary advantage relative to claiming unemployment insurance benefits. Then, we explore the effect of potential benefit duration on the transitions to stable employment relying on the variation induced by the policy change. Relying on high quality longitudinal matched administrative data we can estimate these relationships while using controls for employment histories and healthcare spending. On the one hand, we find that passive sickness benefit claiming behavior was indeed correlated with the financial gains. On the other hand, we find only a very small and insignificant immediate effect on transitions to employment when maximum benefit duration was cut by 45 days. However, we find that job finding hazard on the week after benefit exhaustion increased more for individuals who were not on sick leave just prior to job-loss. Our finding is suggestive that a non-negligible proportion of this group were subject to moral hazard.

Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe



Using data for 201 regions (NUTS 2) in Europe, we examine the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the mortality inequalities between regions changed between 2020 and 2022. We show that over the three years of the pandemic, not only did the level of excess mortality rate change considerably, but also its geographical distribution. Focusing on life expectancy as a summary measure of mortality conditions, we find that the variance of regional life expectancy increased sharply in 2021. This was due to a much higher-than-average excess mortality in regions with lower pre-pandemic life expectancy. While the life expectancy inequality has returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, the observed life expectancy in almost all regions is far below that expected without the pandemic.  

Regional diversification and labour market upgrading: Local access to skill-related high-income jobs helps workers escaping low-wage employment



This paper investigates how the evolution of local labour market structure enables or constrains workers as regards escaping low-wage jobs. Drawing on the network-based approach of evolutionary economic geography, we employ a detailed individual-level panel dataset to construct skill-relatedness networks for 72 functional labour market regions in Sweden. Subsequent fixed-effect panel regressions indicate that increasing density of skill-related high-income jobs within a region is conducive to low-wage workers moving to better-paid jobs, hence facilitating labour market upgrading through diversification. While metropolitan regions offer a premium for this relationship, it also holds for smaller regions, and across various worker characteristics.

The Great Rush



This paper provides a summary of the latest advancements in generative artificial intelligence using large language models over the past six months. The impact of this breakthrough remains uncertain, but it is evident that GPT is a General-Purpose Technology (GPT) that will significantly alter various aspects of our economy and society in ways that are yet to be fully comprehended. While it is essential for the government to regulate GPT technology, it is inevitable that the technology will continue to expand and evolve at a rapid pace. There is no doubt that every corner of the new world if it exists at all, will be covered by millions of forms of artificial intelligence. The taming of AIs and successful social and personal cooperation with domesticated AIs could ensure our survival and prosperity in that world. Whether or not AIs are capable and willing to cooperate will populate the new world is neither an individual nor a national matter. But how a country and its people fare in the new world is more so.


Társadalmi különbségek a gyermekek egészségi állapotában Magyarországon a 21. század második évtizedében



Tanulmányunk a magyarországi gyerekek egészségi állapotában fennálló társadalmi különbségeket vizsgálja a 2010-es években. Az elemzésekhez összegyűjtöttük és egységes statisztikai keretbe rendeztük azokat az adminisztratív és kérdőíves adatforrásokat, amelyek alapján feltárhatóak a gyerekek egészségi állapotában tapasztalható társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek és lehetséges okaik. Vizsgálatunk rámutat arra, hogy a gyermekek egészsége milyen nagy mértékben függ össze azzal, hogy milyen társadalmi közegbe születtek, hogy milyen életkörülmények és jövedelmi viszonyok között élnek, illetve hogy milyen viselkedési sajátosságokkal rendelkeznek ők maguk és a szüleik.

A társadalmi-területi változók szerepe a COVID-19-halálozás regionális egyenlőtlenségeiben Magyarországon



Magyarország egyike volt a világjárvány által leginkább érintett országoknak a regisztrált COVID-19-halálozás tekintetében. Kutatásunk alapvető célja egyrészt a koronavírushoz köthető halálozás földrajzi eloszlásának bemutatása, másrészt az ennek hátterében álló társadalmi-gazdasági változók szerepének feltárása. A legkisebb négyzetek módszerére (OLS) és térbeli regressziós elemzésre épülő statisztikai vizsgálatainkat járási szinten végeztük el (175 járás) a járvány magyarországi megjelenése és 2022. január 31.-e közötti időszakra vonatkozóan. Azt találtuk, hogy elsősorban ott volt magasabb népességarányosan a regisztrált COVID-19-halálozás, ahol nagyobb volt az időskorú lakosság aránya, illetve a pandémia előtt gyakoribb volt a légzőszervi megbetegedéshez köthető halálozás. Azokban a járásokban, ahol a népesség nagyobb hányada rendelkezett felsőfokú végzettséggel, általában alacsonyabb volt a koronavírus okozta halálozási arány. Ugyanakkor a szakirodalmi előzmények többségével ellentétben az egészségügyi ellátáshoz való hozzáféréssel kapcsolatos változók nem mutattak szignifikáns összefüggést a járási szintű regisztrált COVID-19-halálozással. Ezen túlmenően eredményeink azt is alátámasztották, hogy a COVID-19-halálozás alakulásában a térbeliség jelentős magyarázótényezőként jelent meg. A térbeli regressziós elemzés általánosságban rámutatott arra, hogy a kevésbé fejlett járásokban vagy a belső perifériás területeken magasabb volt a COVID-19-megbetegedés okozta halálozás, míg ennek éppen az ellenkezője volt megfigyelhető a fejlettebb járásokban (például a főváros agglomerációjában). Kutatási eredményeink egyrészt hozzájárulnak a hazai COVID-19-halálozás társadalmi-területi egyenlőtlenségeire vonatkozó ismeretek bővítéséhez, ugyanakkor fontos hangsúlyozni, hogy szükség van további vizsgálatokra az összefüggések és egymásra hatások alaposabb megismeréséhez.

Which Sectors Go On When There Is a Sudden Stop? An Empirical Analysis



This paper analyzes the dynamics of sectoral Real Gross Value Added (RGVA) around sudden stops in foreign capital inflows. We identify sudden stop episodes statistically from changes in gross capital inflows from the financial account, and use an event study methodology to compare RGVA before and after the start of sudden stops. In the baseline specification, we estimate changes in the growth rate of sectoral RGVA during sudden stops and in the few quarters following them. In an additional exercise, we analyze deviations from the sectors' long-run growth path. Our findings indicate that: (i) tradable sectors, especially manufacturing, face larger damages during sudden stops than nontradable sectors, (ii) but they also lead the recovery after recessions that accompany sudden stops on impact, partly due to the fact that they benefit from the depreciation of the domestic currency that occurs during sudden stops, (iii) construction and professional services are the most seriously hurt nontradable sectors during sudden stops, while information and communication, and financial services grow slower even in the aftermath of the events than before their onset. However, this slowdown only constitutes a return to their long-run sectoral growth paths. Overall, our results suggest a prolonged reallocation of economic activity away from service sectors, towards the production of goods. This is consistent with a traditional view of the role of tradable and nontradable sectors in a sudden stop episode.


The Effect of Air Pollution on Fertility Outcomes in Europe



This paper studies the effect of ambient air pollution on the number of births in the European Union. We collect air pollution data with web scraping technique and utilize variations in wind, temperature, number of heating, and cooling days as instrumental variables. There are 657 NUTS 3 regions included in the regressions, each with 2 to 6 years of observations between 2015 and 2020. Our results show that an increase in the levels of PM2.5 - PM10 pollution concentration by 1 μg/m3 (appr. 5-10%) would result in a 9% drop in the number of births next year. CO pollution levels also have a significant although smaller effect. If CO pollution concentration increases by 1 mg/m3 (appr. 15%) the number of births next year will fall by about 1%. In the heterogeneity analysis, we find that air pollution is more harmful to fertility in countries with already high pollution levels and lower GDP. This latter suggests that healthcare spending and the general level of living standard could be factors that moderate the negative consequences of ambient air pollution. To our knowledge, this is the first article to study the fertility effects of air pollution using an extended number of countries and years and at the same time including more than one air pollutant. As a result, our results have strong external validity. A remarkable novelty of our study compared to the previous literature is that after taking into account the effect of PM2.5 - PM10 and CO, the rest of the pollutants have much less role in shaping fertility outcomes compared to the findings of the previous literature. This difference is a result of the new method of this study, which examines the pollutants simultaneously instead of examining only one or a few at a time. This result can be important for environmental policies, where the limited resources should target pollution types that have the most detrimental effect on human fertility and health.


Valentiny Pál • Antal-Pomázi Krisztina • Berezvai Zombor • Nagy Csongor István

A KRTK Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézetének verseny- és ágazati szabályozás kérdéskörével foglalkozó tizennegyedik, magyar nyelvű évkönyve bemutatja a közgazdaságtan szerepét a versenyhivatali döntéshozatalban, valamint elemzi az Európai Unió és a magyar versenyjog viszonyát. Több tanulmány foglalkozik a verseny, a kutatás és az innováció összefüggéseivel. A kötet olvasói megismerkedhetnek továbbá a gázpiacok helyzetével és szabályozásával, valamint a digitális piacok és a konvergens hírközlési szolgáltatók szabályozásának problémáival.


CÍMNEGYED TARTALOM ELŐSZÓ I. Áttekintés • MÚLT, JELEN, JÖVŐ AZ ÁGAZATI ÉS VERSENYSZABÁLYOZÁSBAN Antal-Pomázi Krisztina - Valentiny Pál • Közgazdaságtan a versenyhivatalokban Nagy Csongor István • Recepció és mintakövetés a magyar versenyjogban: valóban fenntartás nélkül átvehetők az uniós versenyjog megoldásai? II. Betekintés • VERSENY, KUTATÁS, INNOVÁCIÓ Varju Márton • Felelős kutatás és innováció: a társadalmi részvétel és befolyásolási lehetőségei a magyar kutatás- és innovációs szabályozásban Berezvai Zombor • Verseny és komplementaritás az innovatív mikromobilitási és a hagyományos közlekedési szolgáltatások között Valentiny Pál • Mennyire innovatívak a Big Tech vállalatok? Börzsönyi Blanka - Orosz Fanni - Virág Péter • A fúziókontroll és a fúziókontrollszerű hatósági bejelentési eljárások legfrissebb irányai és hatásai az M&A-ügyletekre III. Körbetekintés • A HÁLÓZATOS SZOLGÁLTATÁSOK PIACA ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁSA Fejes Gábor - Marosi Zoltán • Versenyjog és versenyszabályozás a földgázpiacon Kotek Péter - Selei Adrienn - Takácsné Tóth Borbála • Oroszország gázpiaci erejének vizsgálata Európában a közös EU-stratégia tükrében Gönczöl Tünde - Teleki Lóránt • A digitális kapuőrök az ex ante szabályozás, a versenyjog és az adatvédelem kereszttüzében Firniksz Judit - Csömör Magdolna - Ruzsa Róbert • Ki fizeti a révészt? A konvergens hírközlési szolgáltatók az átalakuló szabályozási ökoszisztémában ABSTRACTS A SZERZŐKRŐL

Keresetek, valorizáció és nyugdíjak: koncepcionális kérdések és statisztikai problémák



Magyarországon az elmúlt évtizedben az átlagos induló nyugdíjak lényegesen gyorsabban emelkedtek, mint az átlagnyugdíjak. Ehhez több tényező is hozzájárult, amelyek közül kitüntetett jelentősége van a valorizáció módszerérének és hivatalos keresetstatisztikának; írásunk erre a két tényezőre összpontosít. A tb-kezdőnyugdíjak meghatározásakor a legtöbb országban több évtizedes keresetpályát vesznek alapul, és az egyes évek nominális kereseteit az országos keresetemelkedés mértékével hozzák közös nevezőre: valorizálják. Magyarországon is ezt a módszert alkalmazzák. A tanulmányban ismertetett összehasonlításokból kitűnik, hogy 2013 és 2021 között a hivatalos nettó bérindex jelentősen túlbecsülhette az országos nettó átlagkeresetek emelkedését, ezáltal a kezdőnyugdíjak jobban nőhettek az indokoltnál. A tanulmány e kérdéskör több vonatkozását, köztük azt vizsgálja, hogy hihető-e az átlagnyugdíj/nettó bér arányának jelentős csökkenése, és kitér arra, hogy ilyen helyzetben milyen dilemmákkal szembesülnek a nyugdíjrendszerért felelős döntéshozók.

Társadalmi különbségek a magyarországi gyerekek fogainak állapotában és egészségmagatartásában



Tanulmányunk a magyarországi kisgyermekek és iskolások fogorvosi látogatásainak, a tejfogak és a maradó fogak állapotának, a fontosabb kezeléseknek, a közfinanszírozott ellátások elérhetőségének és a fogak állapotát befolyásoló egészségmagatartási jellemzőknek a társadalmi egyenlőtlenségeit vizsgál-ja. Ehhez felhasználunk minden olyan elérhető adminisztratív és kérdőíves adatforrást, melyeknek segítségével képet adhatunk a témáról. Rámutatunk arra, hogy már 2-3 éves korban jelentős társadalmi különbségek állnak fent mind a fogak állapota, mind a fogorvosi látogatások, mind pedig az egészségmagatartások tekintetében, és mindezek kiegészülnek a közfinanszírozott fogorvosi ellátások elérhetőségében mutatkozó szakadékszerű társadalmi különbségekkel. A kisgyermekkori különbségek az életkor előrehaladtával általában csak tovább nőnek. Tanulmányunkat a fogak állapotában fennálló társadalmi egyenlőtlenségek csökkentésére irányuló egészség- és társadalompolitikai javaslatokkal zárjuk.

The effect of funding liquidity regulation and ESG promotion on market liquidity



Liquidity is a key consideration in financial markets, especially in times of financial crises.  For this reason, regulatory attention to and measures in this field have been on the rise for the past years. Based on practical experience, regulations aiming at ensuring funding liquidity or, in general, reducing certain risky positions have the side effect of reducing market liquidity. To understand this effect, we extend a standard general equilibrium model with transaction costs of trading, endogenous market liquidity, and the modeling of regulation. We prove that funding liquidity regulation or divesting bad ESG assets reduces market liquidity.

Unexpected Inflation and Public Pensions: The Case of Hungary



Public pensions are indexed to prices or wages or to their combinations; therefore, the impact of inflation on the real value of benefits can often be neglected, especially under indexation to prices. At high and accelerating/decelerating inflation like currently prevailing in Hungary, however, this is not the case. (i) With fast inflation of basic necessities, proportional indexation of benefits in progress devalues the lowest benefits, paying for above-the-average consumption share of these goods.  (ii) Annual, lumpy raises in these benefits imply too high  intra-year drop in the real value of benefits. (iii) With accelerating inflation, the declining real value of delayed initial benefits may incite immediate retirement. (iv) With unindexed parameter values (like progressivity bending points), the initial benefits' structure unintentionally changes.

Heterogeneous wage structure effects: a partial European East-West comparison



We estimate heterogeneous wage structure effects for country-pairs within the EU by the Causal Forest algorithm, then identify groups of workers with the highest and lowest discrepancies in terms of wage differentials. We find that, in the East-West comparison, age is the most consistently differentiating factor. People over 40 are most adversely treated in the East relative to the West, and especially those who have no tertiary education and work in small or medium-sized enterprises.

Where is the pain the most acute? The market segments particularly affected by gender wage discrimination in Hungary



The gender earnings gap can be attributed either to the different distribution of males and females across jobs or to within job biases in favour of men. The latter is frequently called the wage structure effect, and it may be interpreted as wage discrimination against women. In this paper we focus on this second source of the gap. In particular, we study the heterogeneity of the wage structure effect by looking for the main drivers of it. On Hungarian matched employer-employee data we identify those firm-worker profiles that exhibit extremely high gender wage differentials We apply the Causal Forest methodology, borrowed from the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) literature, which has been utilized in several observational studies, recently. Our findings show that those firms that pay relatively high wages tend to discriminate against women most strongly, and especially with respect to women who have spent a longer time in the same firm. But this tendency is moderated by regional effects; where demand side competition is strong the wage structure effect tends to be smaller. These findings are, by and large, in accordance with the view that relative bargaining power is relevant for wage-setting, or, alternatively, firms practice third degree wage discrimination.

Social Innovation: Definitions and models reconsidered



Social innovation (SI) has become a widely used buzzword in recent years. It is portrayed as a solution – almost a panacea – to many different types of societal and environmental problems. We can also perceive this development as a strong impetus to clarify its meaning, the actors involved in SI processes, their objectives, activities and interactions, as well as SI processes. Hence, this paper critically reconsiders the plethora of SI definitions, as well as recent SI models. As our main results, we propose a new, nominal definition and then develop a new model of SI, inspired by the multi-channel interactive learning model of business innovations. The new definition and model can offer a pertinent conceptual framework for SI policy-makers, policy analysts, as well as practitioners when devising, implementing or assessing SI.

Innovation Studies, Social Innovation, and Sustainability Transitions Research: From mutual ignorance towards an integrative perspective?



Goal-oriented transformative change processes – that is, system-transforming processes that are guided by the ambition to resolve current or expected future societal challenges of various kinds – can only start once possible goals are considered by key stakeholders and the relevant actors are committed to act. Hence, there is a need for widening the scope of the current, partial conceptual models to consider the co-evolutionary interactions between technology, economy, and society to understand these changes. This claim is based on our review of Innovation Studies, Social Innovation research, and Sustainability Transitions research. The paper discusses the key conceptual elements of each strand; offers a definition of goal-oriented transformative change and building blocks for a new, integrative framework to analyse it; proposes directions for future research and draw tentative governance and policy implications.

The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities



As the world economy operates more and more through computerised transactions, new possibilities for intertwining criminal and lawful economic activities open up, as well as new opportunities for law enforcement agencies to fight crime. Considering the tremendous and potentially devastating damages caused by criminal economic activities, the issue should be high on the agenda of policy-makers, including R&I policy-makers. The race between criminal actors and the state trying to protect companies and citizens will be a permanent one. The paper provides and overview of trends and drivers in these domains, highlighting potential disruptions. It also presents four scenarios with a time horizon of 2040 to explore the role of R&I activities and regulations in shaping the possibilities for the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities and derive policy implications. The complex nature of criminal economic activities, their detection, investigation, and prosecution are related to research and innovation in at least three areas. First, research in, and the development and improvement of, information and communication technologies necessary to monitor, track and analyse criminal activities. Second, regulatory techniques for preventing innovators from i) moving outside the sphere of lawful activities; ii) moving too far and entering a grey zone where regulation is missing; and iii) settling on clear-cut criminal behaviour. Third, research in, and the development and improvement of, forensic techniques of reconstructing what actually happened, and thus attributing responsibility for crime.

Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks



This paper studies the effects of employment shocks on births and induced abortions. We are the first to show that abortions play a role in fertility responses to job displacement. Furthermore, we document precautionary fertility behavior: the anticipatory response of women to expected labor market shocks. Using individual-level administrative data from Hungary, we look at firm closures and mass layoffs as conditionally exogenous employment shocks in an event study design. After establishing that both shocks have a similarly large and persistent negative effect on employment and wages, we show that women already react to the anticipation of these shocks, and their fertility responses differ substantially for firm closures and mass layoffs. We find that abortions increase by 88% in the year before firm closures, while the number of births is not affected. Mass layoffs have no significant effect on abortions in the preceding year but increase the number of births by 44%. Mass layoffs and firm closures differ in one crucial aspect: pregnant women cannot be laid off until the firm exists, but no such dismissal protection is available in the case of firm closures.  Thus, when dismissal protection is available, anticipated employment shocks increase the number of live births, whereas when it is not, they increase the number of abortions. These results suggest that dismissal protection has the potential to support women to keep pregnancies at times of economic shocks.

Kontrollhely Magyarországon – egy reprezentatív felmérés eredményei



Tanulmányunkban bemutatjuk a kontrollhely fogalmát, ezt a közgazdaságtanban egyre gyakrabban kutatott nem-kognitív képességet. Ezután áttekintjük a kontrollhely közgazdaságtani irodalmát, és bemutatjuk, hogy akik úgy gondolják, maguk irányítják az életüket, sikeresebbek az élet számos területén. Ezt követően egy reprezentatív magyar felmérés adatait vizsgáljuk meg, amelyen többnyire viszontlátjuk a szakirodalom által feltárt összefüggéseket. A kontrollhely a válaszadók 20-30-as éveiben egyre belsőbbé válik, majd 40 éves kor után ismét egyre külsőbb lesz. A mintánkban a férfiak inkább belső kontrollosak, mint a nők, valamint a belsőbb kontrollhely magasabb végzettséggel és magasabb jövedelemmel jár együtt. Ugyanakkor nem találunk szignifikáns összefüggést a kontrollhely és a munkaerőpiaci státusz között. Azt találjuk, hogy a belső kontrollosok szignifikánsan több megtakarítást és kevesebb tartozást halmoznak fel.

Gelei Anna története

Laki Mihály

Gelei Anna 1962-1991-ben volt az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézet munkatársa. A vele készült életút interjúból Az érdeklődő (fiatal és öreg) olvasó nemcsak az elődök – egy feltörekvő zsidó polgári család – sorsát, majd 1944–1945-ben szinte teljes kiirtását, de a túlélő kiskamasz Panni és öccse szerencsés túlélése történetét is megismerheti. Már itt megjelennek Panni életvezetési és jellembeli erényei: a bátorság, a tudásvágy, a szociális érzékenység és a gyors döntésképesség. Alig 14 évesen falujáró aktivista, fiatal értelmiségiek hallgatója-csodálója. Nagy csalódás – elvesztegetett idő – a Marx Károly Közgazdaságtudományi Egyetemen eltöltött négy év. Az ott felhalmozódó tudáshiányt –a Rákosi-rendszerbeli Központi Statisztikai Hivatalban (könyvtárában, fakultatív tanfolyamain) tudta részben pótolni. Itt élte át cselekvő résztvevőként az 1956-os forradalmat és azt követő ellenállást, az elnyomás rendszerének összeomlását, majd az életét és karrierjét megnyomorító visszaépülését. Megismerhetjük a rendszerhez hű munkahelyi vezetőknek a forradalom utáni értelmiségi ellenállásban részt vevő, nem marxista, pártonkívüli Pannit támogató gesztusairól. Ez magyarázza, hogy a Közgazdaságtudományi Intézet munkatársa lett, majd Ford-ösztöndíjasként az Egyesült Államokban elsajátíthatta a standard nyugati tudományos kutatás módszereit és szemléletét. Már ekkor kutatta a fejlődő országok felzárkózásának feltételeit, ezt folytatta a „terepen”, Peruban, ahol egyetemi oktatóként egyszerre tanulta és tanította a modern makroökonómiát. Kényszerű hazatérése után megvédte kandidátusi értekezését, két fontos könyve jelent meg, ám már nem érezte jól magát a Közgazdaságtudományi Intézetben, s az 1989-es rendszerváltozás után tanácsadó céget alapított, elhagyta a tudományos pályát.

An Axiomatization of the Pairwise Netting Proportional Rule in Financial Networks



We consider financial networks where agents are linked to each other via mutual liabilities. In case of bankruptcy, there are potentially many bankruptcy rules, ways to distribute the assets of a bankrupt agent over the other agents. One common approach is to first apply pairwise netting of agents that have mutual liabilities and next use the proportional rule to determine the payments on the basis of the net liabilities. We refer to this as the pairwise netting proportional rule. The pairwise netting proportional rule satisfies the basic requirements of claims boundedness, limited liability, priority of creditors, and continuity. It also satisfies the desirable properties of net impartiality, an agent that has two creditors with the same net claims pays the same amount to both creditors on top of pairwise netting, and invariance to mitosis, an agent that splits into a number of identical agents is not affecting the payments of the other agents. We demonstrate that if net impartiality and invariance to mitosis, together with the basic requirements, are regarded as imperative properties, then payments should be determined by the pairwise netting proportional rule.

Peer Effects on Academic Self-concept: A Large Randomized Field Experiment



Social theories posit that peers affect students’ academic self-concept (ASC). Most prominently, Big-Fish-Little-Pond, invidious comparison, and relative deprivation theories predict that exposure to academically stronger peers decreases students’ ASC, and exposure to academically weaker peers increases students’ ASC. These propositions have not yet been tested experimentally. We executed a large and pre-registered field experiment that randomized students to deskmates within 195 classrooms of 41 schools (N = 3,022). Our primary experimental analysis found no evidence of an effect of peer achievement on ASC in either direction. Exploratory analyses hinted at a subject-specific deskmate effect on ASC in verbal skills, and that sitting next to a lower-achieving boy increased girls’ ASC (but not that sitting next to a higher-achieving boy decreased girls’ ASC). Critically, however, none of these group-specific results held up to even modest corrections for multiple hypothesis testing. Contrary to theory, our randomized field experiment thus provides no evidence for an effect of peer achievement on students’ ASC.


Közelkép: „Adminisztratív adatok a gyakorlatban”

Szabó-Morvai Ágnes - Lengyel Balázs

A Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet által kiadott „Munkaerőpiaci Tükör” című évkönyv-sorozat legfrissebb kötetének tanulmányai a hazai közadatok, a kormányzati szervek által gyűjtött adminisztratív adatok hasznosításáról szólnak. A tanulmányok egyik alapját az az egyedülállóan gazdag adminisztratív adatbázis jelenti, amelyet a Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont (KRTK) Adatbankja állított össze.


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Digitalization against the shadow economy: evidence on the role of company size



Online cash registers (OCRs) are important tools for reducing the size of the shadow economy. This paper analyzes the impact on reported turnover and tax liability of introducing OCRs in Hungary using a fixed-effects panel and event study model. We identify strong size-related heterogeneity in the retail and the accommodation and food services sectors: smaller companies increased their reported turnover more than larger ones. Since large companies pay the dominant part of value-added tax, the effects on the payment of this tax were mitigated. We find significant spillover effects in both sectors, which are slightly stronger among larger companies.

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Payroll Taxes



We study the impact of a large payroll tax cut for older workers in Hungary. Motivated by the predictions of a standard equilibrium job search model, we examine the heterogeneous impact of the policy. Employment increases most at low-productivity firms offering low-wage jobs, which tend to hire from unemployment, while the effects are more muted for high-productivity firms offering high-wage jobs. At the same time, wages only increase at high-productivity firms. These results point to important heterogeneity in the incidence of payroll tax cuts across firms and highlight that payroll taxes have a significant impact on the composition of jobs in the labor market.


Patkós Anna és Boza István

70 ÉVES KÖLLŐ JÁNOS - KÖSZÖNTŐK ÉS TANULMÁNYOK   A kötetet összeállította: Boza István Olvasószerkesztő: Patkós Anna és Boza István Borítóterv: Ilyés Virág és Boza István Kötetterv és nyomdai előkészítés: Boza István és Ilyés Virág

A job trial subsidy for youth: cheap labour or a screening device?



This paper evaluates a 90-day hiring subsidy designed for young jobseekers aged below 25, introduced in Hungary in 2015 as part of the Youth Guarantee programme. The subsidy covers the total wage cost with no obligation to retain the new hire when the subsidy expires. The analysis is based on linked administrative data taken from the unemployment register, cognitive skills measured at age 15, health and social security records. The causal impact of the subsidy on subsequent employment is identified in comparison to participants of a large-scale public works programme, using propensity score matching with exceptionally rich controls. The estimates indicate significant positive effects: participants spent 14-20 days more in employment within six months after the programme ended on the whole sample. The impact is weaker on the 12-month horizon. We find that the subsidy works well as a screening device: the programme has the highest impact on those workers who have very low levels of schooling (eight years of primary school or less), but demonstrated high skill levels on standardised competence tests. One potential explanation is that employers tend to retain those with better cognitive skills, irrespective of their formal qualifications. We also find some indication that the subsidy is (mis)used by some employers to hire short term, seasonal workers.

Vállalkozóvá váló munkanélküliek jellemzői



Jelen tanulmányban azt vizsgáltuk, hogy a 2014-2015 között legalább egy napig regisztrált munkanélküliek milyen tulajdonságok mentén vesznek részt a vállalkozóvá válást elősegítő programokban Magyarországon. Az adatok azt mutatják, hogy némileg hátrányosabb helyzetűek azok a munkanélküliek, akik támogatást vettek igénybe a vállalkozásuk beindításához - magasabb a pályakezdők, nők, alacsonyabb a felsőfokú végzettségűek aránya, kisebb az átlagos járadék átlaga. Eredményeink szerint nagyon erős az iskolai végzettség, valamint az értelmiségi foglalkozás, korábbi vezetői pozíció összefüggése a vállalkozóvá válás és a támogató programban való részvétel esélyeivel is. Tehát támogató programmal és támogató program nélküli is a felsőfokú végzettséggel rendelkezők, szaktudással bírók esélyei a legnagyobbak a vállalkozóvá válásra, ugyanakkor ők azok is, akik ehhez nagyobb eséllyel élnek támogatással. Egyértelműen látszik az is, hogy mivel az EU támogatások miatt a konvergencia régiókban több ilyen képzéssel, mentorálással és alaptőke-biztosítással kombinált komplex program futott, mindenütt nagyobb volt az esélye a támogatásba kerülésnek, mint Közép-Magyarországon, ám a program térbeli eloszlása meglehetősen egyenlőtlen.

The impact of childcare on maternal employment



This paper examines the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment in Hungary based on 2016 Microcensus data. We exploit the exogenous variation in access to childcare due to informal admission practices based on the date of birth, to identify the effect of childcare availability on maternal employment and the children’s enrolment. We find that on average, expanding the coverage of nurseries to the same level as kindergartens would lead to around 7.3 percentage points higher maternal employment, an around 25% higher employment rate compared to the baseline of mothers with a child aged 2-2.5 years. At the same time, the decomposition of the link between childcare availability and employment shows that enrolment would increase by 17.7 percentage points due to the higher coverage, close to 40% compared to the baseline. Enrolment in childcare would increase maternal employment probability by around 41 percentage points, around two-thirds of the employment rate of mothers. We also examine the heterogeneities of the effect along demographic characteristics using causal forests, and the economic cycle by expanding the analysis to the 2011 Census. We find that in 2016 the childcare availability effect is higher for mothers with 3 children, living in villages, or municipalities without nurseries. The employment effect is lower in the 2011 Census, while the effect on enrolment in formal childcare remains similar, suggesting the importance of weaker labour demand in 2011.

The gender gap in top jobs – the role of overconfidence



There is a large gender gap in the probability of being in a “top job” in mid-career. Top jobs bring higher earnings, and also have more job security and better career trajectories. Recent literature has raised the possibility that some of this gap may be attributable to women not “leaning in” while men are more overconfident in their abilities. We use longitudinal data from childhood into mid-career and construct a measure of overconfidence using multiple measures of objective cognitive ability and subjective estimated ability. Our measure confirms previous findings that men are more overconfident than women. We then use linear regression and decomposition techniques to account for the gender gap in top jobs including our measure of overconfidence. Our results show that men being more overconfident explains 5-11 percent of the gender gap in top job employment. This indicates that while overconfidence matters for gender inequality in the labor market and has implications for how firms recruit and promote workers, other individual, structural, and societal factors play a larger role.

No evidence of direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice—Evidence from Hungary



This paper investigates direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice in the stratified and selective Hungarian educational system and makes two contributions to the literature. First, it tests both peer-contrasting and peer-conforming influences by considering peers’ GPA and endogenous educational choices. Second, the paper investigates mechanisms behind peer-conforming educational choices (such as peers’ normative pressure and information potential), with a focus on two structurally different peer relationships: self-selected friends and randomly assigned deskmates. The study uses a unique dataset that merges administrative data with randomized field experiment data. The results show no evidence of peer influence, after accounting for unobserved classroom homogeneity. Within the classroom, peers’ ability did not decrease, and peers’ ambitious endogenous educational choices did not increase students’ own choice of the academic upper-secondary track. Concerning the mechanisms of peer-conforming educational choices, the results reveal that peers’ informational potential (but not their normative pressure) might be the mechanism that drives students to conform to peers’ choices. This paper interprets the absence of peer influence in upper-secondary track choices as evidence that peer influence cannot derail students’ socially determined educational choices.

Longevity gap, indexation and age-specific average pensions



Studying the age-dimension of the probability distribution of pensions while assuming steadily rising real wages and time-invariant benefit-rules, two factors play important roles: (i) the weight of the wages in indexation of benefits in progress; (ii) the longevity gap. Factor (i) acts against relative depreciation of older benefits, while factor (ii) raises the share of higher benefits among older cohorts. Using an example and a model we show how the shape of the average benefit--age-curve depends on the relation between these two factors.

Business transactions and ownership ties between firms



In this study we investigate the creation and persistence of interfirm ties in a large-scale business transaction network. Transaction ties, firms buying or selling products or services can be the outcome of pure business motivations, but the social connections of owners or the geographical location of companies may also influence their development. We build the transaction and the ownership networks of firms in Hungary for 2016 and 2017 from two administrative datasets and identify multi-layer network motifs to predict the creation and persistence of business transactions. We show that direct or indirect relationships in this two-layered network contribute to both the creation and persistence of business transaction ties. We find a positive, but smaller impact of geographic proximity and industrial similarity of firms. For our estimations, we utilize loglinear models and emphasize their efficiency in predicting links in such large networks. We contribute to the literature by illustrating business connection patterns in a nationwide multilayer interfirm network.

A magyar adórendszer újraelosztási hatásai



A tanulmány a magyar egykulcsos adóreform, illetve a családi adó- és járulékkedvezmény jövedelem-újraelosztási hatásait vizsgálja. Tanulmányunk részletesen vizsgálja a családi kedvezmények hatásait, illetve – a 2020-as adminisztratív adatok használatának köszönhetően – a korábbi becsléseknél pontosabb képet ad az egykulcsos adóreform hatásairól is. Az adóreform keretében 2011 és 2013 között több lépésben kivezették a sávos adózást és az adójóváírást, így a munkajövedelmet egységesen 16 százalék (2015-től 15 százalék) adó terheli, illetve lényegesen szélesítették a családi adóalap-kedvezményeket. Az új személyi jövedelemadórendszer a magas jövedelműeknek, illetve a sokgyermekeseknek kedvez, míg fő vesztesei az alacsony jövedelmű és/vagy gyermektelen, illetve egy gyermeket nevelő munkavállalók. Eredményeink szerint, noha a gyermekek után igénybe vehető adó- és járulékkedvezmények jövedelemhez viszonyított aránya a jövedelmi szint emelkedésével csökken, összességében minimálisan térítik el az átlagos adóterhelés elosztását. Így az szja rendszer a kedvezményeket figyelembe véve is lényegében egykulcsosnak tekinthető, az adófizetők jövedelmi tizedeinek adózás előtti és utáni részesedése gyakorlatilag megegyezik. A családi adókedvezmény a magas jövedelmű sokgyerekeseknek kedvez az egygyerekes vagy szegényebb családokkal szemben. Legnagyobb nyertesei a legfelső jövedelmi tized három- vagy többgyermekes adófizetői: ez a 22 ezer adófizető, a gyerekkedvezményt igénylő összes adózó mindössze két százaléka kapja a teljes családi adókedvezmény 10 százalékát, a legalább három gyermek után igénybe vett kedvezmények csaknem harmadát.  

Take-Up and Labor Supply Responses to Disability Insurance Earnings Limits



In most disability insurance programs beneficiaries lose some or all of their benefits if they earn above an earnings threshold. While intended to screen out applicants with high remaining working capacity, earnings limits can also distort the labor supply of beneficiaries. We develop a simple framework to evaluate this trade-off. We use a reduction in the earnings limit in Hungary to examine screening and labor supply responses. We find that the policy changed selection into the program modestly but reduced labor supply significantly. Viewed through the lens of our model, these findings suggest that the earnings threshold should be higher.

Preventing (Panic) Bank Runs



Andolfatto et al. (2017) proposes a mechanism to eliminate bank runs that occur as a coordination problem among depositors (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983). Building on their work, we conduct a laboratory experiment where we offer depositors the possibility to relocate their funds to a priority account. We find evidence that the mechanism reduces not only bank runs that occur because of a coordination problem among depositors but also panic bank runs (Kiss et al., 2018) that occur when depositors can observe the action of others.

A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021

A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021 width= Budapest, 2022. Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás Hermann Zoltán Horn Dániel Hőnich Heléna Varga Júlia Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid Olvasószerkesztő: Székács István Copyright © Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2022. Borító © Vigyázó Zsófia, 2022  width=Technikai útmutató „A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021” című kiadványhoz Budapest, 2022. Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás Hermann Zoltán Hőnich Heléna Horn Dániel Varga Júlia Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid Copyright © Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2022 Borító © Vigyázó Zsófia, 2022 Szemelvények „A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021” című kiadványból width= Budapest, 2022. Szerkesztette: Varga Júlia A kötet szerzői Hajdu Tamás Hermann Zoltán Horn Dániel Hőnich Heléna Varga Júlia Kutatási asszisztens: Herskovits Dávid Olvasószerkesztő: Székács István Copyright © Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet, 2021 Borító © Vigyázó Zsófia, 2022 „A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021” című kiadvány a KRTK Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézetében kidolgozott, a magyar közoktatási rendszer jellemzőit adatokkal leíró jelzőszámrendszer negyedik kiadása, mely 2020-ig tartalmazza az indikátorok frissített értékeit. 2015-ben dolgoztuk a ki a Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézetben a közoktatási indikátorrendszert, azzal a céllal, hogy létrejöjjön Magyarországon egy rendszeres kiadvány, amely egyaránt alkalmas arra, hogy a szakpolitikai döntéshozók könnyen és pontosan tájékozódjanak a közoktatás aktuális állapotáról, illetve trendjeiről, és hogy az érdeklődő szakértő és nem szakértő közönség megismerje a magyar közoktatást jellemző legfontosabb mutatókat. Olyan indikátorokat alakítottunk ki, melyek amellett, hogy számszerűen leírják a jelenlegi helyzetet, lehetőséget adnak a mutatók ismételt megfigyelésére, mivel rendszeres adatgyűjtéseken alapulnak, melyek lehetővé teszik, hogy a kiadvány időközönként frissíthető, megjelentethető legyen. A mostani kiadás követi a korábbi kiadások  felépítését, de néhány új indikátort is tartalmaz, egy-két indikátort pedig elhagytunk a kiadványból, vagy azért mert nem álltak rendelkezésre az új adatok, vagy abból a célból, hogy az indikátorok száma kezelhető maradjon. A kiadványból  valamennyi indikátor adatai letölthetők a 2010 és 2020 közötti évekre, az adattáblákban az indikátorok értékeit esetenként olyan bontásokban is közöljük, melyek máshol nem hozzáférhetőek. Az előző kiadáshoz hasonlóan, a 2021. évi kiadványban az adattáblák már nem csak magyar, hanem angol nyelven is elérhetőek, a kiadvány tartalmaz egy angol nyelvű összefoglalóval és angol nyelvű tartalomjegyzéket is.  A kötetet - a korábbi kiadásokhoz hasonlóan - kiegészíti a „Technikai útmutató A közoktatás indikátorrendszere 2021 című kiadványhoz”, mely minden egyes indikátornak ismerteti számítási módját és az egyes indikátorokhoz felhasznált adatok pontos forrását.

Hogyan lesz az etnikai előítéletből foglalkoztatási diszkrimináció? A kisvállalatok szerepe



A kutatás hipotézise szerint az etnikai (esetünkben a romákkal szembeni) előítéletesség könnyebben vezet foglalkoztatási diszkriminációhoz olyan helyi munkaerőpiacokon, ahol a kisvállalatoknál dolgozók aránya magas. Az előfeltevést a 2011-es népszámlálás egyéni és járási szintű adatain és több kiegészítő forrás felhasználásával teszteljük. A foglalkoztatási esélyt becslő egyenletekbe a roma etnikai hovatartozás és számos kontrollváltozó mellett a kisvállalatok járáson belüli foglalkoztatási súlyát, valamint a Jobbik akkori támogatottságát mérő indikátorokat vonunk be. Kimutatjuk, hogy ez utóbbi szoros kapcsolatban állt a helyi népesség erősen előítéletes tagjainak részarányával, továbbá, hogy a kisvállalatok kisebb arányban foglalkoztatnak romákat, különösen akkor, ha a munkakör csapatmunkát, vagy a fogyasztókkal való kapcsolatot feltételez. A férfiaknál a roma-nem roma foglalkoztatási rés az átlagosnál 20-40 százalékkal szélesebb erős Jobbik-támogatottság és sok kisvállalat esetén. A roma nők kisebb arányban dolgoznak a diszkriminációnak erősen kitett helyeken, foglalkoztatásukra erősebben hatnak a kínálati döntéseik, esetükben a vizsgált keresleti oldali összefüggés sokkal gyengébb.

Idő és pénz a gyereknevelésben Magyarországon, 1993-2010



Tanulmányunk a KSH időmérleg-felméréseinek és háztartási költségvetési adatfelvételeinek segítségével vizsgálja a gyermekes családok körében tapasztalható időfelhasználási és kiadási mintázatok jellegzetes társadalmi különbségeit és azok időbeli alakulását. Eredményeink szerint a magasabb iskolai végzettségű családok többet költenek készségfejlesztő eszközökre és szolgáltatásokra, mint az alacsony iskolázottságú szülőkkel rendelkező családok. Emellett a magasabb iskolai végzettségű anyák és apák több időt is fordítanak gyermekgondozásra és a gyermekeik készségeit közvetlenül vagy közvetve fejlesztő tevékenységekre, mint az alacsonyabb iskolázottságú szülők. A különbségek igen jelentősek. A felsőfokú végzettségű anyával és apával rendelkező kétgyermekes családok éves szinten átlagosan 350 órával többet töltenek gyermekgondozási tevékenységgel és 400 ezer forinttal többet költenek készségfejlesztő kiadásokra, mint a két középfokú végzettségű szülővel rendelkező családok. A keresztmetszeti különbségek mellett jelentős időbeli változásokat is látunk. A rendszerváltás utáni két évtizedben a gyermekekre fordított időben és készségfejlesztő kiadásokban mért társadalmi különbségek növekedtek.

Financial subsidies and the shortage of primary care physicians



The shortage of primary care physicians is a global healthcare problem, especially in rural areas. In this paper, we analyse the choice of location of primary care physicians and estimate the causal effect of financial incentives on the supply of primary care physicians in underserved areas. Our analysis is based on a quasi-experimental setting from Hungary. After 2015, primary care physicians could receive financial subsidy if they filled such a primary care position which has been vacant for at least a year, the amount of the subsidy increasing with the duration of the vacancy. Our results suggest that targeted financial incentives can help fill long-time vacant primary care positions but cannot completely eliminate primary care shortages. We also provide evidence on the role of demographic characteristics and individual preferences in the location choice of primary care physicians.

Longevity gap and pension contribution cap



A basic function of public pension systems is to guarantee a satisfactory old-age income for short-sighted low earners. In proportional (i.e., earnings-related) systems, this requires a sufficiently high contribution rate. At the same time, there should be a cap on the pension contribution base to leave sufficient room for the efficient private savings of prudent high earners. Taking into account the dependence of life expectancy on the earnings (figuratively called longevity gap), a well-chosen cap has an additional advantage: it limits the unintended income redistribution from the short-lived to the long-lived. Our strongly stylized model is able to illustrate numerically the impact of the contribution rate and of the cap on the social welfare and the unintended income redistribution.

Centralized Clearing Mechanisms in Financial Networks: A Programming Approach



We consider financial networks where agents are linked to each other with financial contracts. A centralized clearing mechanism collects the initial endowments, the liabilities and the division rules of the agents and determines the payments to be made. A division rule specifies how the assets of the agents should be rationed, the four most common ones being the proportional, the priority, the constrained equal awards, and the constrained equal losses division rules. Since payments made depend on payments received, we are looking for solutions to a system of equations. The set of solutions is known to have a lattice structure, leading to the existence of a least and a greatest clearing payment matrix. Previous research has shown how decentralized clearing selects the least clearing payment matrix. We present a centralized approach towards clearing in order to select the greatest clearing payment matrix. To do so, we formulate the determination of the greatest clearing payment matrix as a programming problem. When agents use proportional division rules, this programming problem corresponds to a linear programming problem. We show that for the other common division rules, it can be written as an integer linear programming problem.

Understanding hesitancy with revealed preferences across COVID-19 vaccine types



Many countries have secured larger quantities of COVID-19 vaccines than their populace is willing to take. This abundance and variety of vaccines created a historical moment to understand vaccine hesitancy better. Never before were more types of vaccines available for an illness and the intensity of vaccine-related public discourse is unprecedented. Yet, the heterogeneity of hesitancy by vaccine types in certain segments of society has been neglected so far, even though factual or believed vaccine characteristics and patient attributes are known to influence acceptance. In this paper, we address this problem by analysing acceptance and assessment of five vaccine types using information collected with a nationally representative survey (N=1000) at the end of the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary, where a unique portfolio of vaccines were available to the public in large quantities. Our special case enables us to quantify revealed preferences across vaccine types since one could evaluate a vaccine unacceptable and even could reject an assigned vaccine to wait for another type. We find that the source of information that respondents trust characterizes their attitudes towards vaccine types differently and leads to divergent vaccine hesitancy. Believers of conspiracy theories were significantly more likely to evaluate the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) unacceptable while those who follow the advice of politicians evaluate vector-based (AstraZeneca and Sputnik) or whole-virus vaccines (Sinopharm) acceptable with higher likelihood. We illustrate that the rejection of non-desired and re-selection of preferred vaccines fragments the population by the mRNA versus other type of vaccines while it generally improves the assessment of the received vaccine. These results highlight that greater variance of available vaccine types and individual free choice are desirable conditions that can widen the acceptance of vaccines in societies.

The impact of spatial clustering of occupation on commuting time and employment status



In this study we reveal the impact of spatial clustering of occupations on the probability of employment and commuting time, with particular emphasis on differences between genders and household types. Based on Hungarian 2011 census data our research confirmed previous results of some USA studies according to which women work in less spatially clustered occupations compared to men. Our most important result is that more clustered the occupation, the longer the commuting time, and the lower the probability of employment. The effect of occupational clustering on commuting time is larger for women regardless of household type and for those living in a relationship compared to singles. Our further result is that the greater the occupational diversity of the place of residence, the shorter the commuting time and higher the probability of employment, and the occupational diversity of the place of residence modifies the effect of occupational clustering on commuting time.

Return to skills and urban size: Evidence from the skill requirements of Hungarian firms



While most empirical studies document that cognitive and social skills are strong predictors of individual earnings, their impact is not homogenous in space. We argue that dense urban settings utilize cognitive and social skills more intensively than rural areas, therefore the labour market return to these skills is higher in cities. Using data from a representative survey recording the skills requirements of Hungarian firms, we show that social skills are rewarded more in dense urban areas. Surprisingly, this pattern is not observed for cognitive skills. We use instrumental variables strategy to correct for measurement errors in skills, and to deal with the endogeneity of agglomeration. Our results are robust to alternative agglomeration measures and a large set of controls, however, returns to skills vary considerably across worker groups and industries.

Másfél év pandémia Magyarországon: Mérséklődő különbségek a regionális és korspecifikus többlethalandóságban



A koronavírus-járvány első másfél évében 28,4 ezer fővel többen haltak meg Magyarországon, mint ahányan elhunytak volna ebben az időszakban a járvány nélkül. Az így mért többlethalandóság 1,7 ezerrel alacsonyabb, mint a koronavírus áldozataira vonatkozó hivatalos statisztika. Ez részben azzal magyarázható, hogy a koronavírus elleni védekezésnek köszönhetően elmaradt az influenzajárvány, ami korábban átlagosan évente 3 ezer ember halálát okozta. A második hullámhoz képest a harmadik hullámban csökkentek a többlethalandóságban mért különbségek mind a korcsoportok, mind a régiók között. Az előbbi esetében részben az oltási sorrendnek, illetve az elmaradt influenzának köszönhető, hogy jelentősen csökkent a 75 éves és annál idősebbek többlethalálozási rátája, miközben a 40-74 éves korosztályé kissé emelkedett. A régiók közül Észak-Magyarországon és Nyugat-Dunántúlon volt a legnagyobb a többlethalandóság, a fővárost is magában foglaló Közép-Magyarországon pedig a legalacsonyabb az országban. A férfiak többlethalandósági rátája a vizsgált másfél év egészében majdnem minden korcsoportban közel kétszer nagyobb volt mint a nőké.


Fazekas Károly - Kónya István - Krekó Judit

Az MTA Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézete 2000-ben indította el a magyarországi munkapiac és foglalkoztatáspolitika aktuális jellemzőit bemutató és a témakör egy-egy területét részletesen elemző Munkaerőpiaci tükör című évkönyvsorozatot. A kötetek tartalmának összeállítása során arra törekedtünk, hogy az államigazgatásban dolgozó szakemberek, az önkormányzatokban, a civil szervezetekben, a közigazgatási hivatalokban, az oktatási intézményekben, a  kutatóintézetekben dolgozók, a sajtó munkatársai jól hasznosítható információkat kapjanak a magyarországi munkapiaci folyamatokról, a foglalkoztatáspolitika jogszabályi és intézményi környezetéről, a magyarországi munkapiaccal foglalkozó hazai és nemzetközi kutatások friss eredményeiről. Az idén is kiválasztottunk egy területet, amelyet különösen fontosnak tartottunk a magyarországi munkapiaci folyamatok megértése, a tényeken alapuló foglalkoztatáspolitika eredményessége szempontjából. A szerkesztőbizottság döntése alapján az idei Közelkép a koronavírus járvány és a munkapiac összefüggéseit járja körül. A pandémia által okozott rövid távú munkapiaci folyamatok mellett a kötet egyes fejezeteiben a járvány hosszabb távú és közvetett hatásaival is foglalkozunk.


A könyv letölthető
egy file-ként pdf-ben
vagy fejezetenként:



Magyarországi munkapiac, 2020 (Bakó Tamás & Lakatos Judit)

Közelkép. A koronavírus-válság hatásai
Bevezető (Kónya István & Krekó Judit)
1. Munkaerőpiaci helyzet a járvány kitörése előtt (Köllő János, Oblath Gábor & Scharle Ágota)
2. Munkapiac, munkanélküliség a válság idején
2.1. Foglalkoztatás a járvány idején (Köllő János)
K2.1. A járvány és a Munkaerő-felmérés (Köllő János)
K2.2. Változás a foglalkoztatás mérésében 2021-ben (Köllő János)
2.2. Munkaerőpiaci áramlások a Covid-válság idején (Kónya István)
2.3. Mekkorára nőhetett a munkanélküliség – becslés internetes keresések alapján(Kónya István & Köllő János)
2.4. Állásvesztés, munkahely- és foglalkozásváltás a járulékbevallások adatai alapján (Kónya István & Krekó Judit)
2.5. Munkaerőpiaci alkalmazkodás a koronavírus-járvány idején – egy reprezentatív felmérés eredményei (Koltai Júlia, Prinz Dániel & Röst Gergely)
2.6. Regisztrált munkanélküliség a járvány alatt (Boza István & Krekó Judit)
2.7. Átlagos bérek kivételes időkben – a magyarországi keresetek alakulása a koronavírus-járvány első másfél évében (Gáspár Attila & Reizer Balázs)
K2.3. A magyar munkavállalók foglalkoztatása Ausztriában a koronavírus járvány előtt és alatt (Reizer Balázs)
3. A válság hatása a különböző társadalmi csoportokra
3.1. A lezárások hatása az anyákra (Szabó-Morvai Ágnes & Vonnák Dzsamila)
3.2. A koronavírus-járvány elleni óvintézkedések betartása és hatása az 50 év feletti európai lakosság körében (Bíró Anikó, Branyiczki Réka & Elek Péter)
3.3. A koronavírus-járvány és a magyar nyugdíjrendszer (Simonovits András)
3.4. Fiatalok a munkaerőpiacon és a munkaügyi rendszerben a járvány idején (Csillag Márton & Munkácsy Balázs)
4. Változó munkavégzés, távmunka
4.1. Kik dolgoznak otthonról végezhető állásokban? (Czaller László, Elekes Zoltán & Lengyel Balázs)
4.2. Mely iparágakban és régiókban van lehetőség hosszú távon is távmunkára? (Pető Rita & Koren Miklós)
4.3. Távmunka és munkahelyek: ingatlanpiaci hatások (Horváth Áron)
4.4. Közösségi munkahelyek Budapesten és a válság hatása (Kálmán Judit)
5. Munkaerőpiaci intézkedések
5.1. Nemzetközi és hazai intézkedések (Varga Júlia)
5.2. Munkahelymegtartó bértámogatások Magyarországon a járvány idején (Krekó Judit & Varga Júlia)
5.3. Mi történik az álláskeresőkkel, miután nyilvántartásba vették őket? (Boza István & Krekó Judit)
5.4. Közfoglalkoztatás a válság alatt (Bazsalya Balázs & Molnár György)
5.5. Mit kezdtek az állami foglalkoztatási szolgálatok a covid-válsággal? (Csillag Márton)
6. Oktatás, egészségügy, járványmagatartás
6.1. Részvétel az oktatásban, lemorzsolódás és évismétlés a covid járvány első évében (Hermann Zoltán)
6.2. Tanulási veszteség a covid következtében – szimulációs eredmények (Varga Júlia)
6.3. Távoktatás a koronavírus járvány idején (Hermann Zoltán, Horn Dániel, Varga Júlia & Varga Kinga)
6.4. A koronavírus-járvány hatása a halálozásra és az egészségügyi ellátórendszerre (Elek Péter, Mayer Balázs & Váradi Balázs)
6.5. Kockázati preferencia és a covid-19 (Horn Dániel, Khayouti Sára & Kiss Hubert János)

A munkapiaci szakpolitika eszközei (2020. június – 2021. május)(Hajdu Miklós, Makó Ágnes, Nábelek Fruzsina & Nyírő Zsanna)
A koronavírus-járvány munkaerőpiaci kezelése európában a járvány első hulláma után (Makó Ágnes & Nábelek Fruzsina)
A koronavírus-járvány hatásai a vállalatok működésére, létszámgazdálkodására. Percepciók, várakozások és a válságkezelés folyamata (Bacsák Dániel, Hajdu Miklós & Horváth Ágoston)

Munkaerőpiaci kutatások. Válogatott bibliográfia (Bálint Éva)


Távoktatási tapasztalatok a koronavírus járvány idején – Egy kérdőíves adatfelvétel eredményei



Ebben a tanulmányban egy, az iskoláskorú gyermeket nevelő családok körében végzett telefonos adatfelvétel első eredményeit mutatjuk be. Az adatfelvétel során a szülőket a koronavírus járvány következtében elrendelt távoktatással kapcsolatos tapasztalataikról kérdeztük. Az adatfelvételre 2021 áprilisában került sor, közvetlenül a teljes oktatási rendszerre kiterjedő egyik kötelező távoktatási időszakot követően. A tanulmány bemutatja, hogy a tanulók gondviselőinek a munkapiaci helyzetét figyelembe véve a háztartások mekkora hányadának okozott nehézséget a távoktatás, mennyire álltak rendelkezésre elkülöníthető terek a tanuláshoz, hogy milyen eszközöket és platformokat használtak a tanulók a távoktatásban hogyan változott a tanulási idő és milyen tanítási módszerek voltak jellemzőek az online oktatás során. A tanulmány egyszerű leíró elemzését adja e kérdéseknek.


Valentiny Pál • Antal-Pomázi Krisztina • Nagy Csongor István • Berezvai Zombor

A KRTK Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézetének verseny- és ágazati szabályozás kérdéskörével foglalkozó tizenharmadik kötetében elemezzük a versenyellenes cél fogalmával összefüggő bizonytalanságot és az ebből származó károkat, a versenyjogi kártérítési perek uniós helyzetét és a versenypolitika és a környezetvédelem kapcsolatát. Több tanulmányban foglalkozunk a versenyszabályozás világjárvány alatti működésével, a digitális piacok készülő szabályozásával és a biztosítási piac helyzetével. A kötet olvasói megismerkedhetnek a magyarországi mobilárak hedonikus módszerrel történő elemzésének eredményeivel és az energiahatékonysági kötelezettségi rendszer hazai bevezetésének állásával.


CÍMNEGYED TARTALOM ELŐSZÓ I. Áttekintés • MÚLT, JELEN, JÖVŐ AZ ÁGAZATI ÉS VERSENYSZABÁLYOZÁSBAN Nagy Csongor István • A versenyellenes cél fogalma a versenyjogban Teleki Lóránt • A versenyjogi jogsértésekkel kapcsolatos magánjogi jogérvényesítés uniós és hazai tapasztalatai Berezvai Zombor • Versenypolitika, fenntarthatóság és etika II. Betekintés • VERSENYSZABÁLYOZÁS JÁRVÁNY IDEJÉN Valentiny Pál • A versenyszabályozás a járvány alatt zavartalanul működik? Polyák Gábor–Pataki Gábor–Gosztonyi Gergely–Szalay Klára • Versenyjogi előzmények és piacszabályozási eszközök a digitális piacokról szóló európai rendelet tervezetében Firniksz Judit • Rangsorolás – új szabályozási igény a platformok és az információs túlterheltség korában Leskó Mariann • A biztosítási piac a koronavírus-járvány tükrében   III. Körbetekintés • A HÁLÓZATOS SZOLGÁLTATÁSOK PIACA ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁSA Pápai Zoltán–Nagy Péter • A magyarországi mobilárszínvonal hedonikus regressziós módszerrel történő vizsgálata Függelék Felsmann Balázs • Energiahatékonysági kötelezettségi rendszer Magyarországon – az első év tanulságai A SZERZŐKRŐL

Technology network structure conditions the economic resilience of regions



  This paper assesses the network robustness of the technological capability base of 269 European metropolitan areas against the potential elimination of some of their capabilities. By doing so it provides systematic evidence on how network robustness conditioned the economic resilience of these regions in the context of the 2008 economic crisis. The analysis concerns calls in the relevant literature for more in-depth analysis on the link between regional economic network structures and the resilience of regions to economic shocks. By adopting a network science approach that is novel to economic geographic inquiry, the objective is to stress-test the technological resilience of regions by utilizing information on the co-classification of CPC classes listed on European Patent Office patent documents. We find that European metropolitan areas show heterogeneous levels of technology network robustness. Further findings from regression analysis indicate that metropolitan regions with a more robust technological knowledge network structure exhibit higher levels of resilience with respect to changes in employment rates. This finding is robust to various random and targeted elimination strategies concerning the most frequently combined technological capabilities. Regions with high levels of employment in industry but with vulnerable technological capability base are particularly challenged by this aspect of regional economic resilience.

Time discounting predicts loan forbearance takeup



During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries eased the burden of borrowers through loan forbearance. Using a representative sample of the Hungarian adult population, we investigate if time discounting and locus of control predict who takes up loan forbearance. We find convincing evidence that time discouting associates with the resort to forbearance: individuals who discount the future less are less likely to take up forbearance, even if we take into account their educational level and financial status. Data suggest that the channel through which time discounting and loan forbearance are related is savings. There is no statistically significant relationship between locus of control and forbearance takeup.

Dissecting Global Value Chains: Evidence from the global automotive industry



The potential restructuring of global value chains (GVCs) is a widely discussed question in current debates. At the same time, a proper way of capturing these value chains is challenging. This paper focuses on the automotive industry, using detailed data on firm-to-firm transactions in Hungary, as well as on cross-border sales and purchases. Its aim is twofold, capturing to what extent firms being connected to a GVC differ from other firms in the same industry, and what is the impact of integration into GVCs. Findings suggest that firms being part of GVCs tend to be larger, more productive, foreign-owned and having a higher level of intangible capital. There is some suggestive evidence that entering the GVC has a positive impact on size, productivity and per capita wage for certain firm groups and it is preceeded by increased imports of capital. Finally, there are also differences by employee composition.

Egy korai francia szál David Ricardo adóelméletéhez



David Ricardo (és Adam Smith) adóelméletének interpretációja a mai napig angolszász szemléletű, noha fogantatása francia (is) volt. A történeti előzmények felelevenítésének szándékát megerősítette, hogy az utóbbi évtizedben egyre több szerző elmélettörténeti visszatekintéssel alapozza meg gondolatmenetét. A Smith és Ricardo nevével fémjelzett klasszikus iskoláig nyúlnak vissza. Hátterükben azonban ott voltak a fiziokraták, akiktől átvették adóelméletük lényegét, az egyetlen adó, a földtulajdonosi járadékok közvetlen adóztatásának elvét. A járadékalapú jövedelmek keletkeznek, de nem termelnek gazdagságot, a köz(össég) céljaira igénybe vehetők. Adó-incidencia elemzésük is fiziokrata logikát követett. A tanulmány ismerteti a fiziokrata adózás alapelvei mellett egyes jelentős képviselőinek reform elképzelését-gyakorlatát. . (Nicolas Baudeau, Mercier de la Rivière, Turgot).  Végül a korai magyar ár-reformok történetéhez fűzött megjegyzések zárják a munkát. François Quesnay "Second probleme économique" (1763) írásának magyar fordítása olvasható a tanulmány 2. részében.

The Labor Market and Fertility Impacts of Decreasing the Compulsory Schooling Age



While an extensive literature investigates the effects of longer schooling, we know very little about what happens when compulsory schooling is shortened. This paper looks at the effects of a reform in Hungary that decreased the school leaving age from 18 to 16. We show that the reform increased the probability of being neither in education nor in employment and being inactive at ages 16-18 substantially while its effects on employment are not significantly different from zero in most specifications. These effects are similar among boys and girls but strongly heterogeneous by social background and ability. The reform had a moderate effect on teenage motherhood on average, but it increased the probability of giving birth substantially among the most disadvantaged girls. We conclude that through its heterogenous effects, the reform is expected to widen social inequalities.

Prices and Quantities of New Products Hungarian Firm and Product Level Data

László Halpern


This paper analyzes the driving factors of growth of quantities and prices of the new products for Hungarian firms between 2001 and 2016. It investigates how price levels are correlated with firm and market characteristics, and the time path of the share of new products. Larger and more productive firms were able to sell their new products at higher prices, though larger competition had a dampening role. Pricing patterns differ for all products, higher share of foreign ownership leads to lower export and import prices. The share of new products is negatively affected by size corroborated by the negative effect of both productivity and foreign ownership. Productivity does not have any role in price and quantity growth rates.  

The effects of centralisation of school governance and funding on inequalities in education Lessons from a policy reform in Hungary



In 2013 the responsibility for school governance and funding has been transferred from local governments to a central government agency in Hungary. The key objectives of this reform, as stated by policy makers, was to mitigate interjurisdictional inequalities in education. This paper explores whether the reform had an equalizing effect on education resources on the one hand, and student achievement on the other. First, we estimate elasticities of per-student school expenditures to average income in municipalities. The results reveal a substantial equalization of school resources: before the reform rich municipalities had spent significantly more on education than poor ones, while after the reform no difference in school spending can be detected. Second, we ask whether the equalization of resources had an effect on inequalities in student achievement. Student achievement is measured by test score in grade 6 and grade 8. The results show no equalization in this respect, suggesting that inequalities in school quality were hardly affected by the reform.

Collective conceptualization of parental support of dual career athletes: The EMPATIA framework



This study aimed to use a concept mapping methodology (Trochim, 1986b) to develop a European framework of the needs of parents and guardians for supporting athletes combining sport and education (dual career). By means of a concept mapping methodology, we gathered 337 French, Irish, Italian, Portuguese, and Slovenian parents’ demographical data linked with their sorted and rated data of the 80 potential statements associated to parenting dual career athletes. In synthesizing the opinions, experience and needs of parents and guardians of dual career athletes, concept mapping served as a unique integration of qualitative and quantitative methods. The present framework provided sound theoretical underpinnings as well as quantitative basis to inform the development of educational platforms for empowering parenting dual carrier athletes, as well as be a foundation for future Pan-European dual career research on how these statements interact with each other, in different European contexts.

Multiple futures for society, research, and innovation in the European Union: Jumping ahead to 2038



We contribute to the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) literature in two ways: (i) we consider how societal aspects are taken into account in research and innovation activities in four fundamentally different futures, as opposed to analysing current practices; and (ii) put the emphasis on the framework conditions, as opposed to focussing on RRI principles and instruments. In the Kingdom of RRI citizens participate directly in decision-making processes; Fortress Europe depicts a libertarian system; Failed Democracy is a populist regime; while Benevolent Green Eurocrats describes a technocratically coordinated strong state. The RRI concept is ignored, manipulated, or rather selectively applied in the latter three scenarios. The scenarios offer novel insights into the nature and repercussions of possible policy problems. We discuss issues related to efficacy and efficiency of policy-making; legitimacy of research and innovation activities; societal involvement; equity; and freedom of research in each scenario. We also posit that there is room for safeguarding meaningful interactions between the societal and professional actors in an innovation system even in the harshest framework conditions.   Megjelent mint: Multiple futures for society, research, and innovation in the European Union: Jumping ahead to 2038, Journal of Responsible Innovation DOI:  

Intergenerational educational mobility – the role of non-cognitive skills



  While it has been shown that university attendance is strongly predicted by parental education, we know very little about why some potential ‘first in family’ or first-generation students make it to university and others do not. This paper looks at the role of non-cognitive skills in the university participation of this disadvantaged group in England. We find that conditional on national, high-stakes exam scores and various measures of socioeconomic background, having higher levels of non-cognitive skills, specifically locus of control, academic self-concept, work ethic, and self-esteem, in adolescence is positively related to intergenerational educational mobility to university. Our results indicate that having higher non-cognitive skills helps potential first in family university students to compensate for their relative disadvantage, and they are especially crucial for boys. The most important channel of this relationship seems to be through educational attainment at the end of compulsory schooling.  

Do co-worker networks increase or decrease productivity differences? An agent-based model



Do labor mobility, and co-worker networks contribute to convergence or divergence between regions? Based on the previous literature, labor mobility contributes to knowledge transfer between firms. Therefore, mobility may contribute to decreasing productivity differences, while limited mobility to sustaining higher differences. The effect of co-worker networks, however, can be twofold in this process. They transmit information about potential jobs, which may enhance mobility of workers, even between regions, and this enhanced mobility may contribute to levelling differences. But if mobility between regions involves movement costs, co-worker networks may concentrate locally that may contribute to persistence of regional differences. In this paper we build an agent-based model of labor mobility across firms and regions with knowledge spillovers that reflects key empirical observations on labor markets. We analyze the impact of network information provided about potential employers in this model and find that it contributes to increasing inter-regional mobility, and subsequently to decreasing regional differences. We also find that density of co-worker networks, and also their regional concentration decrease, if network information is available.

Uniqueness of Clearing Payment Matrices in Financial Networks



We study bankruptcy problems in financial networks in the presence of general bankruptcy laws. The set of clearing payment matrices is shown to be a lattice, which guarantees the existence of a greatest and a least clearing payment. Multiplicity of clearing payment matrices is both a theoretical and a practical concern. We present a new condition for uniqueness that generalizes all the existing conditions proposed in the literature. Our condition depends on the decomposition of the financial network into strongly connected components. A strongly connected component which contains more than one agent is called a cycle and the involved agents are called cyclical agents. If there is a cycle without successors, then one of the agents in such a cycle should have a positive endowment. The division rule used by a cyclical agent with a positive endowment should be positive monotonic and the rule used by a cyclical agent with a zero endowment should be strictly monotonic. Since division rules involving priorities are not positive monotonic, uniqueness of the clearing payment matrix is a much bigger concern for such division rules than for proportional ones. We also show how uniqueness of clearing payment matrices is related to continuity of bankruptcy rules.

Financial crisis and inequality in Hungary



The goal of this paper is to analyze the connections Hungarian income and wealth distribution on the one hand, and the macroeconomics impacts of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on the other hand. To do this, I build a heterogenous agent, dynamic, general equilibrium model, which I calibrate using Hungarian income distribution data before the crisis. The model is then used to study both the impact of the financial crisis on income and wealth inequality, and the role of income and wealth inequality in the macroeconomic developments after the crisis. Results indicate that (i) the long-run capital stock rises, and the interest rate falls, but the effect is quantitatively small; (ii) the long-run income and wealth distributions only change moderately; and (iii) the short-run consumption response of low-wealth household is very strong, and drives a sizable aggregate consumption drop as well.

Wage Structure and Inequality: The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity

Boza István


This study aims to contribute to the literature of firms and occupations as prominent drivers of wage-inequality in multiple ways. First, we synthesize novel modelling approaches of recent studies in the field and use administrative linked employer-employee panel data from an Eastern European country, Hungary, to assess the contribution of individual, firm and job heterogeneity – and their interactions – to overall wage inequality. Consistent with earlier findings from Western Europe, Scandinavia, the US and Brazil, we show that firm heterogeneity provides around 22%, individual heterogeneity 50%, and occupational heterogeneity 8% of overall wage dispersion, with wage sorting between firms and individuals in itself explaining around 9%. Notably, around half of this contribution is accountable to observable sub-components of individual and firm wage effects. Also, the same magnitude of assortativity can be found between individuals and occupations. Utilizing unique features of our data, we compare mathematics and literature test score records of 10th grade students to their future labor market outcomes, finding a positive correlation between test scores and future firm value added, a direct evidence for assortative matching in productivity. Finally we assess sorting along observable characteristics, such as gender, education, occupation or age of workers, and the ownership of employers.

Longevity gap and public pensions: a minimal model



The strong and increasing positive correlation between lifetime income and life expectancy (the longevity gap) has recently been widely studied. In this paper we employ the simplest, minimal model to demonstrate the impact of this long-neglected fact on the various types of public pension systems, especially on the issue of progressivity and neutrality.

Self-respecting worker in the gig economy: A dynamic principal-agent model



We introduce a dynamic principal-agent model to understand the nature of contracts between an employer and an independent gig worker. We model the worker’s self-respect with an endogenous participation constraint; he accepts a job offer if and only if its utility is at least as large as his reference value, which is based on the average of previously realized wages. If the dynamically changing reference value capturing the worker’s demand is too high, then no contract is struck until the reference value hits a threshold. Below the threshold, contracts are offered and accepted, and the worker’s wage demand follows a stochastic process. We apply our model to different labor market structures and investigate first-best and second-best solutions. We show that a far-sighted employer may sacrifice instantaneous profit to regulate the agent’s demand. Employers who can afford to stall production due to a lower subjective discount rate will obtain higher profits. Our model captures the worker’s bargaining power by a vulnerability parameter that measures the rate at which his wage demand decreases when unemployed. With a low vulnerability parameter, the worker can afford to go unemployed and need not take a job at all costs. Conversely, a worker with high vulnerability can be exploited by the employer, and in this case our model also exhibits self-exploitation.

Social Mobility and Political Regimes: Intergenerational Mobility in Hungary, 1949-2017



This paper measures social mobility rates in Hungary 1949-2017, for upper class and underclass families, using surnames to measure social status. In these years there were two very different social regimes. The first was the Hungarian People’s Republic, 1949-1989, a Communist regime with an avowed aim of favouring the working class. Then the modern liberal democracy, 1989-2020, a free-market economy. We find five surprising things. First, social mobility rates were low for both upper- and lower-class families 1949-2017, with an underlying intergenerational status correlation of 0.6-0.8. Second, social mobility rates under communism were the same as in the subsequent capitalist regime. Third, the Romani minority throughout both periods showed even lower social mobility rates. Fourth, the descendants of the noble class in Hungary in the eighteenth century were still significantly privileged in 1949 and later. And fifth, while social mobility rates did not change measurably during the transition, the composition of the political elite changed fast and sharply.

The labor market returns to ‘first in family’ university graduates



We examine how first in family (FiF) graduates (those whose parents do not have university degrees) fare on the labor market in England. We find that among women, FiF graduates earn 7.4% less on average than graduate women whose parents have a university degree. For men, we do not find a FiF wage penalty. A decomposition of the wage difference between FiF and non-FiF graduates reveals that FiF men earn higher returns on their endowments than non-FiF men and thus compensate for their relative social disadvantage, while FiF women do not. We also show that a substantial share of the graduate gender wage gap is due to, on the one hand, women being more likely to be FiF than men and, on the other hand, that the FiF wage gap is gendered. We provide some context, offer explanations, and suggest implications of these findings.

Confidence in public institutions is critical in containing the COVID-19 pandemic



This paper investigates the relative importance of confidence in public institutions in explaining cross-country differences in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We extend the related literature by employing regression and machine learning methods to identify the most critical predictors of deaths attributed to the pandemic. We find that a one standard deviation increase (e.g., the actual difference between the US and Finland) in confidence is associated with 350.9 (95% CI -531.922 - -169.831, p=0.000) fewer predicted deaths per million inhabitants. Confidence in public institutions is one of the most important predictors of deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared to country-level measures of individual health risks, the health system, demographics, economic and political development, and social capital. Our results suggest that effective policy implementation requires citizens to cooperate with their governments, and willingness to cooperate relies on confidence in public institutions.  

Yes, You Can! Effects of Transparent Admission Standards on High School Track Choice: A Randomized Field Experiment

Tamás Keller – Károly Takács – Felix Elwert


High school track choice determines college access in many countries. We hypothesize that some qualified students avoid the college-bound track simply because they overestimate admission requirements. To test this hypothesis, we designed a randomized field experiment that communicated the admission standards of local secondary schools on the academic track to students in Hungary before the application deadline. We targeted the subset of students (“seeds”) who occupied the most central position in the classroom-social networks, aiming to detect both direct effects on the track choice of targeted seeds and spillover effects on their untreated peers. We found neither a direct effect nor a spillover effect on students’ applications or admissions on average. Further analyses, however, revealed theoretically plausible heterogeneity in the direct causal effect of the intervention on the track choice of targeted seeds. Providing information about admission standards increased applications and admissions to secondary schools on the academic track among seeds who had a pre-existing interest in the academic track but were unsure of their chances of admission. This demonstrates that publicizing admissions standards can set students on a more ambitious educational trajectory. We discuss implications for theory and policy.

Állami segítséggel történő startup finanszírozás nemzetközi tapasztalatai



Az államnak fontos szerepe van a startupok minden egyes fejlődési szakaszának finanszírozásában. A startupok finanszírozásának túlnyomó részét vissza nem térítendő állami támogatás és a hitelnyújtás biztosítja, mely utóbbit állami garanciavállalás is segíti. A kockázati tőke szerepe sokkal kisebb. Az állam azonban ezt is segítheti, mégpedig elsősorban a privát befektetőkkel való társfinanszírozás és a privát kockázati tőkealapok tőkéjének megemelése révén. A kockázati tőkealapok feltőkésítésének előmozdításához fontos eszköz az alapok privát befektetői által igénybe vehető állami garancia. Az állam a startupok finanszírozásában legeredményesebben nem a cégeknek közvetlenül nyújtott pénzeszközökkel, hanem a finanszírozás katalizátoraként, a piac privát szereplőinek ösztönzésével tud részt venni. Az alábbi elemzés bemutatja, hogy az állami segítség nemzetközileg kialakult megoldásai közül melyek és milyen sikerrel terjedtek el.

Escaping from Low-Wage Employment: The Role of Co-worker Networks



Low-wage jobs are often regarded as dead-ends in the labour market careers of young people. Previous research focused on disentangling to what degree the association between a low-wage job at the start of working life and limited chances of transitioning to better-paid employment is causal or spurious. Less attention has been paid to the channels that may facilitate the upward wage mobility of low-wage workers. We focus on such mechanisms, and we scrutinize the impact of social ties to higher-educated co-workers. Due to knowledge spillovers, job referrals, as well as firm-level productivity gains, having higher-educated co-workers may improve an individual’s chances of transitioning to a better-paid job. We use linked employer-employee data from longitudinal Swedish registers and panel data models that incorporate measures of low-wage workers’ social ties to higher-educated co-workers. Our results confirm that having social ties to higher-educated co-workers increases individual chances of transitioning to better-paid employment.

The Effect of Involuntary Retirement on Healthcare Use and Health Status



We analyse the causal effect of involuntary retirement on detailed indicators of healthcare use and health status. Our identification strategy is based on a pension reform in Hungary which forced public sector workers above the statutory retirement age to full time retirement. Using rich administrative data, we find that on the three-year horizon, involuntary retirement decreases the number of primary care doctor visits, the consumption of antiinfectives for systemic use and drugs of the respiratory system, and the non-zero spending on antiinfectives, the drugs of the alimentary tract and metabolism and of the cardiovascular system. We also find that the impact on the latter two drug categories is driven by the drop in income due to involuntary retirement. The effects of involuntary retirement are comparable to the short-run effects of voluntary retirement, identified from a change in the statutory retirement age. We conclude that there is little evidence for health deteriorating effects of involuntary retirement and provide explanations for the possible mechanisms behind our results.

Not just words! Effects of a light-touch randomized encouragement intervention on students’ exam grades, self-efficacy, motivation, and test anxiety



Motivated by the self-determination theory of psychology, we ask how simple school practices can forge students’ engagement with the academic aspect of school life. We carried out a large-scale preregistered randomized field experiment with a crossover design, involving all the students of the University of Szeged in Hungary. Our intervention consisted of an automated encouragement message that praised students’ past achievements and signaled trust in their success. The treated students received encouragement messages before their exam via two channels: e-mail and SMS message. Control students did not receive any encouragement. Our primary analysis compared the end-of-semester exam grades of the treated and control students, obtained from the university’s registry. Our secondary analysis explored the difference between the treated and control students’ self-efficacy, motivation, and test anxiety, obtained from an online survey before students’ exams. In the whole sample, we did not find an average treatment effect on students’ exam grades. However, in the subsample of those who answered the endline survey, the treated students reported higher self-efficacy than the control students. The treatment affected students’ motivation before their first exam—but not before their second—and did not affect students’ test anxiety. Our results indicate that automated encouragement messages sent shortly before exams do not boost students’ exam grades. Nevertheless, since occasionally received light-touch encouragement messages instantly increased students’ self-efficacy even before an academically challenging exam situation, we conclude that encouraging students systematically and not just shortly before their exams might lead to positive emotional involvement and help create a school climate that engages students with the academic aspect of school life.  

Co-worker networks and firm performance



Firms and employees can benefit from information diffusion through social connections at other firms. Therefore, co-worker networks observed in collaborative projects or assumed from job co-occurrence have been analyzed in a wide literature ranging from management to economics, and economic geography. Yet, beyond case-studies, the actual information flows are seldom identifiable in these networks and previous focus on firm- or employee benefits was mainly limited to dyadic relations across firms. To address this gap, we simulate co-worker networks within firms from large-scale administrative data, for which we use parameters fitted to information networks that we collected with a survey and from social media profiles. Then, following all individuals through job moves over their career, we establish the dynamic co-worker network across firms of the entire ICT industry in Sweden. Fixed-effect regression models suggest that growth of average income is significantly higher in those firms that have diverse connections but are central to the network as well. We find that large firms benefit more from triadic closure in the co-worker network, stressing the role cohesive relations in sharing complex knowledge. Our results highlight that firm growth is embedded into the eco-system of co-worker networks that facilitate information flows across firms.  

KERTESI GÁBOR 70 ÉVES : Írások neki és róla

Patkós Anna - Sebes Katalin

KERTESI GÁBOR 70 ÉVES Írások neki és róla A kötetet összeállította és az Előszót írta: Köllő János Olvasószerkesztő: Patkós Anna és Sebes Katalin Borítóterv: Kempfner Zsófia Kötetterv és nyomdai előkészítés: Kravjánszki Róbert

Product Quality and Innovation Hungarian Firm Level Data



Innovation enhances other performance indicators of a firm beside productivity. Buyers are ready to pay higher price for higher quality or more suitable products due to innovation. Product prices, however, reflect the market position of the firm, too. Demand functions estimated using transaction level trade and domestic sales data yield firm level aggregated measure for quality. Productivity, size and foreign ownership increase, while innovation decreases our quality measure. Deeper analysis of innovation is needed in order to understand the reason for these seemingly contradicting results.

“Nominális”, reálgazdasági és árszintfelzárkózás az Európai Unióban 1995 és 2019 között



Az országok közötti jelentős fejlettségi különbségek árszintkülönbségekkel járnak együtt, és a fejlettségi szintek közeledését – a reálgazdasági konvergenciát – hosszabb távon az árszintek közeledése kíséri. Bár az egy főre jutó GDP-szintek folyó árfolyamon történő, vagyis nominális összehasonlítása alkalmatlan a fejlettségi különbségeknek és az országok közötti reálgazdasági közeledésnek a kifejezésére, a relatív nominális szintek változásának reál- és ár-összetevőre való felbontása megmutatja, hogy egy fejletlen ország „nominális felzárkózása” mennyiben származik abból, hogy az előállított javak egy főre jutó mennyisége relatíve bővült, illetve abból, hogy a javak, azonos pénzben kifejezve, viszonylag megdrágultak. A relatív nominális változások kétféle szemléletnek megfelelő statisztikai forrás alapján bonthatók ár-, illetve reálösszetevőre, amelyek az Európai Unió (EU) több tagországára nézve eltérő jelzéseket adnak az ár-, illetve reálfelzárkózás alakulásáról. Az alternatív felbontások eredményei azonban megegyeznek abban, hogy az EU közép- és kelet európai tagországainak gyors „nominális felzárkózása” 1995 és 2008 között nagyobb részben az euróban kifejezett árszint-felzárkózáshoz (a valuták reálfelértékelődéséhez) köthető, és a 2008 utáni időszak „nominális elakadása” a relatív árszint-felzárkózás megtorpanásához/megfordulásának tulajdonítható: a GDP/fő-vel mért reálfelzárkózás lassult ugyan, de nem állt meg. Mellékletek a műhelytanulmány alapján készült, a Külgazdaság 2021/9-10. számában publikált, A „nominális felzárkózás” időben változó összetevői: reálgazdasági és árszintfelzárkózás az Európai Unióban 1995 és 2019 között című cikkhez.  

Repeated collaboration of inventors across European regions



This paper explores the spatial patterns and underlying determinants of repeated inventor collaboration across European NUTS 3 regions. It is found that only a small fraction of co-inventor linkages across regions are repeated, while community detection reveals that these collaborations are clustered in geographical space more intensively compared with collaboration in general. Additional results from gravity modelling indicate that links in the inter-regional co-patenting network emerge mainly through the triadic collaboration of regions, while geographical proximity becomes the most influential factor for repeating co-inventor ties. In addition to that, the combination of technological similarity and shared third partner regions offer a premium for the likelihood of repeating collaboration, but only when geographical proximity is present as an enabler.


Inequality is rising where social network segregation interacts with urban topology



Social networks amplify inequalities by fundamental mechanisms of social tie formation such as homophily and triadic closure. These forces sharpen social segregation, which is reflected in fragmented social network structure. Geographical impediments such as distance and physical or administrative boundaries also reinforce social segregation. Yet, less is known about the joint relationships between social network structure, urban geography, and inequality. In this paper we analyze an online social network and find that the fragmentation of social networks is significantly higher in towns in which residential neighborhoods are divided by physical barriers such as rivers and railroads. Towns in which neighborhoods are relatively distant from the center of town and amenities are spatially concentrated are also more socially segregated. Using a two-stage model, we show that these urban geography features have significant relationships with income inequality via social network fragmentation. In other words, the geographic features of a place can compound economic inequalities via social networks.


Power ranking of the members of the Agricultural Committee of the European Parliament



We aim to identify the most influential members of the Agricultural Committee of the European Parliament (COMAGRI). Unlike previous studies that were based on case studies or interviews with stakeholders, we analyse the voting power of MEPs using a spatial Banzhaf power index. We identify critical members: members whose votes are necessary to form winning coalitions. We found that rapporteurs, EP group coordinators and MEPs from countries with high relative Committee representations, such as Ireland, Poland or Romania are powerful actors. Italy emerges as the most influential member state, while France seems surprisingly weak.

A kognitív készségek hatása a diplomások bérére



Ebben a cikkben Magyarországon elsőként vizsgálom a kognitív készségek szerepét a felsőoktatási végzettség megtérülésében. Az adatok a KRTK Adatbank Kapcsolt Államigazgatási Paneladatbázisából származnak (Sebők 2019). Az adatforrás lehetővé teszi a különböző államigazgatási adatbázisok együttes vizsgálatát a magyar lakosság 50%-os mintáján. Az elemzésben a 2008-ban 10. osztályos középiskolások kompetenciaeredményeit, mint a korai kognitív készségek proxy változóját használom a hosszú távú diplomás pályakövetéses vizsgálatomban. A tanulmányban az oktatás hozamszámítási megközelítései közül a kereseti függvények módszerét alkalmazom.

Income gradient of pharmaceutical panic buying at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic



We analyse the timing, magnitude and income dependence of pharmaceutical panic buying around the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary. We use district-level monthly and daily administrative data on detailed categories of pharmaceutical purchases, merge them to income statistics and estimate multilevel panel models. Our main results are as follows. First, the days of therapy (DOT) of pharmaceutical purchases increased by more than 30% in March 2020, when major lockdown measures were announced. This pattern holds for almost all categories of pharmaceuticals. Second, shortly after the panic reactions, the aggregate amount of pharmaceutical purchases returned to their pre-shock levels, however, the frequency of pharmacy visits decreased. Third, the panic buying reaction was significantly stronger in richer geographical areas, where – according to the daily data – people also reacted earlier to the pandemic-related news. Overall, the results suggest that panic buying of pharmaceuticals can have detrimental effects on vulnerable populations.

A koronavírus-járvány első hullámának hatása a foglalkoztatásra és a vállalatok árbevételére



Tanulmányunkban a KSH munkaerő-felmérése és havi teljesítménystatisztikája segítségével vizsgáljuk a koronavírus járvány első hullámának azonnali gazdasági hatásait. A mikroadatok vizsgálata lehetővé teszi, hogy az aggregált statisztikáknál részletesebben mérjük fel a gazdasági visszaesés által okozott károkat. Az eredmények a 2008-2009-esnél is súlyosabb visszaesésre és az egyenlőtlenség növekedésére utalnak. A diplomások az átlagnál jobban vészelték át a válságot: körükben kisebb volt az állásvesztés valószínűsége, nagyobb arányban tértek át távmunkára és az őt alkalmazó cégek árbevétele is kevesebbet esett. A külföldi tulajdonú exportáló vállalatok árbevétele az átlagosnál nagyobbat zuhant márciusban, de nyárra már megközelítette a kora tavaszi értékét. Ezzel szemben a magyar tulajdonú cégeknél a visszaesés lassabb, de tartósabb volt.  

High-stakes national testing, gender and school stress in Europe – A difference-in-difference analysis.

Björn Högberg – Dániel Horn


Outcomes related to the wellbeing of students are increasingly being recognized as valuable objectives for education systems. In this study, we ask if high-stakes testing affects school-related stress among students and if there are gender differences in these effects. We combine macro-level data on high-stakes testing with survey data on more than 300,000 students aged 10-16 years in 31 European countries, from three waves (2002, 2006 and 2010) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. With variation in high-stakes testing across countries, years and grade levels, we use a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DD) design for identification of causal effects. We find that high-stakes testing increases self-reported school-related stress by almost 10 % of a standard deviation. This is primarily driven by a strong effect for girls, meaning that high-stakes testing increases the gender gap in school-related stress. The results are robust to a range of sensitivity analyses.

Versengeni és együttműködni? Egy reprezentatív felmérés tanulságai



Ebben a tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk két reprezentatív felmérés segítségével, hogy egyéni szinten hogyan viszonyul egymáshoz a versengés és az együttműködés, illetve ezek hogyan függnek össze a végzettséggel. Az első eredményünk az, hogy a versengés és az együttműködés pozitívan és szignifikánsan korrelál, még akkor is, ha figyelembe vesszük a válaszadó korát, nemét, a lakhelyének településtípusát és a régióját. Másrészt azt találjuk, hogy a versengés és az együttműködés nemlineárisan függ össze a végzettséggel. Magasabb fokú versengés és együttműködés több oktatásban töltött évvel jár együtt, de egyre csökkenő mértékben. Továbbá, a túl magas együttműködés és versengési értékkel a végzettség alacsonyabb szintje jár együtt.

Introducing flexible retirement : a dynamic model



Typically economists arguing for flexible (or variable) retirement age, but they rely on steady state analysis.  In this paper we consider the replacement of a mandatory retirement system with a flexible one in real time. We show that even if early retirement is duly punished, diminishing the effective retirement age by 1 year raises the first year's and the total expenditures during transition by 8% and  70% of the original annual expenditure, respectively.

Statisztikai jelentés a gyermekegészség állapotáról Magyarországon a 21. század második évtizedében



ÖSSZEFOGLALÓ Kutatásunk a magyarországi gyerekek egészségi állapotában fennálló társadalmi különbségeket vizsgálja a 2010-es években. Az elemzések alapját számos adminisztratív adatbázis és survey jellegű információforrás adja. Beszámolónk összegyűjti, egységes statisztikai keretbe rendezi a rendelkezésre álló mikroszintű adatok többségét, és a laikus közvélemény számára is követhető formában értelmezi őket. A vizsgálatunk rámutat arra, hogy gyermekek egészsége milyen nagy mértékben függ össze azzal, hogy milyen társadalmi közegbe születtek, hogy milyen életkörülmények és jövedelmi viszonyok között élnek, illetve hogy milyen viselkedési sajátosságokkal rendelkeznek ők maguk és a szüleik.

Time patterns of precautionary health behaviours during an easing phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe



Using data from the COVID-19 questionnaire of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we investigate the time patterns of precautionary health behaviours of individuals aged 50 and above during the summer of 2020, an easing phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We also examine how these health behaviours differ by the presence of chronic conditions such as hypertension, high cholesterol level, heart disease, diabetes or chronic bronchitis, which can be considered as risk factors for COVID-19. Our results suggest that while on average, people became less precautious during our analysed time period, this is less so for those who are at higher risk. We also document large regional differences in precautionary health behaviours and show that higher risk individuals are on average more cautious in all regions. We conclude that people adjusted their health behaviours in line with the generally understood risk of the COVID-19 disease. At the same time, our results also point out divergences in the level of willingness to take different precautionary steps.

Ranking Institutions within a Discipline: The Steep Mountain of Academic Excellence



We present a novel algorithm to rank smaller academic entities such as university departments or research groups within a research discipline. The Weighted Top Candidate (WTC) algorithm is a generalisation of an expert identification method. The axiomatic characterisation of WTC shows why it is especially suitable for scientometric purposes. The key axiom is stability -- the selected institutions support each other's membership. The WTC algorithm, upon receiving an institution citation matrix, produces a list of institutions that can be deemed experts of the field. With a parameter we can adjust how exclusive our list should be. By completely relaxing the parameter, we obtain the largest stable set -- academic entities that can qualify as experts under the mildest conditions. With a strict setup, we obtain a short list of the absolute elite. We demonstrate the algorithm on a citation database compiled from game theoretic literature published between 2008--2017. By plotting the size of the stable sets with respect to exclusiveness, we can obtain an overview of the competitiveness of the field. The diagram hints at how difficult it is for an institution to improve its position.

The Role of the Gender Composition of Performance Feedback on Peers in Shaping Persistence and Performance



We study the impact of the gender composition of a scoreboard on the persistence and performance of players in an online game. Players were randomly selected into eight groups, defined along two dimensions: they saw high or average scores on a scoreboard (score level), and within each of these, they saw either 3 male, 2 male and one female, 1 male and 2 female, or 3 female names associated with the scores (gender composition). Based on 1140 participants, we find that males are generally less responsive to performance information on other participants. Compared to the baseline of all male names on the scoreboard, females play fewer games when they see only female names, but more games when they see mixed gender names with high scores. Their performance (best score) increases significantly when they see at least one female name and high scores. This result is in line with the importance of female-specific reference points – or role models - in encouraging females’ participation and higher performance in competitive settings. It supports the use of policies aimed at providing these, such as the introduction of female role models and the public acknowledgement of high performing females.  

Post-conception heat exposure increases clinically unobserved pregnancy losses



Evidence of the relationship between temperature during pregnancy and human embryo mortality is limited. Most importantly, the literature lacks causal estimations and studies on early pregnancy losses. Here, we estimate the impact of early pregnancy temperature exposure on the clinically unobserved pregnancy loss rate. We use administrative data of clinically observed pregnancies from more than three decades for Hungary. We apply an empirical approach that allows us to infer the impact of temperature on the clinically unobserved pregnancy loss rate from the estimated effects on the clinically observed conception rate. The results show that exposure to hot temperatures during the first few weeks after the conception week increases the clinically unobserved pregnancy loss rate, whereas exposure to colder temperatures seems to decrease it. Importantly, the temperature-induced changes represent changes in the total number of pregnancy losses rather than a compositional change between clinically observed and clinically unobserved pregnancy losses.

Gender differences in preferences of adolescents: evidence from a large-scale classroom experiment



In this study, we estimate unadjusted and adjusted gender gap in time preference, risk attitudes, altruism, trust, trustworthiness, cooperation and competitiveness using data on 1088 high-school students from 53 classes. These data, collected by running incentivized experiments in Hungarian classrooms, are linked to an administrative data source on the students’ standardized test scores, grades and family background. We find that after taking into account class fixed effects, females are significantly more altruistic (both with classmates and schoolmates), but are less present-biased, less risk tolerant, less trusting, less trustworthy and less competitive than males. At the same time we do not observe significant gender differences in patience, time inconsistency and cooperation at the 5% significance level. We also show that these initial gender differences do not change even if we control for age, family background, cognitive skills and school grades in a regression framework. Moreover, the gender gap also remains in all but one of these preferences even if we control for the other preference domains, suggesting that only risk preferences are confounded by the other preferences, at least as the gender gap in these preferences is concerned.

Gender Differences in the Skill Content of Jobs



There is significant heterogeneity in actual skill use within occupations even though occupations are differentiated by the tasks workers should perform during work. Using data on 12 countries which are available both in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey and International Social Survey Program, we show that women use their cognitive skills less than men even within the same occupation. The gap in skill intensity cannot be explained by differences in worker characteristics or in cognitive skills. Instead, we show that living in a partnership significantly increases the skill use of men compared with women. We argue that having a partner affects skill use through time allocation as the gender penalty of partnered women is halved once we control for working hours and hours spent on housework. Finally, we do not find evidence of workplace discrimination against women.

Competition , Subjective Feedback, and Gender Gaps in Performance



We study gender differences in the impacts of competition and subjective feedback, using an online game with pop-up texts and graphics as treatments. We define 8 groups: players see a Top 10 leaderboard or not (competitiveness), and within these, they receive no feedback, supportive feedback, rewarding feedback, or "trash talk" (feedback type). Based on 5191 participants, we find that competition only increases the performance of males. However, when it is combined with supportive feedback, the performance of females also increases. This points to individualized feedback as a potential tool for decreasing gender gaps in competitive settings such as STEM fields.

Az ingázási időre ható tényezők és változásuk 1990 és 2011 között Magyarországon



Az ingázással töltött idő hatással lehet a munkakínálatra és nagymértékben befolyásolja az egyén jólétét. Jelen tanulmányunk egyik legjelentősebb eredménye, hogy míg a nemzetközi irodalom szerint a férfiak és a nők ingázása közötti időben mutatkozó különbség stabil, addig Magyarországon a vizsgált időszakban ez nem volt igaz: az adatok arra engednek következtetni, hogy a nők egyre jobban felzárkóztak a férfiakhoz mind a foglalkoztatás esélyében, mind az ingázási időben, illetve a megtett távolságban. Számos egyéni, valamint a helyi munkaerőpiacot jellemző változó hatását vizsgáltuk, ám eredményeink szerint a lakóhely földrajzi elhelyezkedése lényegesen nagyobb hatással bír az ingázási időre, mint bármelyik egyéni szintű változó (kivéve a foglalkozás). A Közép-magyarországi régióban lakókhoz képest az ország bármelyik másik régiójában lakók napi 17–30 perccel rövidebb ingázási idővel számolhatnak, ami komoly kihatással lehet az ingázás társadalmi költségeire és jóléti hatásaira.

The short-term effect of COVID-19 on schoolchildren’s generosity



We conduct two waves (W1 and W2) of an unincentivized online survey to measure the change in altruism of primary school students (N=983) toward classmates and schoolmates during the school closures due to COVID-19. The W1 responses arrived, on average, after 39 days of online education, while W2 responses arrived, on average, 31 days after W1. There is a small, but insignificant decline in generosity both towards classmates and schoolmates between waves. Students with better cognitive abilities are less likely to become selfish toward schoolmates.


Pál Valentiny, Zombor Berezvai, Csongor István Nagy

The Institute of Economics, CERS launched a new series of publications entitled “Verseny és szabályozás” (Competition and Regulation) in 2007. Twelve annual volumes have been published so far in Hungarian. The current volume is the second one in English, and it contains 10 selected translations from the crop of the last four years. It offers the reader a glimpse into the current state of research in its chosen field in Hungary.